This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
RBC HERITAGE
Purse: $20M
Winner's Share: $3.6M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Hilton Head Island, S.C.
Course: Harbour Town Golf Links
Yardage: 7,213
Par: 71
2022 champion: Jordan Spieth
Tournament Preview
The week after the Masters is usually a time to exhale, both for the golfers and golf fans. Not so this year. Just four days after Jon Rahm took home the Green Jacket, the two-time major winner and most of the world's best are back at it for the latest designated tournament on the PGA Tour. To be sure, the RBC Heritage normally gets a great field even in this spot on the schedule because there is such affection for the course, venerable Harbour Town, but not like this.
Last year 25 of the top 50 golfers in the world rankings participated, but this year 40 of them have made the short trek from Augusta to Hilton Head Island. Rahm heads the field, along with No. 2 Scottie Scheffler -- who could regain the top ranking with a win -- and defending champion Jordan Spieth. The standard field number of 132 originally ballooned to the very odd number of 147 this year. That's because, as the PGA Tour Tweeted, "each player defined as eligible by the tournament regulations is guaranteed a spot in the field." That's a bit confusing because there are also a bunch of sponsor invites, but oh well. The large number meant that if there were any pre-tournament withdrawals -- and there have been a few -- no alternate would get into the field until the number dips below 132. And of course that won't be happening. So no need to stick around, top alternate J.B. Holmes.
The field is now down to 143 with four players withdrawing. The biggest name to bow out was world No. 3 Rory McIlroy, who is coming off a brutal missed cut at the Masters. This is the second designated event he will skip and, barring an injury, this would presumably cost him some big dollars in the money grab known as the Player Impact Program, or PIP. Players are allowed to miss one designated event but not two. McIlroy doesn't need the money, but he also doesn't need the bad optics. McIlroy lobbied hard for the other top golfers to sign off on all the designated events, and no one else had missed two so far.
There are still 4 and a half months left in the season and maybe we're seeing that there are too many designated events, at least close together. Seriously, who wants one the week after a major -- besides RBC and tournament organizers.
The other three WDs were Jason Day, Will Zalatoris (season-ending back surgery) and Alex Noren, though Noren is not popular enough among fans to be in the mix for PIP money. Two other names of note are absent: Hideki Matsuyama, who was never in the field as he skips his first designated event, and Aaron Wise, who continues his time away from the Tour on a mental-health break.
RBC -- the Royal Bank of Canada -- is also the title sponsor of the Canadian Open and sponsors numerous golfers or, as they like to call them, Team RBC ambassadors. There are a whopping nine of them in the field, including Canadians Corey Conners, Adam Hadwin, Mackenzie Hughes and Adam Svensson, plus non-Canadians Sam Burns, Cameron Young, Sahith Theegala, Matt Kuchar (the 2014 RBC winner) and Webb Simpson (the 2020 champion).
Kuchar, ranked 51st in the world, and Rickie Fowler, ranked 58th, resume their quest to return to the top 50 a week after being shut out of the Masters for the second straight year. Among the sponsor invites are Champions Tour greats Ernie Els, age 53, and Jim Furyk, 52, who won the RBC in 2010 and also in 2015 for his final PGA Tour title. Els was the 2007 runner-up to, of all people, Boo Weekley. It would be a tall task for either Els or Furyk to even make the cut, but the short track definitely helps to level the playing field for them.
Even before this became a designated event, you'd have thought the top players would've liked to break the week after a grueling major. But so many of them love, love, love this 1969 Pete Dye design that they come back year after year and year -- despite having to wear that hideous plaid sports jacket if they win. Harbour Town is the only course this tournament has ever been played on. In 1969, an aging Arnold Palmer, winless for more than a year, came to Hilton Head Island and captured the inaugural Heritage Golf Classic.
So why have so many greats made this an annual Tour stop? Maybe because Harbour Town reminds of a bygone era, when golf courses weren't a-thousandy-billion yards long. No, this quaint little track checks in at 7,200ish yards, and the golfers will have to be more tacticians than bombers. Kuchar is back for the 17th straight year and has said the narrow, tree-lined fairways, dog legs, water hazards and tiny greens "make it exciting to try to truly play chess around this golf course." Kuchar got his checkmate when he won the tournament in 2014. He is part of a who's-who of former champions here that could fill a wing in the Hall of Fame. Beginning with Palmer, who was 40 when he won, get a load of this list: Jack Nicklaus (who consulted with Dye), Johnny Miller, Tom Watson, Hale Irwin, Nick Faldo, Bernhard Langer, Greg Norman, Payne Stewart, Nick Price, Furyk and five-time champion Davis Love III, who at age 58 is in the field again via the former-champions category.
Even though there are many big names in the field, they don't always do well. Maybe it's the Masters hangover or maybe the shorter track let's so many other golfers into the conversation. For whatever the reason, the last decade of winners is dominated by mostly long shots and short hitters, and we have seen lots of low-priced golfers on the first page of the leaderboard.
