Streaming Defenses: Picking a Week 10 Defense

This article is part of our Streaming Defenses series.

Cowboys - As bad as the Cowboys were offensively last week against the Cardinals, this week they should get QB Tony Romo back, but even better than that, they get to face the lowly Jags in London. The Jags are still giving up the most fantasy points to opposing defenses, largely because rookie QB Blake Bortles cannot stop turning the ball over. He leads the NFL in interceptions and his 6.77 YPA ranks 29th in the league, two stats that should be music to owners' ears. His WR corp is fully healthy, though who will step up each week remains a mystery. Last week against the Bengals it was Allen Hurns, who caught seven passes for 112 yards and two TDs. The week before that it was Allen Robinson with five catches for 82 yards with a TD. Who steps up this week matters little though, as long it's Bortles throwing the ball, as he's just as likely to throw a TD to his team as he is to the Cowboys. The Dallas pass defense is below average, giving up 7.3 YPA, which ranks 25th. I would be more concerned for how they'd fair here, but their offense is fifth in average time of possession, thus limiting the time the opposing offense has the ball and limiting the possessions to score on them. On the ground, RB Denard Robinson seems to be hitting his stride, as he's averaged over 100 yards rushing in the last three games. Over that same time span, the Cowboys have allowed 3.8 YPC, which ranks 13th, which is an improvement over their 4.6 YPC on the season. Overall, I'm not thrilled about taking the Dallas defense in any given week, as they're still giving up 6.0 YPP, which ranks third worst in the league, but if you're going to roll with them, it might as well be against one of the weakest offenses in the league in a neutral venue. Vegas has this over/under set at 44 with the Cowboys favored by 6, which puts this at about a 25-19 game. Facing the Jags in London, the Cowboys defense/special teams has an ownership of 21.2 percent at ESPN and 26 percent at Yahoo.

Steelers - QB Michael Vick completed 21-of-28 passes last week against KC for 196 yards with one TD and three sacks. He also had his foot stepped on, an injury that is still causing him pain and will likely leave him limited in practice this week. Still, he showed in that game that he can be a distinct upgrade over Geno Smith, as he didn't turn the ball over once. The Steelers are dealing with their own set of injuries, as neither SS Troy Polamalu (knee), nor ILB Ryan Shazier (ankle) will play this week. The Steelers defense in general is one to be weary of, as they rank tied for the 23rd most YPP given up this season and that with these injuries to deal with, they're an even shakier bet. Still, we're talking about the Jets here, who average 4.7 YPP, which is dead last in the league. Their run game is pretty good though, averaging 4.7 YPC, which ranks fifth. The problem is their passing game, as they average 5.1 YPA, which is last in the league. Again, that was mostly with Smith at QB though. We're sure to see WRs Percy Harvin and Eric Decker targeted heavily, but who outside of them scares anyone? Last week those two caught 20 of the 24 completed passes the team had against KC. If the Steelers can slow them down or even contain one of the two, they should have a pretty decent show at stopping the Jets passing game. Moreover, if the Steelers own passing game is as lethal as it has been the last two weeks, we're likely to see them get out to a big lead and the Jets have to air it out to keep up, which will likely lead to more opportunities for sacks and interceptions. Hopefully this is the case, as the Steelers secondary can be leaky and will likely be even more so with Polamalu out. Vegas has this over/under set at 45.5 with the Steelers favored by 4.5, which puts this at about a 25-21 game. Facing the Jets on the road, the Steelers defense/special teams has an ownership of 20.9 percent at ESPN and 25 percent at Yahoo.

Packers - Before the bye week, the Bears had lost four out of five and looked to be a team desperately in need of some time off to regather themselves. A week later, coach Marc Trestman has been a topic of debate, as the team seems at a crossroads. Considering how banged up their defense is, they'll need a fair bit of luck to help them slow down QB Aaron Rodgers this week. And considering how high this over/under is, maybe that's the best defense for the Packers this week, their offense. QB Jay Cutler is averaging 7.14 YPA, which ranks 19th in the league. Considering his weapons, you'd think his numbers would be better than that, but the offensive line has suffered injuries and there's been a lack of continuity as a result. Still, RB Matt Forte, should be averaging more than 4.3 YPC and he should have more than three rushing TDs on the season. He has more than made up for it in the passing game, catching 58 passes this season for over 61 YPG. The other weapons in the passing game like WRs Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall should be producing more as well. It all falls back on Cutler though, who has a big name, but produces mediocre results. The Packers average 6.6 YPA, which ranks ninth in the league, so don't expect them to help Cutler out much. It is much, much easier to run against them, as they have the worst run defense in the league, giving up 4.8 YPC. If the Bears choose to exploit this weakness, much as the Saints did before the bye, then this one could get ugly. Still, the Packers have had the bye as well to get their house in order and I would expect their run defense to show some improvement. All this said, given the high over/under this game has, I don't see much upside in picking the Packers. Vegas has this over/under set at 53.5 with the Packers favored by 7, which puts this at about a 30-23 game. Facing the Bears at home, the Packers defense/special teams has an ownership of 14.4 percent at ESPN and 20 percent at Yahoo.

