This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers Best Bets and Predictions
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The Chiefs (7-2) head west to take on the AFC West rival Chargers (5-4), which Kansas City defeated back in Week 2 at Arrowhead Stadium by a 27-24 score.
Kansas City comes in off a 27-17 home win over the Jaguars in Week 10, while Los Angeles is trying to bounce back from a narrow 22-16 road defeat at the hands of the 49ers.
Kansas City Chiefs 
at Los Angeles Chargers 
for Sunday Night Football Week 11
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Chiefs -240 (FanDuel Sportsbook)/ Chargers +205 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Point spread: Chiefs -5.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)/ Chargers +5.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Totals: Over 51.5 points (FanDuel Sportsbook)/ Under 52 points (DraftKings Sportsbook)
The spread for this game has taken a circuitous route right back to where it opened when the line was first released in the middle of last week. KC was a 5.5-point favorite at the open, then bumped up to all the way to 7 early in the week. It eventually began a descent, however, going all the way down to 5 late in the week before bumping up slightly to 5.5 by Saturday despite the news that Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are expected to return from their respective hamstring and ankle injuries for the Chargers.
The total has gone in the opposite direction. It opened at 50 and remained between that number and 50.5 early in the week before beginning a rise at mid-week that's seen it climb as high as 52 as of Saturday night.
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Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers Betting Picks This Week
The Chiefs have had trouble with the Chargers since Justin Herbert became the starter in 2020. Kansas City is 3-2 against Los Angeles over the last five games of the series, but the Chargers' three losses have come by a combined 12 points. Meanwhile, the Bolts' two victories have been by margins of six and 17 points.
The matchup Sunday night shapes up as very competitive once again, especially because of the expected returns of Allen and Williams. Playing without Allen in Week 2, the Chargers almost knocked off the Chiefs at Arrowhead, with Williams posting an 8-113-1 line on 10 targets in that contest. Having both players plus an improving Joshua Palmer and DeAndre Carter at his disposal gives Herbert an abundance of ammunition against a Kansas City defense allowing 268 passing yards per road game. Another prominent target for Herbert could certainly be Austin Ekeler, considering his pass-catching prowess and the fact no nine-game team has allowed more than the 67 receptions and 473 receiving yards KC has surrendered to running backs.
On the other side, Patrick Mahomes will have to deal with a short-handed crew at receiver, as Mecole Hardman has been put on injured reserve with an abdomen injury and JuJu Smith-Schuster will sit out while in concussion protocol. While the legendary quarterback undoubtedly is capable of navigating personnel changes, it naturally is a lot more challenging against a quality opponent.
The Chargers have been very solid against the pass, giving up just 209.3 passing yards per game, including only 178.3 in the last three contests. L.A. held Mahomes to 235 yards, along with a pair of scoring tosses, in the Week 2 matchup. The Bolts are actually much more susceptible to the run (146.8 RYPG allowed, including 190.3 in the last three), so there could be opportunities for Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire to contribute more than usual with the short-handed pass-catching corps factored in.
Although there is still no shortage of upside on the KC side, the Chargers should especially have a chance to run a balanced attack and keep this game close at minimum, not to mention potentially pull the outright upset.
Chiefs at Chargers Best Bets: Chargers +5.5 (-110 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers Prediction
The combination of the expected returns of Williams and Allen with the absences of Smith-Schuster and Hardman is naturally going to have a tangible net effect on the flow of this game. While Mahomes has more than proven his ability to succeed with a wide variety of targets, the recent history of this matchup and L.A.'s home-field edge could be enough for an upset win in which Herbert maximizes his refortified pass-catching corps.
