This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
We're back at it for our Week 16 Underdog Pick' em selections. By now, we've settled into a nice rhythm so we'll just take a minute to highlight the primary tools I used to reach my picks and reference throughout the article:
Fantasy points allowed vs. Position
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Higher
Saquon Barkley – higher than 96.5 rushing yards
It's dangerous to take season-long trends and blindly take the higher, but we can use it as a starting point. Barkley has topped 100 rushing yards in nine of 14 games and seven of his last 10 matchups. Stating the obvious, it's clear that he has the ability to top this projection.
That brings us to the specifics of this week in a matchup against the Commanders, which is very friendly to running backs. They have allowed 4.97 yards per carry to opposing backs (second-highest in the league) and opposing teams have the fifth-lowest pass rate over expectation against them (4.8 percent). Expect to see a lot of Barkley with plenty of big plays Sunday.
Caleb Williams – higher than 215.5 passing yards
Stack with Keenan Allen – higher than 53.5 receiving yards
Things haven't gone to plan for Williams and the Bears offense this season, but they should have the chance to make a statement against the division-rival Lions this week. We can throw out season-long statistics in terms of the matchup, as the Lions are currently missing four key members of the secondary with Brian Branch (calf) also questionable. It's possible that the Bears will try to run the ball through a beat-up front seven, but the Lions are likely to be able to score and push Chicago into a more aggressive offensive approach.
Meanwhile, Williams has targeted Allen most frequently among the big pass-catchers in Chicago. Allen has a 26.5 target per route run in the last four weeks, the highest in the league. His 1.75 yards per route run is identical to DJ Moore, so Allen is my preferred stacking option with Williams.
James Conner – higher than 80.5 rushing yards
Conner is another high-profile running back heading into a very favorable matchup. He draws the Panthers, the only team to allow over 5.0 yards per carry to opposing backs. More recent splits show there hasn't been any improvement for the unit, and it now draws one of the run-heaviest teams relative to expectation (-2.6 percent). Arizona is a near-touchdown favorite despite being on the road, so Conner should see plenty of action while playing from ahead.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba – higher than 64.5 receiving yards
Smith-Njigba draws attention both because this number seems too low and also due to the matchup. At the simplest level of analysis, he's topped his projection in seven straight games. Most encouragingly, he's had that strong string of production in different ways, including both high volume and strong efficiency. His ability to generate yards on relatively low targets adds some safety and multiple paths to hitting this mark.
The matchup is among the best due to the volume of targets the Vikings typically face. Opposing wide receivers have been targeted 310 times this season, the highest number in the league. Minnesota is relatively effective in limiting wide receivers despite that volume, so the hope is that we will see Smith-Njigba targeted often by Geno Smith.
Lower
Dorian Thompson-Robinson – lower than 196.5 passing yards
Understandably, the Browns wanted to get away from Jameis Winston as their starter due to his struggles with turnovers, but there has been very little redeemable that we've seen from Dorian Thompson-Robinson early in his career. In three career starts and 146 pass attempts, he's averaged 3.7 yards per attempt while never topping 165 passing yards. The matchup is extremely favorable, but we shouldn't expect DTR to look like a capable quarterback in the NFL until proven otherwise.
Bryce Young – lower than 15.45 fantasy points
Young has gotten praise for making progress in year two and since returning from a benching. He has looked like a passable game manager at times, but he's still been very inefficient with expanded opportunity. In four games since Carolina's bye, he's attempted 35, 46, 34 and 28 passes, but he's squandered that volume by averaging only 6.8 yards per attempt with six total touchdowns. His game log suggests that he should go higher than this projection, but two of those six touchdowns have been rushing – propping up his poor passing. Young isn't known for using his legs, so that production is likely unsustainable. Relying primarily on his arm against a decent defense in the Cardinals isn't likely to lead to a big fantasy day.
Matthew Stafford – lower than 33.5 pass attempts
Perception may be that the Rams are still the spread out, run-and-gun offense from earlier in Sean McVay's tenure, but the reality is different. They have the seventh-lowest pass rate over expectation and are favored even on the road against the Jets. Put another way, in the team's eight wins this season, Stafford has topped this projection twice. One came in overtime (he still hit went higher then 33.5 attempts in regulation) and the other was 34 pass attempts. For those that project the Rams to win this game, taking the lower makes sense.
