This article is part of our NFL DFS Pick 'Em series.
Underdog NFL DFS Week 4 Picks
We're closing in on the main slate of games in Week 4 and we're back with our weekly Underdog picks. It's an interesting time of the season, as we can start to feel more confident in rate stats. However, the props have also become sharper, making it a bit more difficult to identify edges. As always, we have a few tools to highlight before jumping in with the picks. The first is the Defense vs. Position page, which gives insight not only into the average stats and fantasy points allowed by each defensive unit but also cleanly breaks down the box score from each week. The latter feature of that page is particularly important while we're still relatively early on in the season because numbers can be skewed by one outlier with only three data points.
Next is the Pace and Pass Rate Expectation Page, which helps project volume and will be referenced throughout this article. The final tool is our props page, which helps identify the best overs and unders (across all sports) based on past results, RotoWire projections and props on Underdog relative to those found on various sportsbooks.
The final item before we jump into the picks is a reminder about the deposit bonus available on Underdog Fantasy with the promo code ROTONFL.
Higher Selections
Kirk Cousins 
vs. New Orleans – over 215.5 passing yards
A lot has been made of the New Orleans' offense to begin the season, but their secondary has quietly gotten gashed by Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts in consecutive weeks (293 and 311 passing yards allowed, respectively). As for Cousins himself, the start to his tenure in Atlanta has admittedly been bumpy, but he's still easily cleared this mark in each of his last two weeks. The one danger is that the Falcons have looked to establish their offense on the ground through Bijan Robinson, so if they jump out to an early lead volume could be an issue. This line looks mispriced enough to still make the pick even with that risk factor.
For those who have the same confidence in Cousins, it's also worth correlating picks, and that leads us to Darnell Mooney (over 39.5 receiving yards). Surprisingly, he leads the Falcons in routes run, yards per route run and air yards.
Brian Thomas 
at Houston – over 44.5 receiving yards
Malik Nabers has rightfully grabbed a lot of headlines in New York for immediately meeting expectations, but Thomas has shown signs of taking over as the lead Jacksonville pass catcher. He already leads the team in targets per route run and is comparable in the volume stats relative to Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis. The primary concern with Thomas hitting this mark isn't about his individual talent, but rather the incompetence of the Jacksonville offense as a whole.
Diontae Johnson 
vs. Cincinnati - over five receptions
Johnson looks likely to play, but the first step in this selection is making sure that he does suit up. The logic for this pick spans a few months to training camp/preseason comments made by coach Dave Canales when he declared that the offense would run through Johnson. Fast forward to Week 3 of the regular season and we saw what Canales had in mind when there was competent quarterback play for the Panthers and Johnson recorded eight receptions on 14 targets. The Bengals secondary should be motivated after getting embarrassed by the Commanders, so that's why I'd opt for receptions as opposed to a yardage total.
Kyler Murray 
vs. Washington – over 34.5 rushing yards
Murray has been inconsistent as a passer, but he has repeatedly shown the desire and ability to move the ball on the ground. Until he stops running, this is a number I'm willing to take and Washington isn't an imposing offense by any measure. Some picks require a thorough explanation, but this one is pretty straightforward.
Jahmyr Gibbs 
vs. Seattle – over 49.5 rushing yards
It's hard to get a true gauge of how good the Seattle run defense is because they've played poor offenses in all three games. They're dealing with injuries of their own heading into Week 4, as nearly their entire starting front seven is either out or questionable heading into this matchup. Even if the matchup were neutral or worse, I'd still be inclined to take the overdue to how we've seen Gibbs utilized. Despite the public perception that he accrues a lot of his value as a pass catcher, he's had a total of 40 rushing attempts and 11 receptions across three games. He's topped 80 rushing yards in two of three contests.
Lower Selections
Sam Darnold 
at Green Bay – under 31.5 passing attempts
The Vikings offense and specifically the play of Darnold has been another hot topic around the league. This pick has little to do with efficiency but more to do with what we can expect from the Packers, who have dominated time of possession and limited both the Titans and Colts to only 53 offensive plays in the last two weeks. Meanwhile, the Vikings have passed at only a 52.3 percent clip through three weeks (which does still check in above expectation) and Darnold has yet to surpass 28 pass attempts in a game. The game total is relatively high (43.5 or 44 at most sportsbooks), a suggestion that we could see a decent amount of offense, but that's the only indication we have against the under.
Justin Fields 
at Indianapolis – under 26.5 passing attempts
Anthony Richardson
vs. Pittsburgh – under 15.5 pass completions
We touched on correlation once before in this article, but the Steelers-Colts game offers a number of opportunities to correlate picks based on projected game script. In the simplest terms, neither of these teams wants to put their quarterback in the position to win the game with their arms, as the Colts rank as the fifth-lowest pass rate over expectation and the Steelers the second-lowest.
As for Fields, he has hit the over on this mark only once this season. Coach Mike Tomlin telegraphed Fields' increased volume to some degree by citing the difference in a home versus road game (Week 3 was Pittsburgh's home opener) and opponent. Agree or disagree with Tomlin's approach, but the Steelers head back on the road and likely believe they can win through the run game and more specifically their defense.
The bet on Richardson is a combination of what the Colts want to do on offense and his own profile. We've already covered the Colts' philosophy, but Richardson simply hasn't been accurate early on this season. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, he has an expected completion percentage of 60.6 percent, 11.3 percent higher than his actual 49.3 completion percentage. That 11.3 percentage point difference in completion rate versus expected is the second-worst in the league (behind Jordan Love, who has played only one game).
Miles Sanders vs. Cincinnati – under 36.5 rushing and receiving yards
Chuba Hubbard has a hold on this backfield until Jonathon Brooks (knee) is ready to return, while Sanders has played as the clear backup. Put another way, Sanders has a total of 77 yards from scrimmage in three games. Other than just the simple math that he's averaged only 25.7 yards per game and has yet to hit the over on this prop, it's also notable that 32 of those yards have come in the fourth quarter. The Panthers have yet to play a close game this season, meaning that around 40 percent of Sanders' total yardage has come in garbage time.
