This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
BMW CHAMPIONSHIP
Purse: $9.5M
Winner's Share: $1.71M
FedEx Cup Points: 1,500 to the winner (normally 2,000 but reduced in relation to the pandemic-shortened season)
Location: Olympia Fields, Ill.
Course: Olympia Fields Country Club (North)
Yardage: 7,366
Par: 70
2019 champion: Justin Thomas (Medinah Country Club)
Tournament Preview
We're down to 70 players still standing in the 2019-20 PGA Tour season. For many of the game's superstars, it means little. For many others, it means everything -- with the chance for so much more if they somehow can find their way into the top-30 come Sunday night. The BMW Championship will decide who gets to go to the Tour Championship, which in and of itself is a big deal but one that also comes with fantastic perks. Not only are those 30 golfers guaranteed a large check, but also entry into next year's Masters, both Opens, THE PLAYERS, two WGCs and the five invitationals (Bay Hill, Memorial, Harbour Town, Colonial and Riviera). And, for this year only, also the Sentry Tournament of Champions, which will be hurting for golfers after this pandemic-shortened season. That means another great check, not to mention a Hawaiian vacation.
So this week has the potential to alter not only bank accounts, but lives and careers.
Last year, three golfers were able to move into the top-30 at the BMW -- Hideki Matsuyama, Lucas Glover and Jason Kokrak. The year before it was only two, breaking a three-year run of four golfers advancing. So the odds are long for Tiger Woods, who stands in 57th place.
Before we get to the golfers, lets take a look at Olympia Fields, a storied 105-year-old American golf club but one that doesn't offer us much course history. The North course finds itself on most U.S. top-100 lists, sometimes even top-50. It was designed in 1923 by two-time Open Championship winner Willie Park Jr. and has undergone only minimal changes through the years -- mostly lengthening. It has played host to two PGA Championships and two U.S. Opens, plus five Western Opens. None of those has taken place even remotely recently -- the 2003 Open won by Jim Furyk is the only one even close -- but they did play the U.S. Amateur there only five years ago. And there are a few guys from that field who are in this one, too, beginning with the 2015 U.S. Am champ, Bryson DeChambeau. Others who were entered and made their way to varying points in the stroke- and match-play tournament were Jon Rahm (quarterfinalist), Collin Morikawa, Scottie Scheffler, Maverick McNealy and Robby Shelton (Round of 16). There's also an annual college tournament that takes place at Olympia Fields, the Fighting Illini Invitational. Matthew Wolff and Cameron Champ have won it, and others such as Rahm, Morikawa, Scheffler and Viktor Hovland have been in it within the past five years. Shelton, a surprise entrant at the BMW, won that tournament in 2013. And for what it's worth, four golfers here were in the 2003 Open: Woods, Adam Scott, Paul Casey and Charles Howell III.
The golfers will begin their rounds with one of the two par-5s, both of which are 600-yarders, and it's the longest hole on the course at 626 yards. Then come two of the seven par-4s that exceed 450 yards. So it starts very long and before they make the turn they'll also encounter the mammoth 251-yard eighth hole. The course closes with a 510-yarder that features water on the approach. Olympia Fields is long but pretty straightforward, with elevation changes, many fairway bunkers, hundreds of oak trees and Butterfield Creek, which meanders its way through the property and crosses seven holes, including Nos. 12 and 14 twice each.
Here are a couple of quotes from unnamed panelists who determined a Top 100 ranking for Golf Digest:
• "Olympia Fields boasts several stretches of holes that are relentlessly demanding. Most drives are challenged by fairway bunkers, water hazards or strategically placed trees. If played from the wrong angles, bogeys aplenty."
• "A beast of a course that requires thought and commitment on every shot, especially right out of the gates on holes 1 through 4."
That's important information, but so is this from longstanding Director of Grounds Sam MacKenzie: "The putting greens will defend this golf course," MacKenzie told NBC 5 in Chicago last week. "These players can just hit it out of sight and so forth like that. So the emphasis on the greens, which has always been a strong point of any golf course, will have to take on an even greater proportion than before." The bluegrass greens (a form of poa annua) are small to average size, averaging 5,000 square feet. MacKenzie makes it sounds as if they will be rolling fast.
