This article is part of our NFL DFS Pick 'Em series.
Underdog NFL DFS Week 3 Picks
With a few games in the books in the new NFL season, we're starting to get more reliable data about how teams want to run their offenses and the shortcomings (or lack thereof) of certain defenses. We've highlighted our prop tool the first few weeks of the season, which remains a good way to quickly identify some mispriced props on Underdog.
Another great resource on the site, which I often turn to writing this article and others, is the defense vs. position data. It's important to consider who teams have played this early in the season, but the tool can still identify situations to target. A few of those situations early on:
- Washington vs. QB and WRs – I fully intended on highlighting some Ja'Marr Chase props in this article, given the combination of his slow start and this matchup. However, the price UD has on his stats is appropriate (78.5 receiving yards, 10.5 targets, 6.5 receptions, 14.5 fantasy points), which made others stand out more than him.
- Kansas City vs. QB and TE – The Chiefs have served up a lot of production to the tight ends they've faced so far, with Isaiah Likely and Mike Gesicki both delivering standout performances. If there was a Kyle Pitts week, this looks to be it.
- Colts vs. RB – The Colts have allowed 159 and 151 rushing yards to the two lead backs they've faced so far this season. This looks to be a make-or-break week for D'Andre Swift.
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Higher
Jerry Jeudy vs New York Giants - over 39.5 receiving yards
Targeting anyone in the Browns passing attack is admittedly a bold move, but if there is a pass catcher to target with the data we have it's Jeudy. He's the only skill-position player with a yards per route run above 1.00 (1.15) on the team and has an excellent route participation rate. With David Njoku (ankle) and even David Bell (hip) out, targets should condense in Cleveland. The Browns are likely to center their offense on the ground game, but this is a modest enough number that extreme efficiency nor volume is required.
De'Von Achane at Seattle – over 26.5 receiving yards
The logic behind Achane is straightforward. He ranks eighth among running backs in routes run despite playing on only around 60 percent of Miami's offensive snaps, and he also ranks second in targets (to Breece Hall, who has played an additional game) and yards per route run among any backs with a meaningful sample. Now, Skylar Thompson is under center. That's bad news for most of the offense, but Achane should be his favorite dumpoff target Sunday.
Chris Olave vs. Philadelphia – over 11.25 fantasy points
First, it should be noted that Underdog uses 0.5 PPR scoring. Next is that the Eagles who have an exploitable secondary that is led by an aging veteran (Darius Slay) and an inexperienced rookie (Quinyon Mitchell). The latter especially could improve as the season goes on, but have allowed three receivers they've faced this season to surpass this fantasy point total. Olave has gotten overshadowed by Rashid Shaheed in two contests, but there's nothing concerning in Olave's profile.
Brandon Aiyuk at LAR – over 7 targets
We talked about condensed targets in Cleveland,and that is certainly the case in San Francisco. There will be no Deebo Samuel (hip) and likely no George Kittle (hamstring). That leaves Aiyuk – who was just recently passed as a number one receiver – to step up. After running 25 routes in Week 1, he ran 40 in Week 2 and should be ready to roll in Week 3 after missing all of training camp.
Kyle Pitts vs. Kansas City -over 39.5 receiving yards; alternative selection – over 1.5 receiving yards in first quarter
There are obvious risks to selecting an over for Pitts, who is coming close to becoming a permanent fantasy punchline. However, we saw Atlanta's offense improve from Week 1 to 2, and that was at least in part due to scheme changes we saw from the team. Most notably, Kirk Cousins got back under center more frequently after looking awkward and inefficient after working exclusively out of shotgun/pistol in Week 1. That gives me some hope that the Falcons will see what tight ends have done to Kansas City in the first two weeks and get Pitts the ball.
Lower
Will Levis vs. Green Bay – under 29.5 pass attempts
We might be inching closer to seeing Mason Rudolph under center in Tennessee after Levis has begun the season with two boneheaded decisions in as many weeks. Either way, we should be confident that coach Brian Callahan won't be eager to put the fate of the team in Levis's hands. Assuming Jordan Love (knee) doesn't make a miraculous return, the Packers will also be looking to hide their quarterback and run the ball. This has the potential to be a very low-scoring game with a ton of combined rush attempts.
Daniel Jones at Cleveland – under 182.5 passing yards
This seems like a pretty obvious selection given that Jones put up only 186 yards against Washington, who have had the worst secondary in the league early on this season. The math does get a little dicey, and it comes down to whether we believe in Jones's larger sample (career 6.5 yards per attempt) or his significantly worse sample from this season (5.2 yards per attempt. The truth likely lies somewhere in the middle, meaning we could project he'd need roughly 30 pass attempts to get to the over. We also need to take into account the matchup. The Browns have allowed 6.44 yards per attempt this season while facing Dak Prescott and Trevor Lawrence. Say what you want about Lawrence, but he's certainly outplaying Jones. That pushes me to the under, even if it may be a sweat Sunday afternoon.
Zamir White vs. Carolina – under 70.5 rushing + receiving yards
This is a matchup of incompetence against incompetence. White has 84 total yards from scrimmage across the first two games of the season combined. There's also an abundance of analysis scattered throughout the internet about White's lack of vision 4for Luke Getsy's zone-blocking scheme. Coach Antonio Pierce suggested that the team could change its run scheme after the team's abysmal start to the season on the ground, but in the short term, I would expect White to lose some work to Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah.
Bijan Robinson vs. Kansas City – under 6.5 targets
Robinson has gone under this mark in the first two games of the season, which is a good starting point for the under. As we've now mentioned a few times, Kansas City has funneled targets to tight ends early this season. Kirk Cousins has also surprisingly targeted Ray-Ray McCloud a lot early in the season, meaning Pitts, Drake London, Darnell Mooney and McCloud could all reasonably be prioritized ahead of Robinson in the passing game.
