This article is part of our DFS NFL series.
We get the premiere Thursday Night Football matchup of the season in Week 11, as the Bengals visit the Ravens in a game that will help decide the ultra-competitive AFC North and overall playoff picture in the conference. It's no surprise that sportsbooks project a tight matchup as Baltimore enters as a 3.5-point favorite. With a game total of 46.5, the Ravens have an implied total of 24.75 and the Bengals 21.25.
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson ($10,800 DK/$17,000 FD) is the more expensive quarterback on each site and is the most expensive player overall on FD. Setting aside some key mistakes in Week 10, he's played extremely well for much of the season. Unfortunately, that hasn't translated to his fantasy performance. He's averaged 18.81 points on FD and 20 on DK, neither of which justifies his high price. The Bengals are a decent matchup, with the primary draw being that they have given up 247 rushing yards to quarterbacks this season, fifth most in the league. Jackson is a good bet to post at least 40 rushing yards, which will help him on both sites, and a big game on the ground is his clearest path to a ceiling performance.
Joe Burrow ($10,000 DK/$16,000 FD) checks in just behind Jackson in price. His performance has undoubtedly trended up. He's thrown for multiple touchdowns in five consecutive games, and he's also topped 300 passing yards three times in that span — a particularly useful milestone on DK. The issue is that the Ravens have allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season. Given Cincinnati's ineffective run game and beat-up receiving corps (more on that soon), I'd expect Baltimore to focus on limiting big play.
Despite the recent track record, I'd prefer to play Jackson.
Running Back
These teams offer different options at running back. Cincinnati's backfield is straightforward, as Joe Mixon ($9,600 DK/$12,500 FD) dominates opportunity. That sounds great, but two questions follow: how many opportunities will there be and how efficient will he be with those opportunities? Despite being the only back to carry the ball in Week 10, Mixon had only 11 rushing attempts, and in the last four games, he's had 11-16 carries. He averages only 3.9 yards per carry and has only two gains of more than 20 yards. The saving factor could be that Mixon has at least one rush inside the 5-yard line in each of the last three weeks, though the Ravens have surrendered only three rushing touchdowns all season. Trayveon Williams ($200 DK, $6,500) is the second back but gets two to three carries per week.
Things look quite different in Baltimore. Gus Edwards ($7,000 DK/$12,000 FD) is the lead back and has seen double-digit carries in eight games this season. He's overvalued entering Thursday's game because he's scored seven touchdowns in his last four games, an obviously unsustainable rate. However, he'll have the goal-line role in a strong running offense. He's a better play on FD because his value will be driven by reaching the end zone. Keaton Mitchell ($5,600 DK/$8,500 FD) has emerged as a home-run threat in the last few weeks. He broke a big play for a touchdown in the first quarter against the Browns in Week 10 but curiously disappeared from the gameplan for nearly the entire second half. Mitchell is exciting and can be a difference maker, but for now, it appears he'll continue to have limited chances to hit the home run. The odd-man out has been Justice Hill ($2,800 DK/$7,000 FD), who has fewer than five carries in three of his last four games.
The Bengals are a neutral matchup for running backs.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Tee Higgins (hamstring) is out once again, leaving Ja'Marr Chase ($11,000 DK/$15,000) as the unquestioned top receiver on the slate. He has a back injury of his own, though that didn't stop him from posting 26.4 DK points in Week 10. Given their success in limiting quarterbacks, it should come as no surprise that Baltimore is tough against wide receivers and limited Chase to 5.6 FD points in Week 2. In his place, Tyler Boyd ($6,800 DK, $10,000 FD) had an excellent game. That could be the case once again as Boyd saw 12 targets in Week 10 with Higgins out. Trenton Irwin ($4,400 DK, $7,500 FD) has stepped into the WR3 role in Cincinnati. Hen has some hype after catching a touchdown in Week 10, but he saw only four targets. He can hit again, but his volume of targets will make it difficult.
Tight end is largely forgotten in Cincinnati, though the position offers some potential punt intrigue. Irv Smith ($3,000 DK/$7,000 FD) is a touchdown-or-bust option, but he scored in Week 9. He could be a play on FD. On DK, Tanner Hudson ($2,600 DK/$7,000 FD) is a punt option considering he has 10 receptions combined in his last two games.
The story is the opposite in Baltimore, as Mark Andrews ($8,800 DK, $13,000 FD) leads the team in targets per route run and yards per route run. The Bengals are among the worst teams in the league at defending the tight end, and Andrews managed a solid 4-45-1 line against them in Week 2. Zay Flowers ($7,600 DK, $10,500 FD) leads the team in most receiving statistics because he has run the most routes. He's a safe bet for low double-digit points on DK due to the PPR ceiling, but he has only one touchdown on the season and has only 10 targets inside the 20. He's a decent pay-down option compared to Andrews on DK. Flowers' price on FD makes him attractive, but he's scored less than 10 FD points in eight of 10 games. He is a perfect example of the importance in understanding the difference in scoring between FD and DK.
After that duo, the peripheral options in the Ravens' pass-catching corps are difficult to differentiate. Odell Beckham ($5,200 DK, $8,000 FD) and Rashod Bateman ($4,800 DK, $6,500 FD) have similar surface stats and peripheral numbers. Beckham has better per route numbers and has scored in consecutive weeks, so he has the "hot hand," though that's not predictive of the outcome Thursday.
Kicker
The total in the game suggests kickers could be in play, though there are several viable options cheaper than both Justin Tucker ($5,400 DK/$9,000 FD) and Evan McPherson ($4,000 DK/$8,500 FD). That's particularly true of Tucker, who has only three double-digit fantasy point performances this season. McPherson is the better point-per-dollar option for those who want to roster a kicker.
Defense/Special Teams
Both the Bengals ($3,600 DK/$8,000 FD) and Ravens ($4,600 DK, $9,500 FD) force a lot of turnovers, and the Ravens lead the league in sacks per game. The Ravens are the better play on paper, but the price discrepancy seems too extreme given the relative quality of the units and their fantasy production. I wouldn't rush to play either unit given the quality of the opposing quarterbacks, but in larger field tournaments both are viable.
