This article is part of our Corner Report series.
This article will go game by game for the Divisional Round slate looking at the top wide receivers from an offense and, based on the inside/outside and left/right splits of those receivers, identify the cornerbacks most likely to face them in man coverage. This post will have to be a little shorter and lean more on speculation/generalities than the entries to come, because teams haven't yet conclusively revealed their personnel tendencies.
Receivers rarely see the same corner every play, be it due to formation quirks or zone coverage calls by the defense, so a receiver's fortunes depend on much more than just the quality of the corner they're likely to see the most in a given game. Even against a bad corner, a good receiver can be denied the opportunity if the pass rush or something else outside his control complicates things. But it's part of the puzzle, and it's worth keeping track of.
Receivers are left with an Upgrade, Downgrade, or Even verdict based on their projected matchup. This shouldn't be read as 'good' or 'bad' but rather a measured tweak from the receiver's baseline projection.
Baltimore Ravens (-9.5) vs. Houston Texans
BALTIMORE WIDE RECEIVERS
Cold and wind might make this game somewhat challenging for passing in general, and the sum of the Houston pass rush and coverage personnel probably exceeds that of the Baltimore route runners and blocking, in my opinion. This might therefore be a difficult setting for all Ravens receivers. Zay Flowers continues to be the only one to play a three down role, with Odell Beckham seeing limited snaps most weeks due to injury issues while Rashod Bateman is tossed aside any time Flowers lines up wide with Beckham still on the field (and in such cases Nelson Agholor moves into the slot). Todd Monken has been a major improvement over Greg Roman, but the choice to reduce Bateman to a field-stretching specialist (something he is not good at) sometimes puts the offense in weird spots.
It's in any case difficult to see any sustained opportunity for either of Bateman or Agholor. Flowers and to a lesser extent Beckham are the realistic options to produce, but the corner matchups would be challenging for both regardless of who specifically gets Derek Stingley or Steven Nelson. Flowers and Agholor would get all the shots at slot corner Desmond King, but this is not an obvious opening, either. Though perhaps less intimidating than Stingley or Nelson, King has always thrived at lower depths, which is where Flowers operates most of the time. King would probably be beaten more easily deep, but Flowers and Agholor don't have much of a deep game.
The other thing to keep in mind is that Mark Andrews might be active, and if he is the Ravens could opt to largely remove the slot wide receiver rep in favor of a two-TE offense where one of Andrews or Isaiah Likely instead lines up in the slot rather than Agholor. Nevermind on that. Isaiah Likely should still see some slot reps while Charlie Kolar plays in-line, but no Andrews probably locks Agholor into at least 20 snaps (and usually closer to 30).
Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: Rashod Bateman, Nelson Agholor
Even: Zay Flowers, Odell Beckham
HOUSTON WIDE RECEIVERS
Be it due to his own talent, the abilities of C.J. Stroud, the scheme of Bobby Slowik or some combination of the three, it seems safe to say Nico Collins is matchup-proof at the moment. Collins' outrageous production in 2023 gives reason to give him the benefit of the doubt even against Marlon Humphrey-caliber corners, yet Humphrey won't even be able to play in this game. Much as Brandon Stephens is sharp on the other side, he probably projects for the disadvantage against Collins. Ronald Darby is much smaller than Collins and by now probably slower, too, so there's an easier advantage yet. If Rock Ya-Sin is out there for some reason then he's a sitting duck.
Collins rarely goes into the slot, where instead the Texans have wasted their time with Robert Woods. It's not obvious why Woods would have an advantage over Arthur Maulet at this point, let alone Kyle Hamilton. Noah Brown has somehow come across as vastly more explosive than Woods this year, but Brown is done for the year. It's not clear whether John Metchie or Xavier Hutchinson can do much otherwise.
Upgrade: Nico Collins
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Robert Woods
San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) vs. Green Bay Packers
SAN FRANCISCO WIDE RECEIVERS
Jaire Alexander is a very good corner but he's probably not grounds for concern re: Brandon Aiyuk, and given the YAC production there's definitely no reason for Deebo Samuel to be concerned. To whatever degree Alexander might be intimidating might be further undermined if Green Bay continues to leave Alexander on one side of the field, in which case Kyle Shanahan can just match up a receiver against Carrington Valentine if he chooses. Keisean Nixon has generally struggled in the slot but might have less of a presence in this game since the 49ers run so much I-formation (no slot WR).
