2022 U.S. Open Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

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Updated on June 15, 2022 6:46PM EST

U.S. Open Betting Preview

The third major championship of the year has arrived, and the storylines will be plentiful at The Country Club in Brookline, Mass.

One big one will involve Rory McIlroy, who wound up on top of a star-studded leaderboard at the RBC Canadian Open and is favored to win this week's event at 10-1 odds. Another topic sure to come up frequently is the LIV Golf Series, particularly with many of those who hopped off the PGA Tour train squaring off against those who remain for the first time. Let's not forget world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, who checks in at 14-1, nor Jon Rahm, who was the favorite last year at 10-1 and surged late at Torrey Pines for a one-stroke victory over Louis Oosthuizen.

Brookline will host the U.S. Open for a fourth time, and for the first time since 1988. The track hosted the U.S. Amateur in 2013, an event won by a golfer in the field this week, Matt Fitzpatrick. The course is a par-70 at approximately 7,250 yards. Golfers will need to come out ready, as the first four holes, which include three par-4s of at least 480 yards and the long 215-yard par-3 second hole, present the toughest test on the course. The driveable par-4 fifth will provide one of the few prime scoring opportunities for players, as there are only two par-5s on the course, and the 14th hole checks in at 620 yards and will likely lend toward a layup for most or all of the field. While The Country Club features minimal hazards, there's still plenty of trouble lurking, as players will see a typical U.S. Open setup with narrow fairways, extremely penal rough and fast greens. Hitting fairways will be important, but shorter hitters will struggle to hit them at a high clip and will have minimal margin for error. The longer hitters should have an advantage, as they are more likely to fly over the many doglegs they will see.

Ultimately, those who excel at approach play will be my main targets this week. They will be able to gain strokes on the field by hitting mid-to-long irons into greens that won't be easy to dart regularly.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 3:00 PM ET Tuesday.

That's Major

The following five golfers, with a minimum of three appearances, have the lowest scoring average in majors since the start of 2021.

Morikawa was the most consistent player over the last six majors, notching four top-10s, including a win at last year's Open Championship. His recent form is a little troublesome, though, as his last top-10 came at The Masters and he has lost strokes in the short game in five straight tournaments. He will need a strong week on the greens to get into contention, and he feels like a boom-or-bust play at 30-1 to win. Another player who is no stranger to success in the biggest events is Oosthuizen, who posted three consecutive top-3 finishes in majors last year. He has the third lowest scoring average (70.7) at the U.S. Open since 2017, trailing only Brooks Koepka (69.3) and Xander Schauffele (70.4).

Approach the Bench

These golfers, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes on approach over their last 20 rounds.

McIlroy comes in on a high note after a final-round 62 led to a victory in Canada. His approach play has really heated up in recent months, and that's not the only area of the game he has dominated in, as he ranks in the top-35 in every Strokes Gained category and leads the Tour in SG: Total by over a quarter of a shot per round. McIlroy is the man to beat this week, and deservedly so. Meanwhile, Pereira has also been hot, nearly winning in just his second major appearance until a double bogey on his final hole derailed his attempt to win the PGA Championship. Impressively, he shook off the disappointment with a top-10 the following week at Colonial and a top-15 at the Memorial. The oddsmakers have taken notice, pricing him at 45-1 odds. As such, he is a better target in daily fantasy sports contests at a below-average rate.

U.S. Open: Outright Picks

Patrick Cantlay (20-1)

Some bettors may be fading Cantlay. He has struggled in the bigger events this year, missing the cut at THE PLAYERS and PGA Championship while also being a non-factor at Augusta. However, Cantlay notched a pair of top-3 finishes over his last three starts and is gaining over 0.25 strokes per round in the four major Strokes Gained categories. He is a great course fit at Brookline, where players will need to click in all facets of their game.

Corey Conners (60-1)

Having Conners outside the top 25 choices on the board creates excellent value, as the Canadian has been a mainstay on leaderboards recently with six top-15 finishes over his last 10 starts. Considering he ranks eighth in SG: Off-the-Tee and fourth in greens in regulation this season, it's seemingly only a matter of time before Conners finds himself in the winner's circle.

Aaron Wise (100-1)

Wise has been in excellent form for a couple months, having made his last five cuts and picking up four top-25s, the last being his runner-up finish at the Memorial against some tough competition. Wise relies on his superb ball striking, as he is gaining 0.97 strokes per round off the tee and on approach. There's no doubt those will be key factors this week.

U.S. Open: Top-10 Wagers

Harold Varner III (5-1)

Varner, who has moved up to a career-best 35th in the Official World Golf Ranking, is making his first U.S. Open appearance since 2018. The key for Varner will be whether or not he can put himself in favorable positions off the tee, as his driver has been sporadic. He should do fine elsewhere, as he has been one of the better iron players and scramblers out there.

Davis Riley (6-1)

Riley struggled early in his rookie season, but the 25-year-old has been playing phenomenal golf for few months, picking up six top-15 finishes over his last eight starts, including a runner-up at the Valspar Championship. He posted a T13 at the PGA Championship, so he's clearly both comfortable and capable of playing well on the big stage.

Branden Grace (11-1)

Grace has shown well in major championships, racking up six top-10s in 36 starts, three of which have come at U.S. Open venues including his T7 at Torrey Pines last year. While his form this year has been subpar, his track record at majors is too good to pass up at this price.

U.S. Open: Head-to-Head Matchups

Jon Rahm (-120) over Scottie Scheffler

It feels harsh to bash either of the top two players in the world, but Scheffler has cooled slightly since winning The Masters and he missed the cut at the PGA Championship. Many would say Rahm has disappointed this year, but that is overstating things, as he leads the Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee. In addition to winning last year's edition of this event, Rahm also finished T3 in the 2019 U.S. Open.

Jordan Spieth (-120) over Cameron Smith

Despite going through some unusual putting woes this year, Spieth has still managed to win and post a pair of runner-up results. He has finished top-25 in over half of his major starts, making him a good fit for one-on-one matchups. Smith has mostly been a non-factor in majors other than The Masters, missing the cut in two of his last four U.S. Open appearances and recording a best finish of T38 over that span.