This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL
Tournament Details
Purse: $6.3M
Winner's Share: $1,134,000
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Orlando, FL
Course: Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Yardage: 7,419
Par: 72
Defending Champion: Matt Every
Tournament Preview
In what always feels like a short stay in the sunshine state, the Florida Swing quickly comes to a close this week with the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. Four of the world's top 10 tee it up this week: Rory McIlroy makes his second trip to Bay Hill, Adam Scott pursues three consecutive wins in three starts, Henrik Stenson seeks revenge after last year's back nine putting woes, and Justin Rose looks to continue his solid play. Much like last week's Valspar Championship, Bay Hill plays on the tougher side with four longer par-3s, but has manageable rough and scoring-friendly par-5s. The iconic kidney-shaped 18th green will draw plenty of crowds and anxiousness as the leaders nervously pick a club to carry the lurking pond en route to victory.
Key Stats to winning at Bay Hill:
- Par-5 Scoring
- GIR%
- Strokes Gained Putting
Past Champions
2015 - Matt Every
2014 - Matt Every
2013 - Tiger Woods
2012 - Tiger Woods
2011 - Martin Laird
2010 - Ernie Els
2009 - Tiger Woods
2008 - Tiger Woods
2007 - Vijay Singh
2006 - Rod Pampling
Champion's Profile:
What do Matt Every and Tiger Woods have in common? Not much you might gather, other than multiple handshakes between them as the king victoriously walks off 18. But a closer look into the numbers reveals approach shots and putting are keys to winning, those two phases representing more than 70 percent of the gain that winners have enjoyed over the field at Bay Hill. Obviously hitting it long helps in setting up easier approaches, but precision is critical when throwing darts at difficult flags. Once players find the quick greens it's easy to leave yourself long par putts, so cashing in on those short ones is important. All the par-5s are birdie holes, so the winner will likely outplay the field on these holes, something Tiger has done with dominance in his eight victories.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Rory McIlroy - $12,000 (Winning Odds: 15%)
Adam Scott - $11,700 ( 11%)
Henrik Stenson - $11,100 ( 8%)
Jason Day - $10,800 ( 7%)
Justin Rose - $10,500 ( 6%)
Hideki Matsuyama - $10,100 ( 4%)
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Kevin Na - $9,600 ( 3%)
Zach Johnson - $8,300 ( 2%)
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Jason Kokrak - $7,900 ( 2%)
Brendan Steele - $7,700 ( 2%)
David Lingmerth - $7,600 ( 1%)
Kevin Streelman - $7,400 ( 1%)
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Ian Poulter - $7,100 ( 1%)
Retief Goosen - $6,800 ( 1%)
Daniel Summerhays - $6,800 ( 1%)
MY PICKS THIS WEEK
Lower-Risk Cash Game Lineup($50K Salary Cap)
Henrik Stenson - $11,100
Zach Johnson - $8,300
Charles Howell III - $8,000
Jason Kokrak - $7,900
Brendan Steele - $7,700
George McNeill - $7,000
The goal of the safe lineup this week, more so than other weeks, is to ensure six players make the generous cut in a smaller field. Thus I have assembled a middle-tier lineup that starts with Henrik Stenson, who has finished in the Top 10 three straight times at Bay Hill. Zach Johnson holed one of two albatrosses in last year's record year at Bay Hill, and has plenty of iron control and putting prowess to play well again. Charles Howell is a cut-making machine at Bay Hill, making his last seven cuts. Jason Kokrak and Brendan Steele represent long-hitters who can hit more short irons around Bay Hill, and both have played well the last two years. Finally, George McNeill has made the cut a perfect 6-of-6 times at Bay Hill, so he should be plenty safe this week.
Higher-Risk Tournament Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Rory McIlroy - $12,000
Adam Scott - $11,700
Brendan Steele - $7,700
Retief Goosen - $6,800
Jhonattan Vegas - $6,000
Rory Sabbatini - $5,800
With around 120 players in the field and 70 and ties still making the cut, there's opportunity to take some risks with lower-tier options since a higher percentage of the field will make the cut. In a tournament lineup it's foolish to avoid Adam Scott who comes off two straight wins, and Rory McIlroy is the best player in the field. Brendan Steele finds himself in both my lineups due to his great value, while the veteran Retief Goosen has a solid record at Bay Hill outside of last year's missed cut. Rounding out the lineup are low-tier risks Vegas and Sabbatini, who can hit it above average and had a decent chance to make the cut given their rock-bottom prices.