One more thing about Olympia Fields: In all our research, we repeatedly came across mentions of the ginormous clubhouse, some 110,000 square feet that is said to be the largest clubhouse in the world (some have pegged it at 200,000 square feet). It features an 80-foot clock tower, large enough for even Rory McIlroy to see the time from wherever he is staying this week.
Okay, now on to the field. First off, remember that there is no cut. All the big names are here, save Brooks Koepka, though truth be told, Koepka wasn't a very big name this year. When there are so many studs at the top, it's hard to whittle them down. Dustin Johnson, Rahm, Justin Thomas, Bryson DeChambeau, Rory McIlroy and Webb Simpson are all five figures, and Xander Schauffele and Daniel Berger just miss. We will be picking only three from Tier 1 because of the small field. Olympia Fields will be nothing like we saw last week -- but it could be like what we saw three weeks ago at Harding Park. Olympia Fields will be hard. Golfodds.com puts the over/under on the winning score at 269.5 -- 10.5 under par. So we will look to recent form at Harding Park, TPC Southwind and even Muirfield Village -- three tough tracks -- to see who played well there. Long hitters, good ball strikers.
Weather-wise, it will be hot on Thursday, over 90. But then some thunderstorms are expected to move in on Friday -- nothing major -- causing a cool down that will leave temperatures in the 70s on the weekend. No more rain is forecast, and winds should be moderate. With such a small field, the tee times are not very spread out, so that should not impact your lineup decisions.
Fun BMW Championship factoid: BMW came on board as the title sponsor when the FedEx Cup playoffs began in 2007, extending the remarkable run of the Western Open. Having started in 1899, it is the third oldest golf tournament in the world, behind the Open Championship (1860) and U.S. Open (1895). This is the 117th edition of the storied event.
Fun Olympia Fields factoid: The course record is 63, and it's held by both Vijay Singh and Rickie Fowler. Singh did it in the second round of the 2003 Open, but when did Fowler even play this track? Well, it was during his first victory as an Oklahoma State Cowboy, in only his second college start, in the 2007 Fighting Illini Invitational.
Key Stats to winning at Olympia Fields
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Greens in Regulation/Strokes Gained: Approach
• Ball Striking/Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
• Putting Average/Strokes Gained: Putting
• Par-4 Efficiency 450-500 yards
Past Champions
2019 - Justin Thomas (Medinah)
2018 - Keegan Bradley (Aronimink)
2017 - Marc Leishman (Conway Farms)
2016 - Dustin Johnson (Crooked Stick)
2015 - Jason Day (Conway Farms)
2014 - Billy Horschel (Cherry Hills)
2013 - Zach Johnson (Conway Farms)
2012 - Rory McIlroy (Crooked Stick)
2011 - Justin Rose (Cog Hill)
2010 - Dustin Johnson (Cog Hill)
Champion's Profile
The first thing that jumps out is the frequency that elite golfers -- apologies to Bradley and Horschel -- have won this event over the past decade. There's always a way for a shorter hitter to do well on a long track, but we won't go that route this week, at least when trying to determine a winner. Besides, Jordan Spieth isn't here (and he's no longer Jordan Spieth anyway). When there is limited information, go with the tried and true: fairways and greens. As mentioned above, we expect the champion to come from 1) the top echelon of golfers, 2) those who played well at the summer's toughest tracks and 3) long hitters/quality ball strikers.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Dustin Johnson - $11,500 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 9-1)
This may have been the toughest call, right here at the very top. Johnson absolutely tore up TPC Boston, which is about as far from Olympia Fields as Boston is from Chicago. But he also was outstanding at the PGA Championship (co-runner-up) and the WGC event in Memphis (T12). Aside from those three out-of-no-where rounds of 80-80-78 last month, this has been a great summer for DJ, who won the Travelers Championship right before that puzzling stretch.