For Samuel and Aiyuk this game probably leans closer to an Upgrade rather than a Downgrade, it's just difficult to name and place the advantage because it primarily exists for whoever is running against Valentine, which will vary from play to play. But at least one of the 49ers star wideouts should go off here.
Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk
GREEN BAY WIDE RECEIVERS
Charvarius Ward might be vulnerable to Jayden Reed for trait mismatch reasons (Reed possesses more start/stop and change of direction), but Ward will probably more so match up against Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks and Christian Watson. Bo Melton looks capable but will probably be benched in favor of Watson here.
To me Ward holds a safe advantage over all of Doubs, Watson and Wicks, to the point that he might be a nightmare matchup for all three. Although Ward only plays on the left side, it's not as simple as lining up the receiver instead against Ambry Thomas on the defense's right side, because the 49ers know Thomas needs help and will get him that help. It's not necessarily easier to beat Thomas with a safety than it is Ward without one, in other words, but for Green Bay's prospects I'm worried because I don't think Doubs, Wicks or Watson can beat Ward more than a couple times. If Thomas does not get safety help on a given play, though, then there is plenty of reason to call the advantage for Doubs, Wicks and Watson.
In the slot Deommodore Lenoir is a better fit than he ever was on the boundary, and there's a chance that over the course of this year he has gone from a liability to something close to a strength. If Lenoir plays well against Reed in the slot then it would be impressive from Lenoir's end, but he has to be careful against Reed's explosiveness. Also, the Packers have used Watson as their second slot receiver recently, and Watson's speed/length combination are a danger to the short and dense Lenoir.
Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, Christian Watson
Detroit Lions (-6.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
DETROIT WIDE RECEIVERS
Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean might not be a feared duo at the moment but both players are capable of high-level play at least on situational bases, and a lot of their struggle moments tend to happen when they're playing in situations that don't suit their abilities – in Davis' case he's not built to run downfield with plus speed, while in Dean's case he has an absurd surplus of length and downfield speed but lacks the start/stop and change of direction ability necessary to thrive laterally. It's not obvious that the Lions have the receiver personnel to put either corner in a difficult spot.
For Josh Reynolds the matchup for Davis might be one of the most challenging in the league, because Davis is a big grappler who is comfortable playing press coverage up to the intermediate or so. Dean is probably the more likely of the two corners to give up something to Reynolds on an in-breaking route, but Dean is usually beaten on such plays by receivers with a little more explosiveness than Reynolds. Reynolds can probably make some plays against these guys, though it might require a botched zone handoff or a stumble to create separation.
Jameson Williams would need a double-move to get vertical space on Dean (it's possible in theory, anyway) but should be able to torch Davis vertically if the Buccaneers leave the matchup with no safety help. Williams can torch many or most corners vertically, though, and the fact that he hasn't popped up consistently is probably due at least in part to the fact that Jared Goff does not thrive making the kinds of throws that Williams gets most uniquely open on – fly routes and downfield posts – with the exception of some playaction setups provided the pocket is clean. Ben Johnson might want to cook up such a playaction look, if he were still saving the play from last week, but it in any case isn't clear how Williams could produce consistently in this matchup, even if the big play is in there somewhere.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has a safe advantage over Christian Izien in the slot, and torched the Buccaneers accordingly back in Week 6 (12 catches for 124 yards and one touchdown on 15 targets), so it will be interesting to see if the Buccaneers try something different there. More specifically, it will be interesting to see if they phase out or move Izien back to safety at times so that Antoine Winfield can leave the safety position to cover St. Brown himself. There's no guarantee that St. Brown would suffer at all with that switch, but Winfield has a history of playing corner and has the traits to do it. The Buccaneers in any case already saw that Izien can't handle St. Brown without much more help than last time, but if it were easy to roll help at St. Brown someone would have done it by now.