Harbour Town underwent extensive renovations in 2015. A year later, Hurricane Matthew roared through, felling thousands of trees on the island. What we saw the next four years were some pretty tight scores. Branden Grace won at 9-under-par in 2016, followed by Wesley Bryan's 13-under, and then 12-under by Satoshi Kodaira (2018) and C.T. Pan (2019), which goes to show that a short track still can have some teeth. Three years ago, played in June after the pandemic restart, it was the fifth easiest track on Tour all year as Simpson set the scoring record at 22-under. The next year, with the tournament back in April, Stewart Cink came close to matching Simpson at 19-under, though the scores were generally back where they were in previous years, as Cink was four clear of everyone else. It was Cink's third RBC win -- an incredible 17 years after his second. Last year, Spieth won at the more usual score of 13-under.
Harbour Town's best defenses are wind, water on every hole and bermudagrass greens that average a mere 3,700 square feet, the smallest on Tour this side of Pebble Beach. As is always the case in April, the greens have been overseeded with poa trivialis. The tiny putting surfaces make getting on the green in regulation a challenge. This is traditionally one of the hardest GIR weeks of the season and therefore there is a premium on scrambling. There aren't many bunkers on the course, 54 in all. The signature hole is the 18th, a 472-yarder leading to the famed red-and-white-striped lighthouse and marina. Fittingly, it usually is the hardest hole on the course.
As for the weather, things don't look nearly as bad as last week in Augusta, but there is some rain in the forecast -- specifically on Friday and Sunday, especially Friday. So you'll want to check an updated forecast and tee times to see whether there's an edge. Otherwise, the high temperature will be in the upper 70s all four days with near-single-digit wind all week. Of course, the wind can change on a dime.
Fun Harbour Town factoid: The official Golf Course Superintendents Sheet advises that "wildlife on the course include deer, alligators, possum, rabbit, moles, otter, egret, heron, hawks, eagles, and osprey."
Key Stats to Winning at Harbour Town
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee/Driving Accuracy
• Strokes Gained: Putting
Past Champions
2022 - Jordan Spieth
2021 - Stewart Cink
2020 - Webb Simpson
2019 - C.T. Pan
2018 - Satoshi Kodaira
2017 - Wesley Bryan
2016 - Branden Grace
2015 - Jim Furyk
2014 - Matt Kuchar
2013 - Graeme McDowell
Champion's Profile
A truly long hitter hasn't won here in forever. Spieth is pretty long, but he ranked only 45th in the field in driving distance. There was a huge correlation last year between high finishes and both Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and Around-the-Green -- but not SG: Putting. Seven of the top-10 on the leaderboard ranked in the top-10 in T2G, while six were top-10 in Around. Spieth led the field in T2G, was fifth in Around, 10th in Approach and fourth in Off-the-Tee. The rub came on the greens, where he ranked only 60th. It's hard to imagine someone winning a PGA Tour event with such poor putting, but that's how good Spieth was everywhere else. What helps to level the playing field for the shorter hitters is the pinching of the fairways around the 300-yard mark. This week generally results in the shortest average drives of any tournament and the worst greens-in-regulation numbers. Firing at the tiny greens, even the most accurate iron players will see their GIR numbers dip. Spieth ranked ninth in GIR, just another strong stat for him. The year before, Cink, in a masterful performance, led the field in GIR at nearly 78 percent. He also was second in Approach and fifth in Around-the-Green, so he was able to still win comfortably despite ranking 25th in the field in putting. As we often say, smaller greens tend to neutralize the better putters. That doesn't necessarily mean that putting doesn't matter this week; it's just that poorer putters have a better chance of having a good putting week. The over/under on the winning score as determined by golfodds.com is 267.5 --16.5 under par.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Scottie Scheffler - $11,000 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +850)
Scheffler is second behind Rahm in DraftKings DFS prices but they are reversed at the DK Sportsbook. That's how close they are, and will continue to be, despite Rahm winning the Masters and regaining the No. 1 ranking. They could go back and forth all year. The edge this week goes to Scheffler because of Rahm's Masters hangover (figuratively speaking, though perhaps also literally). Even though Scheffler hasn't played Harbour Town before, his game plays anywhere.
Patrick Cantlay - $10,300 (+1100)
Cantlay is fresh off a final-round disappointment at Augusta, not to mention getting roasted on social media for his slow play. His tie for 14th at the Masters is more than respectable, but was one of his worst results all year. That's how good he is playing. Cantlay's history at this event is elite. He was runner-up last year to Spieth and also finished third in 2017 and 2019.
Collin Morikawa - $10,000 (+1800)
Morikawa's numbers are starting to return to where they were a couple of seasons ago. He's ranked second in Strokes Gained: Approach and fourth in Tee-to-Green. Even his putting, the weakest part of his game, is average for a Tour player. As we saw last year with Spieth, you can win this tournament without good putting. Morikawa has played here the past three years and tied for seventh two years ago.
