Streaming Defenses: Picking a Week 11 Defense

This article is part of our Streaming Defenses series.

Browns - Ryan Mallet, are you ready? He has only thrown four passes in his three plus seasons, but this week he'll be making his first NFL start and on the road no less. Tough to fault the Texans for making the change, considering Ryan Fitzpatrick had an 11:8 TD:INT ratio this season. Mallet will be facing a stiff test, as the Browns rank tied for fifth in YPA (6.2) on the season and second in the last three weeks (5.1). Getting WR Andre Johnson incorporated back into the offense will likely be a top priority of Mallet's, along with continuing to feed DeAndre Hopkins. The bye week likely helped Mallet in his preparation for this game, as did his prior knowledge of coach Bill O'Brien's offense from their New England days, but the Browns also had a few extra days off, after they embarrassed the Bengals and made Andy Dalton look like he didn't even belong in the NFL. The Texans rank second to last in pass play percentage, as they rely heavily on their ground game and for good reason, as RB Arian Foster has been among the best in the league again this season. This week however, he's dealing with a groin injury that has him day-to-day. He plans to play in this game, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he was a scratch before game-time or had to leave this game early because of his groin. The Browns are second to last against the run, giving up 4.7 YPC, though that figure has improved the last three weeks to 3.9 YPC. Still, Foster being at less than his best can only help the Browns. This game has the lowest under/over of the week, which is another reason to like this matchup. Vegas has this over/under set at 41.5 with the Browns favored by 3, which puts this at about a 22-19 game. Facing the Texans at home, the Browns defense/special teams has an ownership of 32.0 percent at ESPN and 30 percent at Yahoo.

Packers - Tough to get excited about this matchup, considering an over/under of 54.5 points, but consider a few things… They Packers are ranked ninth in YPA (6.5) this season and have the fourth most interceptions per game (1.3). This week they'll face Mark Sanchez, who torched the Panthers on MNF, but a week ago threw two touchdowns and two interceptions against the Texans on the road. While with the Jets his numbers were never praise worthy and he was largely viewed as a game manager. His best passer rating while there was 78.2, good for 23rd in 2011, which is not a surprise, as he had an almost 1:1 TD:INT ratio, while there. I'm willing to write some of that off to poor coaching and play-calling, but those bad habits don't simply ago away and neither does his 55.2 percent career completion percentage, which is among the lowest in the league since he entered in 2009. The Eagles offense with Nick Foles was no great juggernaut, as he had a 13:10 TD:INT ratio this season and completion percentage below 60 percent. The bigger matchup in this game is the Packers run defense, which ranks tied for fourth to last in YPC (4.6), and will be facing the Eagles run game that averages 4.0 YPC, which ranks 20th in the league. If the Eagles can establish the run in this game, they should fair well, though we'll see how that goes, considering RB LeSean McCoy is averaging 3.7 YPC and Darren Sproles' role in the offense is constantly changing. I think this over/under in general is way too high and you're dealing with two top-10 defenses, not two top-10 offenses here. Each team will be taking their shots down the field and WR Jeremy Maclin will very likely put up good numbers, but I think it's doubtful we see Jordan Matthews have another career game this week, especially on the road. I don't think Sanchez is a big downgrade from Foles, but then again I never thought Foles was anything special either. Vegas has this over/under set at 54.5 with the Packers favored by 6, which puts this at about a 30-24 game. Facing the Eagles at home, the Packers defense/special teams has an ownership of 28.8 percent at ESPN and 32 percent at Yahoo.

Vikings - Coming off a bye-week, the Vikings should be ready to go on the road and take advantage of Jay Cutler and an offense totally off the rails. Over the last six weeks the Bears have scored 17, 24, 27, 14, 23, and 14 points and unsurprisingly they only won one of those games and that was against the defensively challenged Falcons. The Vikings to their credit rank 13th in YPA (6.7) and are third in sacks per game (3.3). DE Everson Griffen has eight sacks, while rookie LB Anthony Barr is ranked the fourth best 3-4 OLB this season. Those two should have quite a bit of fun getting after Cutler, who ranks 17th in YPA (7.17), is tied for seventh in sacks taken with 23, and is tied for the second most interceptions thrown this season with 10. In three of his last four games he's thrown one TD or less and according to Pro Football Focus, he's the 30th best QB this season. My only fear in this matchup for the Vikings is that Cutler has nowhere to go but up, as he can't stink any worse than what we've seen. He's got capable weapons in WRs Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery, along with TE Martellus Bennett and RB Matt Forte, but somehow when they come together this season things don't seem to work out. The Vikings are tied for 15th against the run, giving up 4.2 YPC, which is exactly what Forte averages in terms of YPC this season, though he has no runs over 20 yards or more and only three rushing TDs. I'm not sure if Marc Trestman is just in over his head this season or what, but this offense is like watching Too Many Cooks for four quarters. I expect for them to come out ready to get that loss against the Packers behind them, but then again, I expected them to come out ready to play last week after their bye. If the Vikings play like they did before the bye, when they were giving up the eighth fewest YPP (5.3), they should be keep this game close. Vegas has this over/under set at 46.5 with the Bears favored by 3, which puts this at about a 25-22 game. Facing the Bears on the road, the Vikings defense/special teams has an ownership of 19.3 percent at ESPN and 22 percent at Yahoo.

