Streaming Defenses: Picking a Week 7 Defense

This article is part of our Streaming Defenses series.

Dolphins - Having played four of their last five games on the road, the Bears are likely happy to once again be playing a game at home. They're 0-2 at home, however, with a three point loss in overtime to the Bills in Week 1 and a 21 point loss to the Packers in Week 4. The Bears' throw the ball 62.5 percent of the time, seventh most in the league, which should play into the Dolphins hands, as they're allowing the fewest yards per pass attempt (5.7). The Bears have done a pretty good job protecting QB Jay Cutler this season, so don't expect many sacks from the Dolphins. Cutler has however, thrown four picks in his two home games this season. His weapons include WRs Brandon Marshall, who appears to be healthy, and Alshon Jeffery, along with TE Martellus Bennett, all of whom present problems for opposing defenses. Again, this is a stout Dolphins secondary though. On the ground, they've allowed 3.8 yards per carry, something that should slow down RB Matt Forte, who has no runs over 20 yards this season and up until last week, had no rushing touchdowns on the season. In terms of raw rushing yards, he's only had one game with over 82 yards rushing. But whatever he lacks on the ground, he makes up for in the air, as he's been particularly potent in the passing game the last two weeks, carving up the Panthers and Falcons for over 180 yards combined in those two games. Again though, those are two of the worst defenses in the league this season, while the Dolphins most certainly are not, as they've allowed the second fewest yards per play this season (4.7). I can certainly see the Bears putting up some serious points in this game, but rolling with the Dolphins here is a play to back their track record so far this season. If they play just as they did against the Packers at home last week, I give the Dolphins a fair shot at keeping this score down and turning Cutler over a few times. One last thing, these two teams are awful in the special teams game and I expect to see at least one weird play, possibly a return touchdown that could sway this game; I just hope it's for the Dolphins and not the Bears. Vegas has this over/under set at 49 with the Bears favored by three, which puts this at about a 26-23 game. Facing the Bears on the road, the Dolphins defense/special teams have an ownership of 13.4 percent at ESPN and 16 percent at Yahoo.

Cowboys - I'm hesitant to buy into the Cowboys defense, but they're legitimately playing better than last season and exceeding my preseason expectations. Still, they're second to last in yards per play allowed (6.1) and are second to last in yards allowed per carry (5.1), but I think that's just it, they're bad against the run, which, if you're going to be bad at stopping the pass or the run, always pick the run. In today's NFL you live and die by the pass and in that phase of their defense, Dallas is average, ranking 19th in YPA (7.0). I'm mostly concerned here because the Cowboys are coming off their best game of the season, while the Giants are coming off their worst game of the season. However, the Giants lost WR Victor Cruz for the season last week, TE Larry Donnell has gone back to wherever it is he came in his last two games (one catch in his last two games), and RB Rashad Jennings is unlikely to suit up for this game, as he's still nursing a sprained MCL. You remove them from the equation and you're left with one dependable weapon in WR Rueben Randle. I expect rookie RB Andre Williams to be leaned on heavily in this game, as the run game is where the Cowboys struggle, but this is actually what the Cowboys should want to have happen, as it limits the big play ability of the Giants offense. With four catches on the season, it's pretty clear the Giants don't trust Williams in the passing game, leaving that part of the game to Peyton Hillis. Rookie WR Odell Beckham has looked explosive in the two games he's played, but he's still a rookie and learning how to play in the NFL. QB Eli Manning has shown improved play this season, but he took six sacks against the Eagles last week, which leads me to believe the offensive line is still not playing well as a unit. One reason to back the Cowboys defense here is the play of their offensive line, which is dominating games. The Cowboys are third in the average time of possession per game (33:51), which means their defense is getting to rest the third most in the league. If the Giants realize the Cowboys can't stop the run and the Cowboys lean on their run game as well, this is going to be a low scoring game, which is what I'm expecting. Vegas has this over/under set at 48 with the Cowboys favored by six, which puts this at about a 27-21 game. Facing the Giants at home, the Cowboys defense/special teams have an ownership of 4.6 percent at ESPN and nine percent at Yahoo.

