This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
DELL TECHNOLOGIES CHAMPIONSHIP
Purse: $8.75M
Winner's Share: $1.575M
FedEx Cup Points: 2,000 to the Winner
Location: Norton, Mass.
Course: TPC Boston
Yardage: 7,342
Par: 71
2016 champion: Rory McIlroy
Tournament Preview
After the first FedEx Cup playoff event was contested at a course unfamiliar to golfers and gamers alike, we now move on to the very familiar TPC Boston, where the tournament formerly known as the Deutsche Bank Championship has been played every year since 2003. While the playoff events in New York (last week) and Chicago (in two weeks) rotate courses, TPC Boston is a constant, and it's considered the easiest track the golfers will see during the playoffs. Maybe that's why this week offers at least a chance to interrupt the sheer chalk that's been winning every playoff event the past two years. The hardest courses generally define the best golfers; the easier ones oftentimes bring lesser golfers into the equation. That said, four of the past five winners here have been, what else, chalk: Rory McIlroy (twice), Rickie Fowler and Henrik Stenson.
From a fantasy standpoint, it's just about the easiest week to hit 6-for-6 in DFS play. The field is limited to a Masters-like 96, but unlike at Augusta, the top 70 and ties will make it to the weekend, with no MDF. The field could have been 100, but on Monday, Stenson pulled out to join Brandt Snedeker, J.B. Holmes and Scott Piercy on the sidelines. After this week, no one has to worry about a cut. The playoff field will trim to 70 golfers for the BMW Championship, then the top 30 will qualify for the season-ending Tour Championship.
In looking at the past few years at TPC Boston, it's perplexingly hard to get a handle on what the key stats are, and what makes up the Champion's Profile, but we'll tackle that down below. One thing we know for sure is that this tournament will be a birdie-fest. The worst winning score of the past decade is 15-under, and coincidentally that's been the score the past three years by McIlroy, Fowler and Chris Kirk. But two other times the winning score was a whopping 22-under, most recently by Stenson in 2013. The course is not especially long for a par-71. Although the winner last year, McIlroy, led the field in driving distance, shorter hitters have done okay here. But the biggest hitters naturally do have an advantage and they will be fearless attacking some of very wide fairways. There are three par-5s, two of them under 550 yards. That would be Nos. 2 and 18, allowing for a possible tournament-deciding eagle at the end.
Weather-wise, the forecast called for no rain the first two days but a 60 percent chance for the third round. Temperatures will generally be in the 70s with light to moderate wind.
Key Stats to Winning at TPC Boston (in order of importance)
• Putting average/strokes gained putting
• Scrambling/strokes gained around the green
• Greens in regulation/strokes gained approach
• Driving distance
Past Champions
2016 - Rory McIlroy
2015 - Rickie Fowler
2014 - Chris Kirk
2013 - Henrik Stenson
2012 - Rory McIlroy
2011 - Webb Simpson
2010 - Charley Hoffman
2009 - Steve Stricker
2008 - Vijay Singh
2007 - Phil Mickelson
Champion's Profile
Of the past five years, Rory McIlroy led the field in driving distance in both of his wins. But the other three champs were not in the top-25 in distance off the tee. Clearly, there's more than one way to win this tournament. The one stat that runs through all five of the champs is putting average -- four of them were top-10 in the field and Chris Kirk was 15th. As for scrambling, take out McIlroy's T41 last year and the previous five champs each finished in the top-6 in the field. At this point, longtime readers might be wondering: Where's greens in regulation? And that's a good question. Some of the recent winners have finished well back in the pack in GIR: Kirk was 50th, McIlroy (2012) and Webb Simpson were 35th and McIlroy last year was 18th. They made up for it with some combination of proximity/scrambling/putting. Still, you rarely can go wrong with a golfer who gets the ball on the green in regulation.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
Tier 1 Values
Jordan Spieth - $12,100 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 8-1)
It's more than a little surprising that Spieth is worth more than Dustin Johnson, even though it's only $100. Johnson not only beat Spieth on Sunday at The Northern Trust, he's got a better course history at TPC Boston. Spieth tied for fourth in his debut in 2013, but he hasn't had a top-20 since, even missing the cut two years ago (as mentioned above, it's really hard to miss the cut here. But despite his Sunday fade, Spieth's been playing great for two months. And in any tournament in which putting matters a lot, sign us up for some Spieth.
Dustin Johnson - $12,000 (7-1)
The oddsmakers favor Johnson over Spieth, albeit just slightly. The top-ranked golfer in the world showed on Sunday he is finally healed from his tumble down the stairs on Masters eve. Johnson's track record here is hot and cold: three top-10s, including T8 last year, but his four other visits have ended outside the top-25.
Hideki Matsuyama - $10,100 (12-1)
All it took for DraftKings to fall out of love with Matsuyama was one blown 4-footer for par on No. 18 on Friday resulting in a missed cut. Four golfers, including Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas, are priced higher. But the oddsmakers still have the Japanese star as the No. 3 choice behind Johnson and Spieth. Matsuyama has improved in each of his three trips to Boston, from T57 in 2014 to T25 in 2015 to T15 last year.
Jason Day - $9,500 (15-1)
For all of Day's poor play this season, he'd be in the Tour Championship if it started today, at No. 29 in the point standings. Day has doubled his top-10 total for the season in his past two starts: T9 at the PGA Championship and T6 last week at Glen Oaks. Those are his first consecutive top-10s since doing it more than a year ago at the PGA Championship and the Barclays. Day's course history at TPC Boston is stellar, with top-15s in six of the past seven years.
