This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
HOUSTON OPEN
Tournament Details
Purse: $6.8M
Winner's Share: $1,224,000
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Humble, Tex.
Course: GC of Houston
Yardage: 7,441
Par: 72
Defending Champion: J.B. Holmes
Tournament Preview
With 89 players already holding invites for next week's Masters, the final ticket in can only be earned one way: by winning the Houston Open. Three of the last eight winners have pulled off that feat and earned a last-gasp invite to Augusta. Since landing the pre-Masters slot on the schedule in 2007, the Golf Club of Houston has sought to simulate Augusta National, with Stimps tipping the scales at 13 and features like shaved banks and collection areas seen throughout the course. The field includes five of the top 10 players in the world, including Jordan Spieth, Patrick Reed, Rickie Fowler, Henrik Stenson, and Dustin Johnson. Despite the Augusta-like setup, the golf course isn't considered difficult, yielding around 16-under the past few years.
Key Stats to winning at the GC of Houston:
• Driving Distance
• GIR%
• Strokes Gained Putting
Past Champions
2015 – J.B. Holmes
2014 – Matt Jones
2013 – D.A. Points
2012 – Hunter Mahan
2011 – Phil Mickelson
2010 – Anthony Kim
2009 – Paul Casey
2008 – Johnson Wagner
2007 – Adam Scott
2006 – Stuart Appleby
Champion's Profile:
Long par-5s, long par-3s, and speedy fairways and greens await players this week. Driving distance was a bigger factor last year because of rainy conditions; with better weather it will be slightly less beneficial but still important. The main benefit of hitting it long is having shorter clubs into the green, producing higher GIR percentage and closer proximity to the hole, which are the true keys at the GC of Houston. That said, the faster the greens get, the more players can separate themselves with great putting, so it's a somewhat puzzling profile that has produced a wide net of victors. With such a top-heavy field it's probably best to focus on the better players who are proven ball strikers and have a good chance to find a hot putter, but further down the list it may be beneficial to focus on players who have putted well recently.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Jordan Spieth - $12,900 (Winning Odds: 14%)
Rickie Fowler - $11,000 (8%)
Henrik Stenson - $10,800 ( 8%)
Dustin Johnson - $10,700 ( 7%)
Phil Mickelson - $10,500 ( 5%)
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Louis Oosthuizen - $10,200 ( 5%)
J.B. Holmes - $9,700 ( 4%)
Brooks Koepka - $9,300 ( 3%)
Jimmy Walker - $9,200 ( 2%)
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Keegan Bradley - $8,300 ( 2%)
Tony Finau - $8,100 ( 1%)
Kevin Chappell - $7,800 ( 2%)
Russell Henley - $7,000 ( 1%)
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Martin Laird - $6,600 ( 1%)
Seung-Yul Noh - $5,900 ( 1%)
Boo Weekley - $5,600 ( 1%)
MY PICKS THIS WEEK
Lower-Risk Cash Game Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Phil Mickelson - $10,500
J.B. Holmes - $9,700
Keegan Bradley - $8,300
Cameron Tringale - $8,000
Russell Henley - $7,000
John Senden - $6,400
Familiarity with the Augusta-like setup and/or course history play strongly into selecting the safe lineup this week. Mickelson has played great in the early going this season, and his training leading up to the Masters perennially sets him up for success. He's notched top-20s the past five years here, including a win in 2011. Holmes returns as defending champion but he's also posted three other top-15 efforts here, including a near-win in 2009. Keegan Bradley and Cameron Tringale are horses for this course, both achieving three top-10s at the Houston Open since 2012. Henley has put together top-10 efforts the last two years at this venue, making three of three career cuts. Rounding out the lineup is John Senden, whose recent form is pretty spotty, but his record at the GC of Houston shows seven of 10 made cuts, which isn't bad for a bargain price of $6,400.
Higher-Risk Tournament Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Jordan Spieth - $12,900
Henrik Stenson - $10,800
Dustin Johnson - $10,700
Geoff Ogilvy - $5,300
Carl Pettersson - $5,200
Scott Stallings - $5,100
Jordan Spieth lost in a playoff here last year, which led to a green jacket the following week; while this year is much different form-wise, Spieth may actually be a differentiator because of his lackluster recent play. Henrik Stenson holds one of the best course histories at GC of Houston with four of four made cuts and two top-three finishes. Dustin Johnson played well at last week's match play and notched a tie for fourth here in 2013, but has yet to secure his annual win that he has managed to pull off at least once every season since 2008. Geoff Ogilvy is a bargain at $5,300 in part because of his T2 and T6 finishes in 2008 and 2009, but he's a risk because he's missed the last three cuts here. Lastly, Pettersson nearly won the Houston in 2012, taking second, and Scott Stallings was the best player left with the remaining salary of $5,100.
