This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Thanksgiving Day Football, Week 12
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Thanksgiving Day Football brings an NFC East matchup between the Washington Commanders (4-7) and the Dallas Cowboys (7-3). Let's dig into the betting market and discuss three wagers that could prove to be profitable.
Commanders vs. Cowboys Betting Odds for Monday Night Football
Commanders: Spread +12.0 (-108), +490 Moneyline; Projected Score 18.5 points
Cowboys: Spread -12.0 (-112), -675 Moneyline; Projected Score 30.5 points
Game Total: 49.0 points
This line opened at Cowboys -5.5, moved to -6.0, then jumped to -9.5 on Nov. 19. It has continued to climb in favor of the Cowboys and sits at -12.0 and -12.5 in most places, but some have dropped to -11.5. The Cowboys are coming off a big win as -10.5 road favorites against the Panthers in Carolina, 33-10. The Commanders are coming off a terrible loss as -9.0 favorites to the Giants at home, 31-19.
The total opened at 44.5 and has steadily climbed all the way to 49.0
Totaling bets thus far, 71 percent of the money and 69 percent of the bets are on the Cowboys. There is 90 percent of the money on the Cowboys' moneyline, which is 96 percent of the bets. There is 58 percent of the money and 51 percent of the bets on the OVER.
Key injury situations to watch
Commanders: CB Emmanuel Forbes (OUT); RB Antonio Gibson (Questionable);
Cowboys: CB Trevon Diggs, LB Leighton Vander Esch (OUT); RB Rico Dowdle (Questionable)
OL Tyron Smith, WR Michael Gallup (Did not practice - Tuesday)
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Commanders vs. Cowboys Betting Picks This Week
Commanders vs. Cowboys Best Bet: CeeDee Lamb OVER 89.5 receiving yards (FanDuel -120) for 0.75 unit
I took an alternative receiving yards prop on CeeDee Lamb a few weeks ago and it easily paid off. Lamb and Prescott are on an amazing run and it should continue on Thanksgiving against the Commanders. He was averaging 154 yards per game over his last four before the Panthers game in which the Cowboys were on cruise control and did not need to air it out.
There is some pause for concern as Lamb is dealing with a bum ankle on a short week, but the exact quote from him is "I'll be out there." Washington's defense has allowed the second-most touchdowns and yards to opposing wide receivers.
Commanders vs. Cowboys Best Bet: Dak Prescott OVER 275.5 passing yards (FanDuel -114) for 1 unit
We just saw Tommy DeVito throw for 246 passing yards and three touchdowns against this Commanders pass defense that is also dealing with some injuries. Dak Prescott has been on an incredible run over his last four games: 71 percent completion rate, 318 passing yards per game, 13 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.
Commanders vs. Cowboys Best Bet: Dak Prescott 3+ passing touchdowns (FanDuel +205) for 0.5 unit
Prescott has averaged 3.25 touchdowns per game in this four-game stretch and the Commanders' pass defense is one of the worst in the NFL. The Commanders have allowed 24 passing touchdowns, which is the most in football.
If I could bet Prescott 2+ passing touchdowns in the first half for even better odds, I would.
Commanders vs. Cowboys Best Bet: Brandin Cooks OVER 36.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -115) for 0.75 unit
Cooks has gone OVER this posted total in three out of the last four. If the Cowboys get out to a huge early lead, we could see Lamb come off the field and Cooks get more snaps and targets. This Washington passing defense is so rough, and I know I have mentioned it over and over.
Commanders vs. Cowboys Prediction
Commanders - #27 overall DVOA, #23 DVOA offense, #30 DVOA defense
Cowboys - #6 overall DVOA, #10 DVOA offense, #3 DVOA defense
I am putting a lot of stock on the Cowboys' passing offense against this terrible Commanders passing defense that got torn up by Tommy DeVito. Dallas has destroyed inferior opponents all year, especially at home. This is a short week, so maybe they take it easy in the second half, but I think they roll in the game and first half for sure.
The Cowboys continue to roll at home against weak opponents - Cowboys 33 Commanders 20
