This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
BMW Championship Betting Preview
There are just two tournaments left in the 2022-23 PGA Tour season, and this week the remaining 50 players head to the Chicago area for the BMW Championship at Olympia Fields Country Club.
The venue last hosted the 2020 edition of the event, which was won by Jon Rahm in a playoff over Dustin Johnson. This year's favorite -- Rory McIlroy, at 13-2 odds -- and FedExCup Standings leader Rahm -- listed at 9-1 -- headline a group of players attempting to secure one of the 30 spots in next week's TOUR Championship. Last year, Patrick Cantlay -- at 12-1 odds -- defeated Scott Stallings by one stroke for his eighth PGA Tour victory.
Olympia Fields plays as a par-70 at 7,366 yards and is an incredibly difficult setup, as only five of the 69 players who took part three years ago finished over par, and 20 golfers finished at least 10-over. Seven of the par-4s play at least 450 yards, and the average score on absolutely zero of them was under par in 2020. The two par-5s both play over 600 yards, so birdie opportunities are few and far between. Off the tee, players are faced with narrow fairways that are surrounded by trees and thick rough.
The top four finishers last time around all ranked top-10 in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee for the week, and given how difficult of a time even the most accurate drivers will have hitting fairways, there's a premium on distance over accuracy. I'll also be targeting players that are solid from tee to green and those who succeed at avoiding bogeys.
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On Fire Off the Tee
These five golfers, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes off the tee over their last 20 rounds.
- Rory McIlroy: 1.25
- Scottie Scheffler: 0.92
- Byeong Hun An: 0.86
- Patrick Cantlay: 0.78
- Max Homa: 0.77
McIlroy had a benign start to the year but has kicked it into another gear this summer, winning the Scottish Open and posting eight consecutive top-10 finishes. That has largely been due to his superior ball striking -- not to mention the fact he has been the most prodigious driver on Tour of late. He finished T12 here in 2020 following a disappointing final round and is the player to beat this week. Much further down the board we find An at 40-1. He put together a solid run of golf over the last month, with a T3 at the Scottish Open and a T2 at the Wyndham Championship. Statistically, it has been a very good season, as An ranks 19th in SG: Tee-to-Green and appears to have found his form of years past. An has typically been held back by his putter, but he has been faring well on the greens and looks like a dark horse to keep an eye on.
BMW Championship Bets: Outright Picks
Xander Schauffele (16-1)
I was oh-so-close last week with the outright picks, as Cantlay lost in a playoff and Jordan Spieth was also in the mix. This week we will turn to Schauffele, who feels overdue for a win. He has come close multiple times this year and always shows well in the playoffs. Schauffele is sixth in SG: Total this season and is having the best year of his career with the irons.
Tyrrell Hatton (22-1)
Hatton finished T16 here in 2020 despite losing strokes on the greens, which is typically one of his best assets. He's 17th in bogey avoidance this season, so the difficult setup should be favorable to him. Hatton has surprisingly gone over two years without a win but does five top-5s on the PGA Tour this year.
Hideki Matsuyama (30-1)
Matsuyama was second in SG: Tee-to-Green at Olympia Fields in 2020, ultimately finishing two shots short of a playoff. He has certainly underachieved this year with only two top-10s, but with eight top-20s he's closer to winning that most realize. There's good value here.
BMW Championship Bets: Other Wagers
Collin Morikawa
Top-5 Finish: 5-1
Morikawa gets a lot of recognition for his excellent iron play, but I don't think his driving gets talked about enough. He's second in driving accuracy, and he's hardly short off the tee. He is trending in a positive direction with three top-15s over his last five starts.
Russell Henley
Top-5 Finish: 13-2
Speaking of golfers playing well, Henley continues to deliver. Over his last 12 events he finished outside the top 20 only three times, and he enters this tournament off back-to-back top-10s. A lack of distance is the only thing that can hold him back here.
Lee Hodges
Top-10 Finish: 7-1
Hodges is in 36th place in the FedExCup Standings and has a prime opportunity to qualify for his first TOUR Championship. His ball-striking -- he ranks 44 in SG: Off-the-Tee and 63rd in Approach -- makes him someone not to overlook.
BMW Championship Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Brian Harman (-110) over Corey Conners
Harman made his first appearance since winning the Claret Jug, posting a mediocre T31 in Memphis. Much like at Royal Liverpool, the tougher conditions this week should be more up his alley. Over his nine appearances in the BMW Championship, Harman's best finish came at Olympia Fields. Conners is coming off a top-10, but he finished only T33 here in 2020 and his iron play has been worse than usual.
Justin Rose (+100) over Jason Day
Day has shown signs of fatigue since winning the Byron Nelson in May, missing 3-of-6 cuts and recording only top-40 finish since. That inconsistency doesn't bode well in a one-on-one matchup. Rose was in much better form than Day last week, plus he has been more consistent, notching six top-25s over his last seven starts on this side of the pond.
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