The 2024 NFL season has officially ended, which gives us the opportunity to look back at some of the interesting trends of the campaign. One trend to consider is how the trajectory of teams changed over the course of the season, and specifically which team's performances declined the most in the second half relative to the first half of the campaign.
First, let's take a look at the data.
NFL's 10 Biggest Second-Half Drops
Rank | Team | Difference (by win%) |
1 | Chicago Bears | -0.389 |
T-2 | Houston Texans | -0.306 |
T-2 | Pittsburgh Steelers | -0.306 |
4 | Atlanta Falcons | -0.292 |
5 | San Francisco 49ers | -0.278 |
6 | Green Bay Packers | -0.194 |
T-7 | Cleveland Browns | -0.139 |
T-7 | New York Giants | -0.139 |
T-7 | Tennessee Titans | -0.139 |
10 | Washington Commanders | -0.083 |
Methodology: With the NFL regular season behind us, RotoWire.com was curious to see which teams ended the season doing worse than they started. Using Pro-Football-Reference.com, we calculated the record for the first eight games and the record for the final nine games of the regular season for each team. We then ranked the top 10 biggest drops based on the difference between the first and second halves of the regular season.
QB Play More Critical Than Ever
Next, let's consider explanations for why each team landed on this list. The most common theme was poor or declining quarterback play.
QB Kirk Cousins is an example. In the first eight games of the Falcons season, Cousins maintained a 14:7 TD:INT ratio. From Weeks 9-14, he had just four touchdowns as opposed to nine interceptions before he was benched in favor of rookie Michael Penix.
QB C.J. Stroud had a disappointing sophomore season, in part due to season-ending knee injuries suffered by both Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell, as well as poor play along the Texans' offensive line. However, Stroud played his own part in the team's demise by throwing eight interceptions across the team's final seven games after tossing only four picks in Houston's first nine matchups.
Cleveland suffered from poor quarterback play all season, but the combination of Jameis Winston and Dorian Thompson-Robinson was a disaster from a turnover and efficiency perspective, respectively.
Injuries, Scheduling Also Factors
The best teams can always overcome bad injury luck or tough schedules, but the 49ers and Steelers each stand out in that regard. San Francisco dealt with injuries throughout the season, with high-profile players on both side of the ball missing significant time, including Brandon Aiyuk (knee), Christian McCaffrey (Achilles/knee), Dre Greenlaw (Achilles), and Trent Williams (ankle) among plenty of others.
That level of attrition would be difficult for any team to overcome.
In Pittsburgh, the schedule was a tale of two extremes. The most difficult stretch came late in the season, with the Steelers falling to the Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs and Bengals in the final four weeks of the regular season.
Commanders In Context
The Commanders had the most successful season relative to preseason expectation and their inclusion on this list is misleading. The Commanders went 5-3 across the second half of the season, but those three losses came from Weeks 10-12. Washington didn't lose again thereafter until the NFC Championship Game following a surprising and impressive playoff run with 
QB Jayden Daniels, highlighted by a win over the No. 1 seed Lions.
The Packers sputtered down the stretch relative to the Commanders, but still reached the playoffs and recorded double-digit wins for the first time since 2021.
Limped To Finish Line
The Bears, Giants and Titans suffered from a combination of poor coaching and lack of talent on the roster, though there is reason for each team to have hope moving forward.
The Titans and Giants pick first and third overall in the upcoming draft, respectively, with the chance to land talent that can change the face of their franchise.
The 
Bears hired Ben Johnson as their head coach, and his primary focus will be on maximizing the production of the ultra-talented Caleb Williams.
