NFL Picks: Week 12 Early Line Movement And Betting Trends

NFL Picks: Week 12 Early Line Movement And Betting Trends

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

NFL Picks: Week 12 Early Line Movement And Betting Trends

The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it is a significant move that warrants attention. 

Now that we have 11 weeks in the books, there is a sense of urgency from several teams this week if they still want to stay alive for playoff contention. There are five games with at least a seven-point spread this week. With each week of the season, we are seeing more injury impact which is contributing to significant line movement.

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Latest NFL Week 12 Odds

For more, take a look at NFL Week 12 odds.

Buffalo Bills (-10.0) @ Detroit Lions O/U 51.5

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (-7.0) O/U 43.0

New England Patriots @ Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) O/U 43.5

Denver Broncos (-2.5) @ Carolina Panthers O/U 36.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.0) @ Cleveland Browns O/U 44.5

Baltimore Ravens (-4.0) @ Jacksonville Jaguars O/U 46.5

Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins (-10.0) O/U 45.5

Chicago Bears @ New YorK Jets (-3.5) O/U 46.5

Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) @ Tennessee Titans O/U 43.0

Atlanta Falcons @ Washington Commanders (-3.0) O/U 42.0

Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) @ Arizona Cardinals O/U 47.5

Las Vegas Raiders @ Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) O/U 47.5

Los Angeles Rams @ Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) O/U 45.5

New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers (-8.5) O/U 41.5

Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) O/U 45.0

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts (-3.0) O/U 39.5 

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NFL Week 12 Line Movement: Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins  

The Dolphins opened -7.0 home favorites in this game and have seen the number move to -9.5, and now -10.0. With the way Miami's offense has been playing and how putrid the Texans looked Sunday, I think we see this number continue to move north to as high as -12.0 by kickoff.  The Texans were not expected to be good this year, so this line move is all on the Dolphins side who are coming off a bye. With their high octane passing game, covering -10.0 or higher is doable even in this landscape of double digit underdogs posting covers at a high clip. 

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NFL Week 12 Line Movement: Las Vegas Raiders at Seattle Seahawks

This game has seen a 5.5 line move since opening in May with the Raiders originally -2.0, but now it is the Seahawks who are -3.5 home favorites. The Seahawks were expected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL due to the quarterback position being Geno Smith / Drew Lock and the Raiders were expected to contend for a playoff spot after trading for wide receiver Davante Adams

But the Raiders have blown huge leads repeatedly and Geno Smith has performed well above expectations for the Seahawks. This line move is probably about 2.0 points of a move on the Raiders, and 3.5 of a move on the Seahawks. People also have to remember that the 12th man is still a huge factor for Seattle at home and I like them in this spot especially coming off the bye.

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NFL Week 12 Line Movement: Los Angeles Rams at Kansas City Chiefs

This game has one of the biggest line moves of the season with an 8.5 swing from the opening number. In the summer, this game was posted as Chiefs -2.5 at home as the Rams were still expected to be one of the best teams in the NFC. But a widespread rash of injuries to the Rams offensive line, Matthew Stafford, and now Cooper Kupp, has this number at Chiefs -11.0. 

Even though the Chiefs have not been great against the spread, especially as larger favorites, this number could continue to climb and hit -12.0 or -13.0 because of the status on Matthew Stafford in the concussion protocol. The Rams defense can keep this game close and slow it down to where they get the cover. The Chiefs could be in for a big letdown spot coming off the huge road win against division rival Los Angeles. 

NFL Week 12 Line Movement: New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers have their game against the Arizona Cardinals on Monday night football, so much like last weeks game the line could shift depending on the outcome. The Niners are all the way up to -8.5 favorites against the Cardinals in Mexico City, and they are currently -8.5 favorites against the Saints in this game after opening -4.0 in the summer. I think most of this line move is against the Saints who are 4-7, but have strong metrics (DVOA). 

If the 49ers lose outright, I can see the number going back down to -7, but if they win big it could end up at -10. If the 49ers end up winning by 7-10 points then I think it stays at -8.5 for most of the week leading up to kickoff. 

NFL Week 12 Line Movement: Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles

The game opened at pick'em back in the summer, and has moved to Eagles -6.5. The Packers come in off a Thursday night loss at home to the Titans 27-17, while Eagles barely survived on the road against the Colts 17-16. The recent win of the Packers over the Cowboys will make it so the Eagles do not overlook this game. What could play into the Packers hands is the slower pace and lower scoring that the Eagles have had over the last few games and allow them to hang around and get the cover at +6.5. I am very curious to see if this number ends up moving to -7 Eagles and comes down slightly to a -5 or -6 on the Packers. 

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RotoWire has everything from the latest NFL odds to weekly NFL picks along with NFL futures and NFL player futures from the best NFL betting sites to help you maximize your NFL betting experience.

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Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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