Streaming Defenses: Picking a Week 8 Defense

This article is part of our Streaming Defenses series.

Dolphins - The Dolphins were impressive on defense yet again last week, as they held the Bears to just 4.4 YPP, sacked QB Jay Cutler three times, and got three takeaways, in a convincing road win. This week things get much easier for them, as they take on rookie QB Blake Bortles and the Jags. I'm normally excited to pick on the Jags, but especially so this week, as there should be some let down in their effort, after they won their first game of the season last week against the Browns. Bortles is still very raw and learning on the job, as he has 10 interceptions in only five games. His WRs are just as unrefined, as he's got three rookies with Marqise Lee, Allen Robinson, and Allen Hurns to throw to. Cecil Shorts is the veteran of this bunch and should see the majority of the targets. The Dolphins are the best defense against the pass, allowing just 5.6 YPA, so don't expect the Jags to get much going through the air. As for the ground game, the Jags may have finally found their go to RB, in Denard Robinson, who carved up the Browns last week for 127 rushing yards and a TD. That was the Browns though, who are second to last in run defense, allowing 5.0 YPC. This Dolphins defense allows just 3.8 YPC, which is eighth best in the league. Overall, this should be a rout, as the Dolphins are allowing a league best 4.7 YPP on defense and the Jags are producing a league worst 4.8 YPP on offense. Another factor in the Dolphins favor is that this is a road game, but they won't be traveling far, as the game is in-state. Vegas has this over/under set at 43 with the Dolphins favored by 5.5, which puts this at about a 24-19 game. Facing the Jags on the road, the Dolphins defense/special teams has an ownership of 12.6 percent at ESPN and 23 percent at Yahoo.

Ravens - While Bengals WR A.J. Green (toe) is saying all the right things, his status for this week is still unknown. What is clear is that without him, the Bengals offense lacks a true playmaker in the passing game. Last week against the Colts, they were not only shutout, but held to just 2.5 YPP. They got one first down running the ball and on third downs were 1-for-13. The Colts are a good team, but that's brutal. Meanwhile, while that was going on, the Ravens were picking the Falcons apart, holding them to just 3.9 YPP and in the process sacking QB Matt Ryan five times. Coming off those two opposite end of the spectrum games, I expect the Bengals to play much better and the Ravens to regress back to the mean some, making this game likely to be a close one, especially considering they're division foes. When these two teams played in Week 1, the Ravens were winning 15-16 with about five minutes left in the fourth quarter, until Green caught a 77-yard TD to put the Bengals up for good. Until that long bomb, the Bengals had not scored in the second half. Since that game, the Ravens have only gotten better, winning five of their last six, with their lone loss coming to the Colts by a TD on the road. The Bengals on the other hand, have gone 2-2-1 with their last win coming in Week 3 to the hapless Titans. Stat wise, the Ravens are ranked 13th against the pass, giving up 6.7 YPA, and seventh against the run, giving up 3.7 YPC. QB Andy Dalton has done well to cut down on the interceptions this season, only throwing three in six games, but he's been average without Green to target these last two games. And that's just it, without Green this is a vanilla Bengals offense, but with him they're much tougher to matchup against, as the Ravens saw with his game winning TD in Week 1. Monitor Green's progress this week and don't hesitate to pounce on the Ravens defense, if his status to return does not brighten by week's end. Vegas has this over/under set at 46 with the Bengals favored by 1, which puts this at about a 22-23 game. Facing the Bengals on the road, the Ravens defense/special teams has an ownership of 23.1 percent at ESPN and 47 percent at Yahoo.

Colts - It's tough to say who the Steelers are this season, as they've alternated wins and losses since the start of the season and as such have a 4-3 record. None of those wins have come against teams with winning records and in two of their losses they've been blown out, once by the Browns. Offensively, they're equally as unimpressive as QB Ben Roethlisberger ranks 15th in YPA (7.37). RB Le'Veon Bell is third in the NFL in rushing and yet only has one rushing TD on the season and that came back in Week 1. WR Antonio Brown is playing at an All-Pro level this season, but he's got no supporting cast around him in the WR/TE corps. The second best receiver this season has been Bell, who is second on the team in catches, targets, and yards. And while that's great for Bell and his fantasy owners, it's further proof that when Brown or Bell is shutdown, this offense is not going anywhere. As for the Colts defense, they've been fairly average themselves this season, ranking 15th in YPP (5.5). This past week though, they destroyed the Bengals, shutting them out on the scoreboard and holding them to just 2.5 YPP in the box score with just one rushing first down allowed. DB Vontae Davis is currently the highest rated CB in the league, according to Pro Football Focus, while Mike Adams is the seventh highest rated Safety. If the two continue that type of play in this game, I can see Big Ben throwing at least one pick. The fear here is that this becomes something of a shootout, but for that to happen, the Steelers would need a viable second or even third WR to step up and so far that's yet to occur. Vegas has this over/under set at 49 with the Colts favored by 3, which puts this at about a 26-23 game. Facing the Steelers on the road, the Colts defense/special teams has an ownership of 12 percent at ESPN and 46 percent at Yahoo.