Tier 2 Values
Louis Oosthuizen - $9,100 (30-1)
The South African has been slotted by DraftKings in surprisingly lofty territory as the No. 9 golfer in the field. But Oosthuizen certainly has delivered in three career visits to TPC Boston: runner-up to Rory McIlroy in 2012, T12 in 2015 and T8 last year. And after meandering through this season, Oosthuizen tied for 10th last week at The Northern Trust on the heels of a runner-up to Thomas at the PGA Championship.
Paul Casey - $8,900 (20-1)
We certainly expected to see Casey cost more than Oosthuizen, but either way we are quite comfortable with both golfers. Casey just keeps on keeping on -- he registered his seventh top-10 of the season last week, tying for fifth at Glen Oaks. That was his third T5 in his past five starts. Oh, did we mention he was runner-up to McIlroy here last year?
Kevin Chappell - $8,600 (40-1)
Chappell certainly has many reasons to perform well this week, including a final try to qualify for the U.S. Presidents Cup team. Chappell sits in 11th place on points, and the top-10 are automatically on the team. Still, there's a decent chance Chappell could be one of Steve Stricker's captains picks. He tied for sixth last week at The Northern Trust, his second top-10 in the past month. Chappell tied for eighth last year at TPC Boston and was T12 the year before that.
Patrick Reed - $8,500 (25-1)
Reed is playing his best golf of the season, riding a stretch of six top-20s in his past eight PGA Tour starts. That has elevated him to 33rd in the FedEx Cup point standings, and you have to figure that Reed will find his way to East Lake. A good finish this week could secure that, and history suggests it could happen. Reed has notched top-5s the past two years at TPC Boston.
Tier 3 Values
Charley Hoffman - $8,300 (40-1)
Hoffman was a surprise winner here in 2010, well outside the top-100 in the world at the time. He's far more accomplished now, of course, at No. 22 in the OWGR. Hoffman rallied for a T17 last week in New York to give him a fourth top-20 in his past five starts. Hoffman has missed the cut here two of the past three years -- again, not easy to do! -- but sandwiched in between was a T3. He currently is 10th in the President Cup standings, and needs to hold that spot to automatically qualify.
Webb Simpson - $8,200 (40-1)
Simpson sits 16th in the FedEx Cup points race, a lock for East Lake. Imagine if the man could putt? Simpson is coming off a T6 last week at Glen Oaks, and was T3 the week before at the Wyndham. He doesn't have the greatest course history at TPC Boston -- except, of course, for that win back in 2011. He actually has another top-10 and a top-20, but missed the cut last year. Besides being great tee to green (15th in SGT2G), Simpson is also second in scrambling. And right now he's not as bad a putter as many think, ranked a middle-of-the-road 104th in strokes gained putting.
Adam Scott - $7,900 (30-1)
Adam Scott is near the bottom of Tier 3? Sign us up. The oddsmakers view Scott much more favorably than the DK folks, and we like that. It has not been the best year for Scott, now down to 18th in the OWGR, though he hasn't played all that much. He has some top-10s in big events this season (Masters, Players) and has a long history of success at TPC Boston. Scott was T4 last year, his fourth top-10 there through the years. Statistically, he's still a solid option, ranking 25th in strokes gained tee to green and 25th in approach. Again, this guy is under $8K.
Patrick Cantlay - $7,200 (50-1)
Cantlay surely has become the Flavor of the Month for August, and we'll see how he does as the calendar flips to September this week. The rookie has never played TPC Boston, but you could say that about a number of courses he's fared well at this season. Cantlay tied for 10th last week at Glen Oaks, extending his perfect season to 10-for-10 in cuts made. Cantlay still hasn't played enough rounds to qualify among the statistical leaders, but he'd sit 14th in strokes gained tee to green, 20th in GIR and 51st in strokes gained putting (right in between Johnson and Rahm).
Long-Shot Values
Jhonattan Vegas - $7,000 (100-1)
You pick Vegas, you stay with Vegas. Or something like that. It's well documented by now that Vegas revitalized a dreadful season with an out-of-nowhere win in Canada in late July. He then added a T17 at the Bridgestone and a T3 last week and now is a lock for the Tour Championship. This run won't continue forever, but we usually like to ride streaks as opposed to forecasting their end. Vegas was a not-too-shabby T33 last year at TPC Boston.
Chris Kirk - $6,800 (200-1)
It's always hard for us to pull the trigger on Kirk because half the time he looks completely disinterested out there. Or maybe he's just super cool? Probably not, because he's missed 11 of 27 cuts this season. But Kirk is a former (and recent) winner at TPC Boston. In his five other trips, he hasn't had another top-10, but he's also never finished worse than 35th. Kirk isn't playing all that great coming in, but he wasn't before his win in 2014 either.
Harold Varner - $6,800 (150-1)
The clock will strike midnight at some point for Varner. That likely will come this week. But that doesn't mean he's a bad play, only that it's really hard to jump from 91st into the top-70. Like with Vegas, Varner turned a corner in Canada, where he tied for 23rd. He then notched a T10 at the Wyndham and, last week in an elite field, a T20 at Glen Oaks. For someone far down in fairway accuracy off the tee, Varner is an impressive 30th in GIR. With wide fairways at TPC Boston, we envision even better numbers.
Chad Campbell - $6,700 (200-1)
We've been riding the Campbell train much of the season and now he sits at the very bottom of the DK board. So this is a no-brainer for us. Campbell hasn't gotten this far in the playoffs too often, but he was T21 here last year. Another finish like that and there's a good chance he'll move on to the BMW (Campbell sits 76th in points). He's 13th in GIR, 22nd in strokes gained approach. Oh, and he's fourth in scrambling.