Packers - The Panthers are a mystery team to me this season. Their defense that was so dominant a season ago has completely collapsed on them and I'm still looking to figure out why. Looking at their schedule, they played the lowly Bucs tight Week 1, beat the Lions soundly in Week 2, scored a combined 29 points against the Steelers and Ravens, only to turn around and score a combined 68 points against the Bears and Bengals. It might be that they just play to the level of their competition. If you know, please clue me in, as I'm still surprised they were able to generate over 430 yards of offense against the Bengals on the road last week, when they got nothing from their running backs. QB Cam Newton accounted for nearly 91 percent of their offense in that game, which tells you all you need to know about him and their offense; stop him and you stop their offense. The Packers are ranked seventh in YPA (6.3), which is a good place to start in stopping Newton. The problem now though is that his ankle looks healthy and he's running more than ever. RB Jonathan Stewart should be back for this game, though I'm not sure how much it matters, as he's not a difference maker. Who is a difference maker though is rookie WR Kelvin Benjamin, who is almost single-handedly carrying the WR corps this season. As for Greg Olsen, the TE is dependable as ever and will need to be a focal point of the Packers secondary, especially considering he leads the team in first downs. The Panthers defense is dead last against the run, allowing 5.5 yards per carry, so expect the Packers to run the ball early and often against them, thus slowing down the game and limiting the Panthers time of possession. I really can't see this game turning into a shootout because I don't see the Panthers having enough fire power to keep up with the Packers, then again I thought that before they played the Bears and Bengals. Vegas has this over/under set at 49 with the Packers favored by seven, which puts this at about a 28-21 game. Facing the Panthers at home, the Packers defense/special teams have an ownership of 13.4 percent at ESPN and 35 percent at Yahoo.

Browns - Which offense gives up more fantasy points to opposing defenses than anyone else in the league? You guessed it, the Jaguars. They're giving up a league leading 4.5 sacks per game, while scoring a league low 1.5 offensive touchdowns per game. QB Blake Bortles has shown some promise this season, and even had his first 300 yards passing game of his career this past week against the Titans, but it's clear, until his offensive line improves, this offense is going to be stuck in reverse. All of the Jags WRs are now healthy, but that still means they're dealing with three rookies, in Allen Robinson, Marqise Lee, and Allen Hurns. Veteran Cecil Shorts hogged the targets last week against the Titans and will be a focal point of Browns defense this week. If they put DB Joe Haden on him, I expect Shorts to have a quiet day, though Haden hasn't been playing at an especially high level this season, as he's been dealing with a nagging hip. The Browns are allowing 7.2 YPA, which ranks 22nd in the league, which is a concern, but again, we're dealing with the Jags here. What they plan to do on the ground is really anyone's guess, as RB Toby Gerhart is dealing with a foot injury, Jordan Todman is ineffective, Denard Robinson is miscast as a RB, and Storm Johnson has yet to get a real chance to prove himself. To put their ground game in perspective, the team's leading rusher is Gerhart with 123 yards… on the season. The Browns are third to last against the run, allowing 5.0 yards per carry, but who on this Jags team is going to exploit that weakness? Certainly not the Jags offensive line. This Browns team is 3-2 with their two loses coming by a combined five points to division foes, leading me to believe this team is a legitimate playoff contender and likely to handle their business in this game. I think they know that if they slip up here, they're likely to be viewed as frauds and they can't do that, not after punking the Steelers last week at home. Vegas has this over/under set at 45 with the Browns favored by 5.5, which puts this at about a 25-20 game. Facing the Jags on the road, the Browns defense/special teams have an ownership of 4.8 percent at ESPN and 20 percent at Yahoo.

Steelers - When in doubt, fade QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. Last week against the Colts he took five sacks and fumbled the ball away on the game ending drive. The Texans know he's a liability and thus limit his exposure, throwing the ball a league low 48.3 percent of the time. Unfortunately, this leaves weapons like WR Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins under utilized, despite their potential game breaking talent. Fortunately, they have RB Arian Foster, who averages 4.8 yards per carry and ranks second in rushing yards per game (102.6) and rushing touchdowns (five). As a Texans fan myself, I view Fitzpatrick as a giant anchor holding the offense back. They don't really have any other options though, which continues to hurt their ability to score points, as JJ Watt can only score so many touchdowns. For the Steelers, they're giving up 5.7 yards per play, which ranks 19th, tied with the Texans actually. They were torched by QB Brian Hoyer last week for 12.8 YPA, but then again he only attempted 17 passes, as the ground game gouged the Steelers. The same thing could happen to them against Foster, if they don't gear up to stop the run. I imagine, after getting whipped 31-10 by the Browns, the Steelers will be looking to prove a point on Monday night. Maybe I'm overly pessimistic about the Texans offense, but this is a team that has lost three of their last four games with a bottom five QB going on the road. If Fitzpatrick has a big game this week, it'll be his first one this season. Vegas has this over/under set at 44.5 with the Steelers favored by 3.5, which puts this at about a 24-21game. Facing the Texans at home, the Steelers defense/special teams have an ownership of 30.8 percent at ESPN and 35 percent at Yahoo.

Here are my rankings for this week, the next four weeks and the remainder of the season:

Finally, heres how the picks from the previous week faired:

Ravens (at Bucs) - 17 points allowed, 5 sacks, 1 interception

Colts (at Texans) - 22 points allowed, 5 sacks, 2 fumble recoveries

Giants (at Eagles) - 27 points allowed, 1 sack, 2 interceptions

Dolphins (vs Packers) - 27 points allowed, 3 sacks, 1 fumble recovery

Packers (at Dolphins) - 24 points allowed, 1 sack, 1 interception