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Farmers Insurance Open Betting Preview
It's a Wednesday start this week, so get your bets in on time!
The PGA Tour heads south to San Diego for this week's Farmers Insurance Open at renowned Torrey Pines. The field will rotate between the North and the South Course over the first two days, and those who make the cut will play the weekend at the South Course. Xander Schauffele, at 9-1 odds, is the betting favorite, and he headlines a field that includes eight of the top 20 players in the Official World Golf Ranking.
Last year, Max Homa -- at 22-1 -- outlasted Keegan Bradley by two strokes for his sixth PGA Tour victory.
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 4:30 PM ET Tuesday.
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Course Characteristics
North Course - Par 72, 7,258 yards
South Course - Par 72, 7,765 yards
Average Strokes Gained Rankings: Farmers Insurance Open Winners Since 2019
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 28.4
- SG: Approach: 10.8
- SG: Around-the-Green: 25.6
- SG: Putting: 11.2
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 7.2
- Driving Distance: 33.0
- Driving Accuracy: 30.8
Things may be a little different than usual this week, as San Diego is dealing with substantial rainfall from Monday's storm. Don't be surprised if lift, clean and place is utilized -- at least to start the tournament. The North Course -- roughly 500 yards shorter -- will be the easier of the two, and players will look to take advantage of four benign par-5s. The South Course is the longest venue the players will see all season, with only one par-4 under 430 yards. Off the tee, golfers are faced with narrow fairways that average less than 30 yards wide and thick rough to punish wayward drives. That's going to put more of an emphasis on accuracy than usual with how difficult the rough will play due to the rainfall. Players won't have many wedges in their hands and should expect a lot of approaches from 200 yards and beyond. We've seen a variety of styles succeed here despite the length of the course, so I'm targeting those who have a combination of length and accuracy off the tee as well as quality iron players. The winner ranked top-5 in SG: Approach four of the last five years.
On a Tear at Torrey Pines
The following golfers, with a minimum of eight rounds played, have the lowest scoring average at the Farmers Insurance Open over the last five years.
- Justin Rose: 69.4
- Sahith Theegala: 69.8
- Will Zalatoris: 69.8
- Jason Day: 69.8
- Max Homa: 69.9
2019 champion Rose has shown an affinity for Torrey Pines, with six top-20s over his last seven trips, including the 2021 U.S. Open that was also held at this course. He ranked top-5 in SG: Approach twice during that span. Rose is a long shot at 80-1 odds but should certainly be on your radar and as well as in DFS lineups. Another player that's had success here is Zalatoris, with a runner-up and T7 result before missing the cut last year. After missing over eight months with a back injury, he made his return in December. Despite some initial struggles, he finished T34 at The American Express last week and gained shots in every strokes gained category at the Stadium Course.
The Proper Approach
These five players, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes on approach over their last 20 rounds.
- Xander Schauffele: 1.03
- Collin Morikawa: 0.97
- Sepp Straka: 0.88
- Tom Hoge: 0.85
- Adam Schenk: 0.75
Fresh off finishing in a share for third in La Quinta,, San Diego native Schauffele tops the list. He has shown himself to be one of the best iron players in the world, ranking third in SG: Approach last season. Following missed cuts in his first three appearances at this event, he has played the weekend three straight times. He posted a T2 in 2021 and also finished T7 at the U.S. Open on this course. Much further down the betting board is Schenk at 100-1 odds. He finished top-50 in approach last season for the first time, and he's looking to build some momentum after posting a top-20 in the Farmers Insurance Open for the first time a year ago.
Farmers Insurance Open Bets: Outright Picks
Jason Day (25-1)
Day's track record at Torrey Pines is about as good as it gets – over 11 appearances since 2013, he has won twice and posted seven top-10s. There's no need to overthink Day at these odds, particularly with him posting a top-10 at Kapalua.
Eric Cole (35-1)
Bettors may shy away from Cole due to his missed cut here last year and/or because he's not the longest driver, but not me. The missed cut came before he emerged, and I can't pass him up outside the top 10 choices on the betting board in a non-Signature Event.
Harris English (45-1)
I'm probably going to be bullish on English this year and bet him frequently if his odds remain here. He began the year in solid form at The Sentry and followed it up with a top-10 at Waialae. He also has a runner-up result in this event to go a long with a third-place finish at the 2021 U.S. Open on this track.
Farmers Insurance Open Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Luke List (6-1)
Michael Kim came through with a top-10 at 12-1 for me last week, and I'll start this week off with the 2022 winner, who also had a top-10 here the year prior. List went through a rough patch following that win but has turned it around, notching a win in October and five top-25s across six starts in the fall.
Adam Svensson (15-2)
Svensson has quietly upped his play over the last several months, as you have to go all the way back to June to find a missed cut. He has five top-20s over that stretch, and his combination of driving accuracy -- he ranked 39th last season -- and iron play -- he finished 50th in SG: Approach -- should set him up for success this week.
Austin Eckroat (10-1)
Eckroat has missed the cut in both trips here, but the 25-year-old continues to improve in just his second season on Tour, posting three top-25s over his last four starts. He was in the positive in both SG: Off-the-Tee and Approach last season, and quality ball striking is imperative at Torrey Pines.
Farmers Insurance Open Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Patrick Rodgers (-110) over Christiaan Bezuidenhout
I'm riding a bit of a wave here having hit both matchup bets in two straight tournaments. Bezuidenhout is coming off a runner-up finish last week, which can be tough to follow up. These are also two very different courses than what was seen in Palm Springs, and Bezuidenhout is a short hitter. Rodgers has fared well here, posting a pair of top-10s.
Davis Thompson (-110) over Akshay Bhatia
Thompson had an inconsistent rookie season but started to play better as the campaign wore on, and he has now made eight straight cuts while notching four top-25s, which is the kind of consistency we're looking for in matchups. Meanwhile, Bhatia posted 10 top-25 finishes over the last year, but all but one came at a resort-style course or in an alternate-field event. I don't see Torrey Pines being a great fit for him.
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