Week 18 is usually one of the toughest and most unpredictable for large GPP style DFS contests but there are still edges to be found and exploited. For this week's Underdog Battle Royale slate, we are going to break it down as usual but there are a few caveats. Projections are much more fluid than usual and there is likely lots of news still to come from this. This will make some of this analysis a bit more general than usual but there are often some clear winners that can be found in these weeks. I had one of my biggest bankroll weekends ever in Week 18 0f 2023. Someone will get the volume, so its worth finding out who that will be.
For all of these data points, the sims and ADP is run as of Friday morning.
For up-to-the-minute updates on injuries, lineups, roster changes and more, head to RotoWire's Fantasy Football News & Latest NFL Updates or follow @RotoWireNFL on X.
Roster Structure
RBs | WRs | TEs | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
2 | 2 | 1 | 82.52% |
1 | 3 | 1 | 16.56% |
1 | 2 | 2 | 0.92% |
Not a ton to learn from this but based on current projections RBs are still king. This makes sense as their workloads are the easiest to reliably predict.
What ADPs to Draft
No adjustments to the rules for the sim, so for a refresher read up below.
Just a reminder here are the buckets and the rules on how they can be "drafted".
- ADP <= 6
- ADP
Week 18 is usually one of the toughest and most unpredictable for large GPP style DFS contests but there are still edges to be found and exploited. For this week's Underdog Battle Royale slate, we are going to break it down as usual but there are a few caveats. Projections are much more fluid than usual and there is likely lots of news still to come from this. This will make some of this analysis a bit more general than usual but there are often some clear winners that can be found in these weeks. I had one of my biggest bankroll weekends ever in Week 18 0f 2023. Someone will get the volume, so its worth finding out who that will be.
For all of these data points, the sims and ADP is run as of Friday morning.
For up-to-the-minute updates on injuries, lineups, roster changes and more, head to RotoWire's Fantasy Football News & Latest NFL Updates or follow @RotoWireNFL on X.
Roster Structure
RBs | WRs | TEs | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
2 | 2 | 1 | 82.52% |
1 | 3 | 1 | 16.56% |
1 | 2 | 2 | 0.92% |
Not a ton to learn from this but based on current projections RBs are still king. This makes sense as their workloads are the easiest to reliably predict.
What ADPs to Draft
No adjustments to the rules for the sim, so for a refresher read up below.
Just a reminder here are the buckets and the rules on how they can be "drafted".
- ADP <= 6
- ADP > 6 and <= 10
- ADP > 10 and < 28
- ADP >= 28
By no means are these buckets at all perfect but we need some rules to allow the sim to build "reasonable" teams. Per the rules, you are allowed at most ONE player in Bucket One, TWO players in Bucket Two, THREE players in Bucket Three, and FOUR Players in Bucket Four. Additionally you may only take TWO players across Bucket One and Two and THREE players total across Bucket Two and Three. Again, this is not perfect but it does the job for what we are trying to accomplish. Let's take a look at how the sim actually built teams.
Bucket One | Bucket Two | Bucket Three | Bucket Four | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 20.27% |
1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 19.76% |
1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 17.08% |
1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 14.35% |
0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6.30% |
0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5.44% |
1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5.39% |
0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4.68% |
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2.49% |
1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1.79% |
0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1.44% |
0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.75% |
0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.23% |
0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0.03% |
This week breaks down a bit differently than the weeks before, which aligns well with the Week 18 uncertainty. The later buckets seems to dominate the breakdowns and Bucket Two only contains three players, so it does not appear as frequently in the optimals.
QB Analysis
There are no QBs being taking in the top-10 picks, meaning there are no Bucket One or Two QBs. Beyond that, we have four Bucket Three QBs, however, one being Josh Allen who is highly unlikely to play more than one series. Drafters are aware of this and have been pushing him down accordingly.
The sims' three favorite QBs are Trevor Lawrence, who has some incentive to play the whole game, as well as usual favorites Tyler Shough and Jaxson Dart. The two rookies are both going in Bucket Four and likely to play full games. Shough has a tough matchup with Atlanta, but he's been fantasy gold lately. The loss of Chris Olave may hurt him, though. Beyond those options, everyone looks pretty similar and it is mostly a guessing game of incentives to play.
TE Analysis
Like last week, Trey McBride has a bucket One ADP and once again he looks to be in a good spot. His ability to separate from others at the position make him a fantastic play, and beyond him the options are not super appealing.
Juwan Johnson has most of the target tree entirely to himself which makes him close in the sims to McBride and then Harold Fannin is currently projected in. He likely misses which would open up the TE position even more. Fannin projects at 11 percent optimal so sharing that amongst others instead should really flatten out the optimal rates. Brenton Strange, Colston Loveland and Theo Johnson are three highly projecting TEs who should have incentive to play most, if not all of their games.
RB Analysis
Bucket | Number | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
ONE | 1 | 34.74% |
TWO | 1 | 13.85% |
TWO | 2 | 0.04% |
THREE | 1 | 47.82% |
THREE | 2 | 7.59% |
FOUR | 1 | 50.87% |
FOUR | 2 | 9.99% |
Week 18 projections are all about volume. Bucket One RBs are Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, who both should be reasonably expected to get near normal volume. However, the player the sims and projections like the most are Jonathan Taylor who should also be in line for a huge workload with Riley Leonard under center. Travis Etienne is another highly drafted player with a decent projectable workload. Beyond those names, the options all have fragile projections. However, 60 percent of optimal lineups contain at least one Bucket Four RB. As more players get ruled out, players like Tank Bigsby and others who are filling in should be in line for huge roles.
WR Analysis
Bucket | Number | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
ONE | 1 | 26.98% |
TWO | 1 | 18.23% |
THREE | 1 | 57.58% |
THREE | 2 | 12.50% |
THREE | 3 | 0.18% |
FOUR | 1 | 49.69% |
FOUR | 2 | 18.58% |
FOUR | 3 | 0.46% |
WR is much more all over the place this week, with the highest optimal rate option being Amon-Ra St. Brown, who may be a bit of a question mark from a projection standpoint. 48 players appear in at least one optimal lineup with 18 over five percent. With it being all over the place, my approach in this situations would be to stack with my QBs. If I am betting that my QB will play the whole game, I want to pair him with a pass catcher to make sure my bet pays off. This idea also pairs well with taking early RBs who I feel much more confident about in terms of projectable workload.
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