Jaguars - QB Tony Romo missed last week's game with an injured back, but that likely won't stop him from playing this week, as he's already made the trip to London and is poised to start for the Cowboys. It's a shame for the Jags, as facing Brandon Weeden would've been a real gift. Over the last three weeks (CLE, MIA, @CIN) the Jags defense has given up 6.0 YPA, which ranks fifth and is a vast improvement over their 7.2 YPA on the season. Romo's 8.26 YPA is fourth best in the league and a testament to how well the Cowboys run game has been this season, as defenses have had to bring more defenders into the box to stop RB DeMarco Murray and WRs Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams have been right there, ready to make them pay. TE Jason Witten's production has taken a nose dive this season, with the offense not needing to throw the ball as often and I doubt he's a factor in this game. The biggest concern is Murray, who has been among the best RBs in the league this season, averaging 5.0 YPC. It's worth noting that starting LT Ron Leary and RT Doug Free both missed this past week's game due to injury and Free is likely to miss this weeks' game as well. If Leary can't go either, it's a small reason for optimism, as the Jags are giving up 4.2 YPC, which ranks 16th in the league. I really don't know how the Jags will stop Dez Bryant though, as he's possibly the best WR in the league and eager to take over this game. The best case scenario I see for this game is that the Cowboys underrate the Jags and somehow find themselves in a grind it out game midway through the third quarter, which is right where the Jags want to be, hanging around late. Vegas has this over/under set at 44 with the Cowboys favored by 6, which puts this at about a 25-19 game. Facing the Cowboys in London, the Jags defense/special teams has an ownership of 0.8 percent at ESPN and 2 percent at Yahoo.

Rams - The Rams pass rush has sprung to life these last three weeks, averaging 4.3 sacks per game and a whopping eight last week against the 49ers. If they can bring that same level of pressure on QB Carson Palmer, they should be a decent bet to help owners this week. I'm still in awe of what he's been able to do this season, when healthy, as he has 11 TDs to just two interceptions and a top 10 passer rating (99.3). He's 16th in YPA (7.37), which speaks more to his true talent level, but still the lack of turnovers have been impressive to me and he has only taken six sacks in five games. The Rams have a below average pass defense on the season, but again, they've played much better in the last three games, giving up just 7.0 YPA, which ranks tied for 17th, much better than their 7.5 YPA on the season, which ranks 27th. The Cardinals run game is much less of a concern, as they're averaging just 3.4 YPC on the season, which ranks third to last in the league and 3.3 YPC in the last three weeks. The Rams run defense hasn't been much better though, giving up 4.6 YPC on the season, which ranks 26th, and 4.7 YPC in the last three weeks. RB Andre Ellington is clearly the lead back, but that hasn't really been a great thing on the ground with 3.8 YPC this season. He's been helpful in the passing game, but the fact remains, the Cardinals struggle to run the ball. I'm much more worried about the Cardinals WR corps of Michael Floyd, Larry Fitzgerald, and John Brown, each of which present a different challenge. Floyd in particular has been something of a mystery with three games this season with less than 20 yards and in his last four games a combined 11 catches for 130 yards. Still, he is a big concern for the Rams secondary. I could see this game getting away from the Rams a little, but the way they've played as of late with a win over Seattle and San Francisco, both divisional games, show me they're starting to come around. A divisional game here, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Rams hang around late, if their pass rush continues it's resurgence. Vegas has this over/under set at 43 with the Cardinals favored by 7, which puts this at about a 25-18 game. Facing the Cardinals on the road, the Rams defense/special teams has an ownership of 13.8 percent at ESPN and 35 percent at Yahoo.

Here are my rankings for this week, the next four weeks and the remainder of the season:

Finally, heres how the picks from the previous week faired:

Vikings (vs Redskins) - 26 points allowed, 5 sacks, 1 interception

Ravens (at Steelers) - 43 points allowed, 3 sacks, 1 fumble recovery, 1 TD

Cowboys (vs Cardinals) - 28 points allowed, 2 sacks, 1 interception, 1 TD

Redskins (at Vikings) - 29 points allowed, 2 sacks

Jaguars (at Bengals) - 31 points allowed, 2 sacks, 2 interceptions