Viktor Hovland - $9,800 (+2500)
Hovland has been playing great golf the past month -- 10th at Bay Hill, third at THE PLAYERS and seventh at the Masters. As most of us saw, he could've been so much better at Augusta but faded on Sunday. He showed that his short game is clearly improving. Hovland is now ranked 165th in SG: Around-the-Green. That may not sound good, and it's not, but it's far better than where it used to be. He does everything else quite well, if not great. Hovland played Harbour Town once before and tied for 21st three years ago.
Tier 2 Values
Justin Thomas - $8,900 (+2500)
Thomas comes in at No. 3 overall in our model, behind only Scheffler and Rahm. That's because there's an increased emphasis this week on short game -- at which Thomas is one of the best -- and a bit of a deemphasis on putting, which is Thomas' weak point. We expect him to be highly motivated to play well this week after agonizingly missing the cut at the Masters for the first time. Having last weekend off, however unintended, means Thomas is also a lot more rested than many of the top guys. He finished eighth here three years ago.
Sungjae Im - $8,600 (+2500)
Im is figuring out how to play Harbour Town. After missing the cut in his first two trips, he was 13th two years ago and 21st last year. Like Thomas, he ranks very highly in our model -- fifth. Im is coming off a pretty good Masters, in which he tied for 16th. Not in contention, his Sunday wasn't especially stressful.
Shane Lowry - $8,300 (+3500)
Lowry finished 16th at the Masters. That was a far cry from his T3 last year, but it was enough to show us that his game is rounding into form. Like at Augusta, Harbour Town demands superior play around the greens. Lowry can do that, as evidenced by his excellent RBC history. He's finished third twice there, including last year, and was ninth in 2021.
Tommy Fleetwood - $8,100 (+6500)
Fleetwood checks in very high in our model at No. 9. He has one of the best short games -- ranked an elite second on Tour in SG: Around-the-Green. He's also ranked 25th in Approach. Fleetwood had a good-but-not-great Masters -- he finished 33rd -- but that means his Sunday was largely stress-free. He finished 10th here a year ago.
Tier 3 Values
Matt Kuchar - $7,700 (+4500)
Kuchar will be a popular play this week, and rightfully so. He's always loved his course, and the results show it. He won here in 2014, was runner-up in 2019 and third last year, with two other top-10s along the way. Besides Harbour Town being a shorter track, which benefits the distance-challenged Kuchar, he remains one of the best scramblers on Tour. That's a big reason why he ranks fourth in our model. Kuchar also will be well rested, having missed the Masters last week for the second straight year.
Chris Kirk - $7,500 (+8000)
Kirk doesn't have nearly the history here that Kuchar does, though he was seventh two years ago and checks off some of the same boxes, notably a great short game and putter. Kirk is ranked sixth in our model. Kirk quietly finished in the top-25 at the Masters last week, well enough to show he's on his game but far enough back that it wasn't an overly stressful Sunday.
J.T. Poston - $7,300 (+6000)
Poston loves him some Harbour Town. Even though the DFS price-makers didn't get the memo, the DK Sportsbook folk surely did with odds on par with Kuchar. Poston finished third a year ago, the third time he's been in the top-eight in the past four years. Poston's putting numbers this season are far from where they often are, but sometimes you have to look past that. He tied for 34th at the Masters to nudge back inside the top-50 at No. 49.
Adam Hadwin - $7,300 (+11000)
Hadwin scores very well in our model, ranked an impressive 15th overall. His stats are sound across the board. He's had some good tournaments this year, with a top-10 at Phoenix and, more recently a top-15 at THE PLAYERS. Hadwin's results at Harbour Town curiously have been a mixed bag. He's made five of his past six cuts there, but with just one top-25. He just missed a second one last year (T26).
Long-Shot Values
Joel Dahmen - $6,900 (+13000)
Harbour Town is surely one of Dahmen's favorite stops on Tour. He finished 12th here last year and was 16th in 2019. He has made his past three cuts this year, including at the Valspar and THE PLAYERS. Dahmen is ranked 31st on Tour in SG: Tee-to-Green.
Brendan Todd - $6,900 (+18000)
Todd is ranked the near the bottom in driving distance on Tour, which puts him at a huge disadvantage on so many courses. He's quite good in every other aspect of his game, including 11th in SG: Around-the-Green, 65th in Tee-to-Green and 26th in Putting. Todd made the cut here the past two years, just missing a top-25 last year (T26).
Scott Piercy - $6,600 (+40000)
Piercy is now 44. His biggest issues are on the tee and on the greens. Two big areas, sure, but in between he's not so bad. He's ranked top-50 in SG: Approach and 31st in Around-the-Green. Piercy has made five of nine cuts in 2023, plus one WD. He's made the Harbour Town cut four of the past five years with three top-16s, including 12th last year.
Kramer Hickok - $6,500 (+40000)
It was very hard to identify a quality play at $6500 or under, and we always have at least one. We like Hickok the best, but are hardly making a big endorsement here. He is playing better of late, having made five straight cuts before a miss last time out at the Valero. That stretch included the Genesis and THE PLAYERS. Hickok is pretty average across the board statistically, though he's 72nd in greens in regulation, which is far better than average. He missed the cut in his Harbour Town debut a year ago.
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