Redskins - Coming off the bye-week, the Redskins figure to be ready to take on the lowly Bucs at home. QB Josh McCown, who is the starter once again, is now up to a 4:6 TD:INT ratio with 6.5 YPA and 71.2 QB rating. Against the Falcons last week he threw for over 300 yards, but it took him 43 pass attempts. WR Mike Evans seems to be doing just fine in this offense, as he has 14 catches for 249 yards and three TDs in his last two games and pretty good numbers on the season too. Outside of him though, I'm not sure there's a single offensive weapon on this team worth worrying about. WR Vincent Jackson is seeing double-digit targets on a weekly basis, but yet only has 57.6 YPG to show for it. Some of that can be blamed on poor QB play from McCown and Glennon before that, but in his 10th season it's not a surprise that he's averaging his worst YPC (13.0) of his career. The Redskins rank 13th in YPA (6.7) on the season and eighth in the last three weeks (6.2). I'm not particularly worried that the Bucs will all of a sudden turn things around in this game because they have no run game. RB Bobby Rainey has been their best back this season and yet only had 14 yards on six carries last week against the defense allergic Falcons. On the season he's averaging 4.5 YPC, but much of that was the 22 carry game he had for 144 yards against the Rams. If you take that one game out, he's averaging 3.8 YPC this season, which is not helpful to the Bucs or his fantasy owners. Former starter Doug Martin is still battling an ankle injury and is unlikely to play in this game, which is unfortunate, as he would've been a lock to drag this offense down, when he touched the ball. The only real hope this run game has is Charles Sims, who we finally got to see last week against the Falcons and had eight carries for 23 yards and two catches for 17 yards. If the Bucs want to win another game this season, they'd be wise to see what he can offer, as none of the other backs on this team have shown much. The Redskins rank 14th against the run, giving up 4.1 YPC, so they shouldn't be exposed in this game, especially coming off the bye with time to rest up. It's hard for me to see the Bucs offense being productive this week, when they don't have a steady QB, their run game is a mess, and their best player is a rookie WR, and the opposing defense is coming off a bye, but this is the NFL and weird things happen. Vegas has this over/under set at 45.5 with the Redskins favored by 7, which puts this at about a 26-19 game. Facing the Bucs at home, the Redskins defense/special teams has an ownership of 31.7 percent at ESPN and 7 percent at Yahoo.

Bears - The Bears offense can't be this bad, can it? In their last four games they've score two first-half touchdowns, which is leaving their defense in not only the untenable position of trying to save the day, but also an untenable position on the field, as they're constantly being left with short fields, after the offense went three-and-out or worse, turned the ball over. If they can just generate a little positive first half momentum against the Vikings this week, their defense might be passable for fantasy owners. The Vikings offense certainly won't be scaring anyone, as QB Teddy Bridgewater has a 3:5 TD:INT ratio, a 60.4 percent completion percentage, which ranks 26th, and already 18 sacks taken in just six games. On the season the Vikings rank tied for third to last in sacks given up per game (3.3), which should only help the Bears. WRs Greg Jennings and Cordarrelle Patterson shouldn't scare anyone either, as this offense has generated the fourth fewest passing yards per game (197.1). On the ground, RB Jerick McKinnon has been the answer, averaging 5.0 YPC, but he doesn't have a rushing TD on the season and hasn't been a factor in the passing game either. Still, he's a dynamic rookie and could give the Bears problems, though they do rank 15th against the run, giving up 4.2 YPC. Football Outsiders has the Vikings offense ranked 29th in the league and that's understandable given the lack of talent and experience in the passing game. As long as the Bears don't play like they did last week against the Packers, they should stay in this game, which is at home, only their fourth this season. Vegas has this over/under set at 46.5 with the Bears favored by 3, which puts this at about a 25-22 game. Facing the Vikings at home, the Bears defense/special teams has an ownership of 10.1 percent at ESPN and 39 percent at Yahoo.

Here are my rankings for this week, the next four weeks and the remainder of the season:

Finally, heres how the picks from the previous week faired:

Cowboys (vs Jaguars) - 15 points allowed, 4 sacks, 1 interception, 2 fumble recoveries

Steelers (at Jets) - 20 points allowed, 4 sacks

Packers (vs Bears) - 14 points allowed, 4 sacks, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 1 TD

Jaguars (vs Cowboys) - 31 points allowed, 1 sack, 1 safety, 1 fumble recovery

Rams (at Cardinals) - 19 points allowed, 3 sacks, 1 interception