Justin Thomas - $10,800 (12-1)
Thomas didn't have a great PGA Championship, finishing T37, but it came one week after he won at TPC Southwind to claim his third victory this season. He's been the best golfer all year, as well as the best tee-to-green player.
Xander Schauffele - $9,900 (16-1)
Schauffele tied for 13th at the Memorial, sixth at the WGC and 10th at the PGA. He's right there in the biggest tournaments at the hardest tracks time after time. He's ranked seventh in SG: Off-the-Tee, fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green and third in ball striking. He would be a great pick in one-and-done leagues if you can still choose him.
Tier 2 Values
Collin Morikawa - $9,500 (20-1)
We seem to recall him playing fairly well at Harding Park. Morikawa of course won the PGA and he also won at Muirfield Village, albeit at the easier-than-Memorial Workday. Morikawa had a little more Harding Park knowledge than the rest of the PGA field because of his days at Cal. Likewise, he is more familiar with Olympia Fields than most of the other guys. It was very hard for us to skip Daniel Berger ($9,700), who checks off all our boxes, but we simply had to leave some guys out.
Tony Finau - $8,700 (35-1)
Pretty long odds and a relatively low price for Finau. Winning will always be a challenge for him, especially if the greens run as fast as hinted above. But he was eighth at the Memorial and fourth at the PGA. And this has been a better putting year for Finau, who is ranked among the top 100. Again, it was very hard to bypass another player -- Scottie Scheffler ($9,000) -- who, like Berger, checks all the boxes.
Harris English - $8,300 (35-1)
English has ripped off six top-25s in a row, with the best being last week's runner-up at The Northern Trust. No matter the style of course, English has been delivering. He's ranked in the top 40 in every SG category.
Tier 3 Values
Matthew Fitzpatrick - $7,900 (60-1)
Fitzpatrick missed the cut at both the PGA and The Northern Trust, and that will make many gamers look the other way. But he tied for third at the Memorial and for sixth at the latest WGC event. With Fitzpatrick being a Northwestern alum, we're going to guess he's played Olympia Fields a time or three. He's ranked second on Tour in SG: Putting.
Cameron Champ - $7,500 (80-1)
Champ is the second longest driver on Tour and is ranked second in SG: Off-the-Tee. He is 25th in the standings, so he's looking pretty safe for the Tour Championship -- but he's not there yet. Champ finished top-25 at TPC Southwind and tied for 10th at Harding Park, where a couple bad shots on Sunday cost him a much higher finish. And as mentioned earlier, he's a recent winner of the annual Illini event at Olympia Fields.
Kevin Na - $7,300 (125-1)
Things got a little dicey for us in the lower $7,000s. No one really caught our eye, but since we have to pick at least one, we turn to Na. He's had an up-and-down stretch since the restart, but he has as much upside as anyone in this section of the DraftKings board. Na was ninth at the Memorial and 35th at the WGC before missing the cut at the PGA. He's ranked 21st on Tour par-4 450-500.
Long-Shot Values
Brendan Steele - $6,600 (150-1)
Steele is ranked 29th on Tour in ball striking and is our favorite pick among these long shots. He had top-25s at both the Memorial and the PGA (he didn't qualify for the WGC). Steele is even putting far better than usual. He's ranked 76th in SG: Putting after being outside the top-175 the two previous seasons.
Joel Dahmen - $6,500 (150-1)
At 41st in the standings, Dahmen has an outside shot to get to East Lake. He has top-25s in 10 of his 21 starts this year, including at TPC Soutwind (T20) and Harding Park (T10). The PGA was his fifth top-10 of the season. Dahmen is ranked 25th on Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee and 32nd in SG: Tee-to-Green.
Dylan Frittelli - $6,500 (200-1)
Frittelli has enjoyed a good summer, including a top-25 at the Memorial and a top-35 at the PGA. He also finished top-20 at both the 3M and the Wyndham. Frittelli is 59th in points, so his season almost surely will end this week, but there's still time to get one more good result out of him.
