This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Saturday Night Football, Week 17
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Week 17 brings an NFC matchup between two playoff teams, the Detroit Lions (11-4) and the Dallas Cowboys (10-5). Let's dig into the betting market and discuss three wagers that could prove to be profitable.
Lions vs. Cowboys Betting Odds for Week 17 Saturday Night Football
Lions: Spread (+5.5) -108, Moneyline +200; Projected Score 23.3 points
Cowboys: Spread (-5.5) -112, Moneyline -245; Projected Score 28.8 points
Game Total: 52.0 points
The Cowboys originally opened -2.5 home favorites and the line reopened at -5.5; bouncing back and forth from 5.5 to 6.5. The Cowboys have a slightly better power rating than the Lions and the home field does come into play on both sides. The Lions have notoriously struggled on the road, but this is a favorable site being indoors.
The total opened 50.5, with a move to 51.5, and reopen at 53.5 before dipping to 52.5. Given the history of both offenses, the total feels a little low. But high-total games (51 or higher) have been going UNDER at a very high clip this season which could be a part of the number being locked in.
Totaling bets thus far, 68 percent of the money is on the Cowboys, but 59 percent of the bets are on the Lions. There is 61 percent of the money on the Cowboys' moneyline, which is 83 percent of the bets. There is 72 percent of the money and 56 percent of the bets on the OVER.
Key injury situations to watch
Lions:CB Cameron Sutton (Q)
S C.J. Gardner-Johnson, CB Emmanuel Moseley, LB James Houston, DT Alim McNeill (O)
Cowboys: Tyron Smith, Zack Martin, DeMarcus Lawrence, Stephon Gilmore, Brandin Cooks have all been held out or limited in practice this week. Mostly these are veteran "rest" days, but keep an eye on them because of their importance to the Cowboys.
OUT - CB Trevon Diggs, LB Leighton Vander Esch, DT Johnathan Hankins, RB Rico Dowdle
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Lions vs. Cowboys Betting Picks This Week
Lions vs. Cowboys Best Bet: Cowboys OVER 29.5 (DraftKings -110) for 2 units ; ALTERNATE BET Cowboys OVER 37.5 (DraftKings +350) for 0.5 unit
The Cowboys are 7-0 to the OVER on their team totals at home and get a juicy matchup against the Lions. This is one of my best bets of the season because of their dominance at home. The Lions have gone OVER in six out of their last seven and four out of their last five on the road.
The alternate total is also in play because the Cowboys could go nuclear and hit over 37 points, which is the cap on DraftKings. I would sprinkle on the OVER 37.5 also at +350 as they have hit that in seven out of their last 10.
Lions vs. Cowboys Best Bet: Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 48.5 rushing yards (DraftKings -110) for 1 unit
Because I am so strong on the Cowboys team total OVER, it makes sense to find some correlation plays that should also go OVER. Gibbs has really shown lately what most fantasy analysts thought he could be. He has gone OVER 48.5 rushing yards in eight out of his last nine games. As long as this game does not get out of reach in the first half, Gibbs should get plenty of opportunities to continue his hot streak.
Lions vs. Cowboys Best Bet: Tony Pollard UNDER 57.5 rushing yards (DraftKings -110) for 1 unit
Pollard has averaged 59 rushing yards per game and faces the No. 1 defense against opposing running backs. If you take out the game against the Cardinals, who rank 32nd against opposing running backs, his per game average drops to 54. His top six rushing games have come against teams that rank at least 24th or lower against opposing running backs.
Lions vs. Cowboys Prediction
Lions - #7 overall DVOA, #5 DVOA offense, #14 DVOA defense
Cowboys - #6 overall DVOA, #9 DVOA offense, #6 DVOA defense
The Cowboys are a juggernaut at home winning 10 in a row straight up (17-3 last 20) and 8-2 against the spread. They are also 8-2 to the OVER in their last 10 at home. This one should have a lot of fireworks, but I am cautious that Dallas pulls away and its more of a 40-24 type game. The Lions have allowed 31.5 points per game over their last five road games.
Cowboys 34, Lions 30
