This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
THE PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP
Purse: $10.5M
Winner's Share: $1.89M
FedEx Cup Points: 600 to the Winner
Location: Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.
Course: TPC Sawgrass, Stadium Course
Yardage: 7,215
Par: 72
2015 champion: Rickie Fowler
Tournament Preview
Nearly all of the top 50 golfers in the world rankings will be on hand for the unofficial fifth major. TPC Sawgrass features what very likely is the most famous single hole in all of golf, the tiny par-3, 137-yard 17th with the island green. Rickie Fowler birdied the hole three out of four rounds and twice in a playoff en route to a stirring win last year over Sergio Garcia and Kevin Kisner. Fowler played the final four holes of regulation in 11 emdash; that's 3-3-2-3 emdash; to advance to the three-hole playoff, which then went to sudden death, and Fowler won on the first hole by again birdieing 17 to eliminate Kisner. Golfers have no time to catch their breath after 17. The 18th is treacherous, a long par-4 laced with water down the entire left side. In true Florida fashion, 14 Sawgrass holes feature water. On top of that, the greens are tiny and very fast, at 12.5 on the stimpmeter, Fowler won at 12-under, and the winning score has fallen between 12- and 16-under every year since 2009. No one has won back-to-back titles in the 32-year-old tournament, first won by Jack Nicklaus in 1974. The rewards of victory are enormous, with the winner getting a five-year Tour exemption and three-year exemptions into the Masters, U.S. Open and Open Championship, plus a spot in this year's PGA Championship. No winner has so much as finished in the top-10 the following year since 2004 champ Adam Scott was eighth in 2005. Weather wise, temperatures will be extremely warm, in the mid-80s all four days, with a slight chance of rain on Friday and Saturday. Wind, at least typical hard-by-the-Atlantic-Ocean wind, is not forecast this year.
Key Stats to Winning at TPC Sawgrass
• Ball striking
• Greens in regulation
• Scrambling
• Putting average
Past Champions
2015 - Rickie Fowler
2014 - Martin Kaymer
2013 - Tiger Woods
2012 - Matt Kuchar
2011 - K.J. Choi
2010 - Tim Clark
2009 - Henrik Stenson
2008 - Sergio Garcia
2007 - Phil Mickelson
2006 - Stephen Ames
Champion's Profile:
You need an all-around game to win this tournament. Big hitters generally don't fare well at Sawgrass. Dustin Johnson has never finished in the top-30, and Bubba Watson has never cracked the top-35. Going back almost a quarter century, no winner has averaged 300 yards off the tee. Yes, Fowler can drive the ball far, but he took his foot off the gas a bit and was 11th in distance at just over 295 yards. He didn't win in conventional fashion, as he wasn't especially accurate, finding the fairway 62.5 percent of the time, tying for 43rd. From there, he really gambled, and his biggest advantage came on approach shots. He tied for third in proximity to the hole and was 10th in scrambling. At 20th in strokes gained: putting, you'd think the winner would've had to have done better. Fowler was extraordinary in SGP in the final round, first at 4.0, most of it his torrid closing stretch. Going back to 2010, winners haven't been among the driving distance leaders but have been fairly accurate. Greens in regulation, scrambling and putting average have been paramount.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Rory McIlroy - $11,700 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 8-1)
Jordan Spieth - $11,400 (10-1)
Jason Day -- $11,100 (10-1)
Rickie Fowler - $10,600 (15-1)
Sergio Garcia - $9,900 (25-1)
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Hideki Matsuyama - $9,700 (25-1)
Henrik Stenson - $9,500 (25-1)
Phil Mickelson - $9,100 (30-1)
Zach Johnson - $8,300 (50-1)
Billy Horschel - $8,200 (50-1)
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Chris Kirk - $7,800 (60-1)
Kevin Na - $7,800 (60-1)
Kevin Chappell - $7,400 (80-1)
Marc Leishman - $7,200 (80-1)
Justin Thomas - $7,200 (80-1)
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Luke Donald - $6,900 (100-1)
Ian Poulter - $6,500 (Field, 7-2)
Kiradech Aphibarnrat - $6,500 (Field, 7-2)
Harold Varner III - $6,400 (Field, 7-2)
Freddie Jacobson - $6,100 (Field, 7-2)
MY PICKS THIS WEEK
Lower-Risk Cash Game Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Rickie Fowler - $10,600
Hideki Matsuyama - $9,700
Billy Horschel -- $8,200
Kevin Na - $7,800
Marc Leishman - $7,300
William McGirt - $6,400
Our top two guys should be popular picks. Fowler will have to play better this year emdash; last year, he went on that surreal closing run to come from way back, and that can't be counted on again. But he surely fits the champion's profile as a great ball striker (fourth on tour), plus he's fifth in GIR, 19th in scrambling and 30th in putting average. Do I expect Fowler to repeat? Not the way he's been playing of late. Do I expect him to be in the mix and have DFS value? Yes. Matsuyama's game really is suited for any course, and he has two top-25s here in two trips. Horschel has improved each of the past three years, from MC to 26th to 13th. Na has played well at Sawgrass, tying for sixth last year, with two other top-10s. Leishman is a strong ball striker, scrambler and putter. With $6,400 left, we like McGirt best at this price point, pretty decent in all relevant stats.
Higher-Risk Tournament Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Adam Scott - $10,000
Sergio Garcia - $9,900
Henrik Stenson - $9,500
Kevin Kisner - $7,700
Russell Henley - $7,100
Bernhard Langer - $5,800
There's high risk, and there's crazy. We're not sure which this is. We agonized over Scott. Do we think he'll win? No. Do we think he'll contend? We're not sure. But that's why he goes in the high-risk lineup. We really tried to come up with a way to separate from the pack. We don't expect high ownership for Scott, and if he plays well, this risk/reward pick will be very rewarding. Garcia has a fantastic track record at this course, but picking the Spaniard always comes with an element of risk. Stenson also has a good course history. By picking three golfers at $9,500-plus, we haven't left much wiggle room. Based on last year's finish, Kisner is a safe pick. Based on everything else, particularly the past few months, Kisner is very dicey. Henley also has been playing poorly of late, but still is great putter and a good scrambler, and he has top-25s at Sawgrass the past two years. With a measly $5,800 left, we find encouragement, barely, in Langer's recent Masters play. But he missed the Players cut last year in his first visit in seven years. This lineup should come with a child-proof cap.
