Streaming Defenses: Picking a Week 9 Defense

This article is part of our Streaming Defenses series.

Vikings - Coming off their MNF win over the Cowboys on the road, the Redskins have to be feeling pretty good about themselves. QB Colt McCoy completed 25-of-30 passes for almost 300 yards with only one turnover and rushed for 16 yards and a TD. This week though, McCoy will be back on the bench, as Robert Griffin is back from his ankle injury and will start this game for the Redskins. The last full game that RG3 played, he went 29-of-37 for 267 yards passing with no touchdowns, one fumble, and three sacks against the Texans. He ran for only two yards on three carries and was held in check for the majority of the game. The following game he would injure his ankle against the Jags and remain out, until now. It's tough to say what we should expect out of RG3, but it's fair to be skeptical, considering how poorly he played in 2013, coming off another injury, when he had more turnovers (18) than TDs (16). He has dependable options in the passing game with WRs DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon and TE Jordan Reed. The Vikings defense ranks ninth in YPA (6.6), so this should be a fairly even matchup. The passing game matchup really comes down to how much do you trust RG3? I have to imagine he won't be running much, if at all, as he's still coming off that ankle injury and has had multiple leg injuries in the past. The Vikings are average against the run, but so too are the Redskins. RB Alfred Morris has had one game since Week 1 where he's rushed for more than 4.1 YPC, which is not a good sign. The Vikings are coming off an emotional road overtime win against the Bucs, where they got a strip-fumble return for a TD to end the game from rookie LB Anthony Barr. I would talk about how impressive they were, but they were playing the Bucs, who are one of the worst teams in the league. If QB Teddy Bridgewater can limit the mistakes, I expect the Vikings to be in this one till the end. Vegas has this over/under set at 44.5 with the line set at pick 'em, which puts this at about a 22-22 game. Facing the Redskins at home, the Vikings defense/special teams has an ownership of 9.9 percent at ESPN and 35 percent at Yahoo.

Ravens - Out of the blue, Big Ben threw for over 500 yards with six passing TDs, as the Steelers blitzed the Colts for nearly 50 points on offense in Week 8. Until that game, he was having a good season with only three interceptions, but nothing special to make you think that game was coming and that's just the point, there is no real history in what the Steelers have done this season to make you think another performance like that is coming again, much less repeatable the next week against their biggest rival. Until that game, TE Heath Miller had one game over 51 yards and that was against the lowly Bucs, on whom he caught 10 passes for 85 yards. Until that game, WR Markus Wheaton didn't have a TD this season and even with that game, he only has one game with over 57 yards receiving and that was Week 1. Until that game, Martavis Bryant probably wasn't a name many knew about, as he had only been activated a week prior against the Texans and even then, he only caught two passes, granted one was for a TD. The point here is that that game the Steelers had against the Colts was just one game and things change quickly in the NFL, just ask the Colts, who suffered that embarrassing defensive performance, a week after shutting out the Bengals. For the Ravens, they come off a tough road loss to the division rival Bengals and will be on the road yet again for this one, though it'll be against their biggest rival, the Steelers. The Ravens have been good at stopping the run this season, allowing 3.7 YPC, which ranks seventh in the league. They'll have their hands full with RB Le'Veon Bell, who really shows no signs of slowing down, though he does only have one rushing TD on the season and that was from Week 1. Against the pass, the Ravens are average, giving up 10.7 YPA, which ranks 14th. If you're still concerned about what Big Ben might do to the Ravens, go back to Week 2, when these two teams last faced each other and look at how the Steelers were held to just six points and 5.3 YPP. This game will be on Sunday night, so I expect a little extra juice in this rivalry and a very close game, as you'll see in the line… Vegas has this over/under set at 48 with the Ravens favored by 1, which puts this at about a 24-23 game. Facing the Steelers on the road, the Ravens defense/special teams has an ownership of 22.0 percent at ESPN and 51 percent at Yahoo.

Cowboys - At 6-1, the Cardinals are one of the hottest teams in the league, but it's not their offense that is carrying them, rather it's their defense. Offensively, they're averaging 5.2 YPP, which is ranked 23rd and just so you don't think that doesn't take into account the fact that QB Carson Palmer was out, the offense is generating 5.4 YPP in the last three weeks, which ranks 17th, so only marginally more production as of late. The run game has been especially worrisome, averaging just 3.4 YPC, which is third last in the league. RB Andre Ellington is a productive runner and good pass catcher out of the backfield, but he's only averaging 3.6 YPC and behind him there really isn't much depth, as Stepfan Taylor is out with a calf strain. The Cowboys are vulnerable against the run, giving up 4.8 YPC, which is second worst in the league. I would expect the Cardinals to look to exploit this matchup, but again it's tough to do so, when they themselves aren't even average at running the ball. QB Carson Palmer's 7.38 YPA ranks 16th, though to his credit, he does have eight TD passes to just one interception. Unless he has made some deal with the devil we don't know about, I expect that to ratio to change real quick, as over the last five seasons he has 106 passing TDs to 85 picks. Much has been made through the media about how the Cowboys have improved on defense this season, but that's not really the case, as they allowed 6.1 YPP in 2013 and in 2014, you guessed it, they're still giving up 6.1 YPP. This gets masked by their own offensive line, as they've been able to hold onto the ball for extended drives that forces the other offense into hurry up mode on offense, as they have limited possessions. At some point in the season, the Cowboys are going to get blown out by a team that just runs the ball all over them, but it's doubtful it happen this week against such a below average rushing team like the Cardinals. Vegas has this over/under set at 48 with the Cowboys favored by 4, which puts this at about a 26-22 game. Facing the Cardinals at home, the Cowboys defense/special teams has an ownership of 12.2 percent at ESPN and 25 percent at Yahoo.

