This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Picks and Player Props for Super Bowl 57: Eagles vs. Chiefs
Last article: 1-5, -4.72 units
Season: 99-161, -77.50 units
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Philadelphia Eagles -1.5, -110 vs. Kansas City Chiefs (FanDuel)
The Eagles seem well-equipped to handle the Chiefs' #1 ranked passing offense, as they allowed the fewest passing yards per game during the regular season (179.8), and have also allowed the fewest passing yards per game (by a wide margin) during the playoffs. Part of that is due to the 49ers' quarterback issues during the NFC Championship game, but it's clear the Eagles had the best pass defense in the league this year. Meanwhile, the Eagles offense ranked 5th in rushing this year behind their elite offensive line, while the Chiefs defense ranked 25th in rushing yards allowed. The Eagles have been even more effective on the ground during the playoffs (averaging over 200 rushing yards per game), despite facing the 49ers #1 ranked rushing defense in their last game. It seems likely this game will be won in the trenches, with the advantage going to the Eagles.
Will the Opening Kickoff be a Touchback? NO +124 (FanDuel)
This is an interesting prop that I heard about a couple of years ago. Apparently, the ball for the opening kickoff (unlike the rest of the game balls) is NOT broken in, because it is sent to the Hall of Fame afterwards. Former NFL kicker Pat McAfee compared it to kicking a brick. While the price on "No Touchback" has come down after McAfee pointed out this angle, we're still getting plus-money on a prop that has come in 18 of the last 21 years.
Kenneth Gainwell over 19.5 rushing yards, -110 (FanDuel)
I've already mentioned that I expect the Eagles to have success running the ball, and it's notable that Gainwell's usage has spiked dramatically during the playoffs, with him recording double-digit carries in both games, and actually out-carrying starter Miles Sanders in the NFC Championship game (14 to 11). Any kind of similar volume seems likely to have Gainwell covering this total.
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Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown, +100 (FanDuel)
Hurts has scored a rushing touchdown in seven of his last nine games, and it serves to reason that he would want to score one in the Super Bowl if/when the opportunity presents itself. Seems better than an even-money proposition based on his recent success.
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Travis Kelce over 78.5 receiving yards, -110 (FanDuel)
Kelce is far-and-away the Chiefs top receiving target, and they figure to be leaning on him heavily in this game. Note that he recorded an incredible 17 targets vs. Jacksonville in the Divisional Round, and he's had double-digit targets in three of his last six games (with seven or eight targets being his floor). While the Eagles have been good at defending TE's this year, I just think Kelce will be seeing a ton of volume, especially if/when the Chiefs fall behind (which seems somewhat likely to happen).