This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
TEXAS OPEN
Purse: $6.2M
Winner's Share: $1,116,000
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: San Antonio, Texas
Course: The Oaks Course, TPC San Antonio
Yardage: 7,435
Par: 72
2015 champion: Jimmy Walker
Tournament Preview
The Texas Open has been played since 1922, making it the longest continuous tournament in the same city, the third oldest PGA Tour Tournament and the sixth-oldest professional event worldwide. The Oaks Course has been in play only since 2010, so any player history before that is of no value. Even last year's numbers are an outlier, as the wind was so fierce, nine of the top-10 finishers began the week with the morning/afternoon tee times; the exception with afternoon/morning was Dustin Johnson. That resulted in the course playing the second toughest on tour in 2014-15, behind only the U.S. Open at Chambers Bay, according to PGATour.com. In past years, the tournament was played prior to the Masters. At least for this year, it's after, and that is reflected in the field. None of the top 12 in the world will play, just nine of the top 30. Patrick Reed at No. 13, Brandt Snedeker (No. 16), Zach Johnson (No. 17), Phil Mickelson (No. 19) and defending champion Jimmy Walker (No. 26) are big names. But overall, it surely will be one of the weakest fields all year on the PGA Tour. The course is long – there are two 600-yard-plus holes – and there's also plenty of trouble off the tee (think: oak trees). So while distance is important, accuracy is, too. The final two holes could create some wild swings. The 17th is a drivable par-4 at 347 yards, offering plenty of risk/reward. The 18th is a nearly 600-yard uphill brute of a par-5. There are large and cavernous bunkers throughout the course, two of them enormous at 8,000 square feet, one on the par-5, 602-yard second hole; the other on the par-3, 207-yard seventh. Any time in Texas, wind could be a factor, but it's not forecast to be anywhere near as strong as last year. Instead, rain is in the forecast for Thursday and perhaps Sunday.
Key Stats to Winning at TPC San Antonio
• Total driving (distance + accuracy)
• Greens in regulation
• Scrambling/sand play
• Strokes gained-putting
Past Champions
2015 - Jimmy Walker
2014 - Steven Bowditch
2013 - Martin Laird
2012 - Ben Curtis
2011 - Brendan Steele
2010 - Adam Scott
Champion's Profile:
Walker, Laird, Steele and Scott all are currently among the longest hitters on tour. Last year, Walker finished fourth in driving distance, 45th in accuracy, first in greens in regulation and 27th in scrambling. He also was first in strokes gained-putting. Distance and accuracy off the tee surely are a big part of the champion's profile, because the course is super long, but not at the expense of a short game. There are enough big and difficult bunkers to mandate strong short-game skills, including putting, as golfers scramble to get up and down.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Jimmy Walker - $11,200 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 15-1)
Zach Johnson - $10,800 (20-1)
Brooks Koepka - $10,400 (20-1)
Matt Kuchar - $10,700 (20-1)
Patrick Reed - $10,800 (20-1)
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Bryson DeChambeau - $9,800 (25-1)
Charley Hoffman - $9,600 (25-1)
Billy Horschel - $9,400 (30-1)
Jason Kokrak - $9,300 (40-1)
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Brendan Steele - $8,800 (50-1)
Daniel Summerhays - $8,300 (50-1)
K.J. Choi - $7,800 (80-1)
Hunter Mahan - $7,100 (100-1)
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Jerry Kelly - $7,000 (100-1)
Cameron Tringale - $7,000 (100-1)
Will MacKenzie - $6,800 (Field, 7-4)
Andrew Loupe - $6,500 (Field, 7-4)
MY PICKS THIS WEEK
Lower-Risk Cash Game Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Charley Hoffman - $9,600
Billy Horschel - $9,400
Brendan Steele - $8,800
Freddie Jacobson - $8,100
Hunter Mahan - $7,100
Jerry Kelly - $7,000
The are a whopping 60 golfers valued at under $6,000 and, while some invariably will make the cut, good luck identifying them. To avoid playing any of them, we have to start low at the top. Hoffman is not among the top-10 dollar values but he should be. He's finished in the top-15 all six years the Oaks Course has been played, with a runner-up and a third. We were high on Horschel last week and continue to be; he finished third two of the past three years. Steele was the 2011 champion, with a couple of other top-10s. At this point, even with no high-priced golfers, it gets tricky to fill out the lineup. Jacobson of course is a terrific putter and had five straight top-20s here before last year's wind-induced aberration. Recently, Mahan hasn't played very well anywhere, even courses he plays regularly. He's never played the Oaks, so we're using a bit of reverse psychology as we go out on a limb. Lastly, Kelly still makes a lot of cuts and finished sixth here two years ago. This lineup offers a good chance to go 6-for-6 in cuts, with a possibility to secure the winner, too.
Higher-Risk Tournament Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Jimmy Walker - $11,200
Brooks Koepka - $10,400
Charley Hoffman - $9,600
Matt Jones - $6,600
Andrew Loupe - $6,500
Robert Garrigus - $5,700
This is a super-high-risk lineup. Going with Walker, a Texan and the defending champion, plus Koepka, one of the longest hitters who placed 36th in his lone prior Texas Open in 2014, provides two solid victory chances. But we will pay for it in a minute. Hoffman is so good at the Oaks we still like him here. Now, it gets very dicey, with less than $19,000 to fill out the lineup. We are loading up on big hitters and hoping they can hit it straight enough to get on the green in a timely fashion. Jones was 26th last year. More impressively, Loupe was fourth two years ago. With a scant $5,700 left, we put it all on Garrigus, a bomber who has made only four of eight cuts this season.