Upgrade: Amon-Ra St. Brown (lowered to Even if Winfield plays slot CB)
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Jameson Williams, Josh Reynolds
TAMPA BAY WIDE RECEIVERS
This one is a bit simpler: the Lions corners can't cover Chris Godwin and especially not Mike Evans. The Lions knew going into the year they were trying a Moneyball thing at corner, but the injuries to Emmanuel Moseley and Jerry Jacobs have made it more difficult yet to thread the needle. A limited retread like Cam Sutton more easily escapes notice as your CB3, but when he's your CB1 he tends to get roasted in the spotlight at some point. Sutton and slot man Brian Branch are both somewhat competent underneath, but going downfield is in the skill set of neither. Kindle Vildor doesn't have the skill set to contribute at any level of the field, really. The Lions corners are so vertically challenged that they even need to worry about Trey Palmer getting deep on them.
Upgrade: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Trey Palmer
Downgrade: N/A
Even: N/A
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
BUFFALO WIDE RECEIVERS
In a previous time Stefon Diggs would get the easy benefit of the doubt even against corners like L'Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie, but those days might be gone. Diggs has shown some life lately – the last two weeks were better than the two months that preceded it – but historically any game where Diggs falls flat is one where the Bills overall passing game is liable to struggle. It would help if the tight ends or Khalil Shakir could move the chains in cases where Diggs can't, and there's some recent reason for optimism there, too.
This matchup should be one that gives us a better idea of how real that apparent recent progress really might be – the Steelers and Dolphins defenses were both battered and on their last gasps the last two weeks, whereas the Chiefs defense is at or close to full strength. Sneed or McDuffie plus a safety might constitute a tougher test than what Diggs saw either of the last two weeks, and the leftover of Sneed or McDuffie would be free to assign to Shakir, and it's probably unfair to expect Shakir to beat either corner. Shakir is a good player though and can't be counted out – if he manages to catch Jaylen Watson or Joshua Williams outside then that would be a matchup where Shakir has the clear advantage.
Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Stefon Diggs, Khalil Shakir
KANSAS CITY WIDE RECEIVERS
Rashee Rice is a menace and fully locked in, but now comes the phase of defensive adjustments as defenses realize Rice is not only the greatest threat among the Chiefs wideouts, but even more of a threat than Travis Kelce. Most of Rice's production to this point has occurred with defenses making Kelce their priority. That might change here.
The good news is that Rice has been getting more work on the boundary in recent weeks after almost exclusively playing from the slot to begin the year. If Rice can make plays outside then that eases the concern that comes with facing Taron Johnson in the slot, though Rice might be good enough to hold the advantage even against a standout slot corner like Johnson. Beyond Rice, no Chiefs wideout is likely to produce in any noticeable volume sense.
With that said, the Chiefs need Mecole Hardman on the field for at least decoy purposes, especially against this effective but slow group of Buffalo defensive backs. Safeties like Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde were barely getting past the 4.6-second mark when they ran their 40s a decade ago, and Rasul Douglas was a safety tweener out of West Virginia due to his 4.59-second 40 in 2017. You make this personnel strain when you make it chase speed, so memo to Andy Reid: make them chase someone! The Bills corners are at their best facing forward to pounce on shorter routes, so subject them to the opposite of that, if only to throw them off their rhythm occasionally.
There's no need for Douglas and Dane Jackson to fret about Justin Watson, whose inability to get open underneath or in the intermediate led Reid to understand Watson as a 'Deep Specialist,' even though he doesn't have the wheels to even be that. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has the wheels but not the hands (Watson doesn't have the hands either, come to think of it). Kadarius Toney is a joke. Skyy Moore, apparently available off IR, might be able to play in the slot but definitely cannot produce from the boundary.
That the Chiefs obviously could use Hardman and his speed more than the complete nothing offered by Watson is something anyone could have foreseen before the season, but something Andy Reid has refused to see even as it unfolds in front of his own eyes for months on end. That Hardman gives the Chiefs juice they badly need is no more obvious now than it has been all along, and Reid has shown he's liable to push the wrong buttons even in games where the Chiefs have no margin for error.
Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Rashee Rice
