This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Games
Cincinnati Bengals 
+6.0 (-110) at Baltimore Ravens
Big spot here for a Bengals team that has played pretty well on the road, and has performed well vs. the run this year. Cincinnati ranks seventh in the league in rushing yards allowed (543), as well as sixth in yards per carry (3.9). That puts them in good position to defend the Ravens offense, who tend to do most of their damage on the ground. Meanwhile, the Bengals remain one of the most efficient teams through the air, tied for third in the league at 8.8 yards per passing attempt, and fifth in touchdown passes thrown (15). This sets them up well vs. the Ravens defense, who have allowed the eighth-most passing yards overall. It seems likely the Bengals will be able to move the ball this week, while the Ravens appear a little overvalued coming off their surprising blowout win over the Chargers. I think the Bengals keep it competitive here.
Green Bay Packers 
-7.5 (-110) vs. Washington Football Team
As demonstrated last week vs. the Chiefs (and pretty much every week this year), Football Team struggles mightily against the pass, ranking dead-last in both passing yards allowed (1857) and passing touchdowns allowed (16). Packers QB Aaron Rodgers should have little trouble solving their defense, as Washington has allowed opponents to score 30+ points in each of their last four games. Meanwhile, Green Bay has recorded a pair of easy home wins this year (winning both games by 10+ points), and there seems little reason to expect a reversal this week. Surprisingly, this game opened Packers -9 and has been dropping steadily throughout the week, making the Packers an attractive side in teasers (laying under a field goal at home vs. a weak opponent). The Patriots -1 at home vs. the Jets is another useful option.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 
-12.0 (-110) vs. Chicago Bears
The Buccs are a heavy favorite this week, but that hasn't been a bad thing for them, as they ran up the score in both starts as double-digit home favorites (48-25 over Atlanta, 45-17 over Miami), with Brady throwing five touchdown passes in both games. It seems likely the Bears will have trouble scoring this week, as they do virtually everything on the ground. The Bears offense ranks dead-last in both passing yards (902) and passing touchdowns (3), while the Buccaneers own the league's best rushing defense. That's not a good combination for the Bears, and if they can't score, I'm not sure how they're going to stay within shouting distance of the Buccaneers in Tampa.
Player Props
Derrick Henry over 117.5 rushing yards (-115)
Obviously, this is a large number, but Henry covers it virtually every week, and this rates as one of his better matchups. In his last five games, Henry has rushed for 182, 113, 157, 130, and 143 yards. Meanwhile, the Chiefs rushing defense is allowing 5.2 yards per carry, which is 2nd-worst in the league behind the Chargers. As long as the Titans can stay reasonably close (and the Chiefs rarely win via blowout), it seems likely Henry is headed for the mid-100's in this matchup.
Tom Brady over 2.5 touchdown passes (+115)
As mentioned above, Brady threw five touchdown passes in both games as a double-digit home favorite this year. He also threw four touchdowns vs. Dallas in their season opener, so that's 14 touchdown passes in three home starts for Brady this year. It's also true that most of Tampa's touchdowns come through the air, with the Buccaneers recording 17 touchdown passes compared to 6 rushing touchdowns on the year. With the Buccaneers team total in the 30's, plus-money on Brady to throw three touchdown passes seems like a fair deal.
