This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
WGC-Cadillac Championship
Tournament Details
Purse: $9.5M
Winner's Share: $1,612,432
FedEx Cup Points: 550 to the Winner
Location: Miami, FL
Course: Trump National Doral (Blue Monster)
Yardage: 7,543
Par: 72
Defending Champion: Dustin Johnson
Tournament Preview
The World Golf Championships-Cadillac Championship marks the second stop of the Florida Swing where 48 of the world's top 50 golfers are present alongside other prominent names to create an elite 66-player field, the most star-studded of the new year. With no cut this week, everyone in the small field has four guaranteed rounds to hold on to for dear life. Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth and Jason Day will compete in the same tournament for the first time this year, along with Aussie Adam Scott, who is fresh off a win at last week's Honda Classic. In 2013, Gil Hanse completed a $200 million course upgrade of Trump National Doral, and it has lived up to its hype as a challenging course, ranking as the third hardest course in 2014 and seventh hardest in 2015. All said, this week represents a third-straight venue at which we'll see PGA professionals earn every penny of their lavish winnings by surviving a course laden with water on 14 of 18 holes.
Key Stats to winning at Doral:
- Total Driving (distance emphasis)
- Proximity to the Hole from 175 to 200 yards
- Scrambling Percentage
Past Champions
2015 — Dustin Johnson (redesigned layout)
2014 — Patrick Reed (redesigned layout)
2013 — Tiger Woods
2012 — Justin Rose
2011 — Nick Watney
2010 — Ernie Els
2009 — Phil Mickelson
2008 — Geoff Ogilvy
2007 — Tiger Woods
2006 — Tiger Woods (The Grove, Hertfordshire, England)
Champion's Profile:
Though Doral isn't new to the PGA Tour, there are only two years of history on the newly redesigned Blue Monster, so the main focus of research should be results from 2014 and 2015. The redesign has three par-4s over 470 yards and three of four par-3s over 200 yards—intimidating to say the least. Given the lengthy holes, the ability to hit it long off the tee is quite helpful to shorten approach shots into the green. Such a difficult course lends itself to lower GIR% for all players, making scrambling percentage a vital stat, especially for shorter than average drivers. Players who fit the long hitting, great short game mold are generally the highest-ranked players in the field, but players who are shorter can still get by with elite precision and scrambling.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Rory McIlroy - $12,000 (Winning Odds: 11%)
Adam Scott - $11,600 (8%)
Bubba Watson - $11,400 (8%)
Dustin Johnson - $11,200 (8%)
Jason Day - $11,100 (8%)
Rickie Fowler - $10,700 (7%)
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Justin Rose - $10,100 ( 4%)
J.B. Holmes - $9,400 ( 3%)
Brooks Koepka - $9,200 ( 3%)
Patrick Reed - $9,100 ( 3%)
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Charl Schwartzel - $8,500 ( 2%)
Branden Grace - $8,300 ( 2%)
Bill Haas - $7,900 ( 1%)
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Zach Johnson - $7,500 ( 1%)
Kevin Na - $7,100 ( 1%)
Kiradech Aphibarnrat - $6,200 ( <1%)
MY PICKS THIS WEEK
Lower-Risk Cash Game Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Henrik Stenson - $10,300
Patrick Reed - $9,100
Bill Haas - $7,900
Graeme McDowell - $7,900
Zach Johnson - $7,500
Kevin Na - $7,100
I'm latching on to course history in 2014 and 2015, good driving and elite short games in the safe lineup this week. Henrik Stenson leads off with a world class blend of driving and short game to go with a top-five in last year's WGC-Cadillac. Patrick Reed was the dominant champion in 2014 in the venue's first year post-redesign. Bill Haas has quietly notched a seventh and sixth place finish at Doral the last two seasons, showcasing his excellent driving and underrated short game. Graeme McDowell is fresh off a top-five last week and notched a top-10 at Doral in 2014. Finally, Zach Johnson and Kevin Na sport similar games of precision and unparalleled short game, which have added up to success at this track.
Higher-Risk Tournament Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Rory McIlroy - $12,000
Dustin Johnson - $11,200
Marcus Fraser - $6,300
Kiradech Aphibarnrat - $6,200
Anirban Lahiri - $6,200
Nathan Holman - $6,000
With a minuscule field of 66 and four guaranteed rounds this week, the challenge is differentiation and embracing the lower-risk format. Picking your top two or three and filling in with low cost options is not only encouraged but probably necessary to stand out in tournament games. Thus I'm going to war with Rory McIlroy and Dustin Johnson, the former a decent value after missing last week's cut, the latter a powerhouse at Doral with three career top-fives including last year's win. The remaining "scrubs" are still solid international players: Fraser, Aphibarnrat, Lahiri and Holman. The first three have experienced Doral at least once with little success, while newcomer Holman won the Australian PGA Championship in December and most recently notched a top-10 at the Maybank Championship Malaysia two weeks ago. With plenty of risk here I will need McIlroy or Johnson to take the trophy and at least three long-shots to surprise for top-10s.