Redskins - How much do you trust RG3? A fair chunk of how this game will be decided lies in his hands, as he comes off an ankle injury that has kept him sidelined since the start of Week 2. As mentioned above, the Redskins are coming off a big win against their biggest rival, the Dallas Cowboys, on MNF no less. They were able to sack QB Tony Romo five times for 54 yards and at one point knocked him out of the game, when he injured his back on a sack. They did however get gashed by RB DeMarco Murray, but then again, who hasn't this season? The Vikings don't have a DeMarco Murray, but they have a Jerick McKinnon, who has been very effective over the last two games with 186 yards on 35 combined carries (5.3 YPC). The Redskins have been mediocre at stopping the run this season, allowing 4.2 YPC, which ranks 17th. Their pass defense has been fairly average too, allowing 6.8 YPA, but this week they get the added bonus of facing rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater, who has thrown two touchdowns and five interceptions in the last three weeks. His 6.79 YPA ranks 28th in the league, though it's somewhat understandable, when you realize his best pass catching options are WRs Cordarrelle Patterson, Greg Jennings, and Jarius Wright, who have under-achieved as a group, and that might be putting it lightly. I'd feel much better about the Redskins, if they weren't coming off a short week or a win over their biggest rival in a primetime game, but it's a week full of teams on bye, so you take what you can get. LB Brian Orakpo is out for the season with yet another pectoral injury, but the Redskins pass rush didn't seem to miss him against the Cowboys. Bridgewater hasn't run much in the last three weeks, so perhaps his lack of mobility outside the pocket will help the Redskins contain him. The only fear here is that of a let down, but the Vikings offense is so lacking for weapons and experienced playmakers that it evens things out a bit. Vegas has this over/under set at 44.5 with the line set at pick 'em, which puts this at about a 22-22 game. Facing the Vikings on the road, the Redskins defense/special teams has an ownership of 19.7 percent at ESPN and 14 percent at Yahoo.

Jaguars - Over the last three weeks the Jags have allowed 4.8 YPP, which is third best in the league… Yes, the Jags. Against the Dolphins last week they only gave up one offensive TD, the rest of their scoring came on FGs and pick-sixes from rookie QB Blake Bortles. In fact over the last three weeks they've allowed 0.7 offensive TDs per game, which is tops in the league. On the season, they're an average defense, but even that should be viewed as progress. This week against the Bengals, it's uncertain as to what the task at hand is, as WR A.J. Green is still dealing with a toe injury that has kept him out the last three weeks and RB Giovani Bernard is dealing with a hip injury that could sideline him this week. If neither plays, the Jags are a great defense to steam, however if both play, they're likely a below average or worse option for owners. This past week we saw WR Mohamed Sanu continue to pick up the slack left behind by Green and even if Green plays this week, I have to think Sanu will still be a large part of the passing game. It's Bernard that is potentially the game changer here, as without him, you're looking at a backfield that will lead by rookie Jeremy Hill, who has been averaging 3.9 YPC with particularly poor numbers running the ball these last three weeks. Still, much of how the Jags will fair in this game comes down to the aforementioned Bortles, who simply cannot get out of his own way right now, with 12 interceptions in only six games. Just limiting how many times he's allowed to throw the ball right now would likely help the Jags win more games, though it might not help improve his developmental curve. If he's able to curb his enthusiasm for turning the ball over, the Jags have a real shot at keeping this game in check. The Jags have been a doormat of a defense for a few seasons now, so if you still want to pass on them, I won't blame you. Vegas has this over/under set at 43.5 with the Bengals favored by 11, which puts this at about a 27-16 game. Facing the Bengals on the road, the Jags defense/special teams has an ownership of 0.5 percent at ESPN and 1 percent at Yahoo.

Here are my rankings for this week, the next four weeks and the remainder of the season:

Finally, heres how the picks from the previous week faired:

Dolphins (at Jags) - 13 points allowed, 4 sacks, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 2 touchdowns, 1 blocked kick

Ravens (at Bengals) - 27 points allowed, 2 sacks, 1 interception, 1 fumble recovery

Colts (at Steelers) - 43 points allowed, 2 fumble recoveries, 1 blocked kick

Vikings (at Bucs) - 13 points allowed, 5 sacks, 1 interception, 1 fumble recovery, 1 touchdown

Packers (at Saints) - 44 points allowed, 2 sacks, 1 fumble recovery