Vikings - Against the Bills this past week, the Vikings showed positive signs of life, sacking QB Kyle Orton six times and getting four takeaways. This week they get the Bucs, who are coming off a bye, a week after getting throttled by the Ravens 48-17. QB Mike Glennon ranks 25th in YPA (6.94) and 33rd in completion percentage (57.0). He's better than incumbent Josh McCown, though not by much. His receivers are plenty talented, especially rookie Mike Evans, who has a TD in each of his last two games. It's the Bucs run game that really brings them down offensively, as the coaching staff, for whatever reason, continues to feed Doug Martin the ball, despite the fact that he's averaging just 2.9 YPC. At some point the coaching staff will bench him, in favor of Bobby Rainey (4.9 YPC), but let's just hope it's not this week against the Vikings. I made this point the last time I wrote about the Bucs, but it's worth repeating, the Bucs don't have an offensive coordinator right now, as Jeff Tedford is on indefinite leave with a heart ailment. In his place QB coach Marcus Arroyo has taken over, though he has no NFL experience and last season was the offensive coordinator for a Southern Miss team that went 1-11. I don't think he or this team knows what they're doing on offense and it's not as if head coach Lovie Smith is going to lend his expertise, as he comes from a defensive background. Going with the Vikings here is about picking on a bad offense more than anything, as the Vikings rank 12th in YPP (5.4) and 12th in YPA (6.7) on defense. DE Everson Griffen is second in the league in sacks with 7.0, showing the team has at least one effective pass rusher. Unfortunately the Vikings offense doesn't help matters, as they're ranked last by Football Outsiders in their efficiency metrics. If they show up for this game and keep their defense off the field, it'll help, though QB Teddy Bridgewater still leave much to be desired. Considering this game has one of the lowest over/under totals of the week, I feel optimistic about the Vikings chances here. Vegas has this over/under set at 42 with the Bucs favored by 3, which puts this at about a 23-20 game. Facing the Bucs on the road, the Vikings defense/special teams has an ownership of 3.5 percent at ESPN and 9 percent at Yahoo.

Packers - Going with the Packers this week is borderline lunacy, as the Saints play much better at home than on the road. This season though, I think they're just an average team overall. Their offense is getting 5.9 YPP at home, which is ranked ninth in the league. For some perspective, last season they were first with 6.6 YPP at home. I'm not even sure how much you can read into those games, as they come from two games, against the Vikings and Bucs, two of the worst teams and defenses in the league. Last week they put 6.1 YPP on the Lions, who are among the best defenses in the league and that was on the road, so they've still got some punch. TE Jimmy Graham suited up last week, but was only targeted twice and didn't catch either of the passes. He's expected to suit up again this week, but will again likely be limited to passing situations and red-zone packages. He should do more than last week, but there are no promises. After him, you're looking at WR corps of Marques Colston, who has two 100-yard games and sandwiched in between are four games with a combined 10 catches; Brandin Cooks, who has yet to go over 77 yards catching and has one TD on the season as a rookie; and Kenny Stills, who had a breakout performance against the Lions with over 100 yards and a TD, but before that had done very little. The running game is a bit of a mess, as Pierre Thomas is set to miss the next 2-3 weeks and Khiry Robinson was unable to practice Wednesday, due to a forearm injury. If neither plays, we're looking at a Mark Ingram and Travaris Cadet backfield. The two could be plenty useful in this game, but it's not the same without the full compliment of backs. Overall Drew Brees is what makes this offense go and he's 17th in YPA (7.29), which is not like him. The Saints defense is a joke right now and is the worst in the league, which actually helps the offensive numbers of Brees and his weapons, as more volume pumps up the attempts and big play potential, as the offense is constantly being asked to bail the team out. It should be interesting to see him go up against the Packers, as they're fourth in the league in YPA (6.2) and have generally shut opposing passing games down, holding them to just 214.9 YPG. It's interesting to me that they aren't giving up more raw passing yards a game, as they've beaten teams by an average of 7.4 points per game, which would lead me to think that there would be plenty of garbage time in some of these blowouts for teams to just throw in desperation against them. Their run defense is below average, giving up 4.6 YPC, but again the Saints are at less than 100 percent health and may be without Robinson too. If Graham does not suit up for this game for some reason or is again a decoy, I can really see the Packers getting to Brees. Still, this is a pretty big over/under for the week, so I can understand any owner who reads all of this and still says, no thanks. Vegas has this over/under set at 56 with the Saints favored by 1.5, which puts this at about a 27-29 game. Facing the Saints on the road, the Packers defense/special teams has an ownership of 13.5 percent at ESPN and 34 percent at Yahoo.

Here are my rankings for this week, the next four weeks and the remainder of the season:

Finally, heres how the picks from the previous week faired:

Dolphins (at Bears) - 14 points allowed, 3 sacks, 1 interception, 2 fumble recoveries

Cowboys (vs Giants) - 21 points allowed, 2 fumble recoveries

Packers (vs Panthers) - 17 points allowed, 3 sacks, 1 interception

Browns (at Jags) - 24 points allowed, 2 sacks, 3 interceptions

Steelers (vs Texans) - 23 points allowed, 1 sack, 1 interception, 2 fumble recoveries