DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: TOUR Championship Cash and GPP Strategy

TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP

Purse: $40M
Winner's Share: $10M 
Location: Atlanta 
Course: East Lake Golf Club 
Yardage: 7,440
Par: 70
2024 champion: Scottie Scheffler

Tournament Preview

The PGA Tour's widely panned staggered starting positions in the TOUR Championship are gone. Unfortunately for all the golfers, Scottie Scheffler is still around.

It was beyond ludicrous that last year Scheffler actually started the tournament with a lead, under the Tour's now-eliminated "starting strokes format." The joke going around social media now is that Scheffler should start from behind just to give the other golfers a fighting chance. He is coming off the fifth win of his Tiger-esque season last week at the BMW Championship.

Scheffler technically is the defending champion of the TOUR Championship -- in the eyes of the PGA Tour. But not in the eyes of the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR). In fact, according to the OWGR, Scheffler has never won the Tour's season-ending championship. It bases its results on the 72-hole score, disregarding the starting strokes format.

Here is Scheffler's East Lake history, using low-72:

• 2024: Solo 3rd, two shots behind winner Collin Morikawa
• 2023: T21, 18 shots behind Viktor Hovland
• 2022: T13, seven shots behind Rory McIlroy
• 2021: T12, 12 shot behind Jon Rahm and Kevin Na
• 2020: runner-up, three shots behind Xander Schauffele

So Scheffler has come close twice. Of course, it's impossible to fully trust any data in the starting-strokes era of the past six years. There's no way of knowing how someone would play if they hadn't gotten strokes at the start, or were behind at the start. Everyone's game plan could change. Last year, Scheffler got anywhere from two to 10 strokes on the rest of the field. He could've played more conservatively in certain situations, knowing he had a lead instead of being behind. And so on.

All that said, Scheffler is the overwhelming favorite, priced at $13,900 in DraftKings DFS and at the that-must-be-a-typo odds of +150 at the DK Sportsbook.

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The goal here is to win your six-man DFS lineup. And with Scheffler, that will be hard. He is priced $2,600 more than No. 2 McIlroy. And, at the opposite-end of the 30-man field, more than double all 10 guys in the $6,000s. If you play Scheffler, you will have $36,100 remaining, an average of $7,220 for the other five guys. Mathematically, of course, it's doable to field a lineup. But far from easy to win. You'd need to polish your crystal ball and not only find the three or four best $6,000 guys, but also hope they will have high finishes. We'll give you, as always, options in all price ranges. But it seems an easier path to winning your DK games would be avoiding Scheffler, even if you are expecting him to win, as we are.

East Lake Golf Club underwent a full-blown renovation/restoration after the 2023 tournament. Noted architect Andrew Green's goal for the Tom Bendolow (1904)/Donald Ross (1913) design was to return the course to Ross' vision. As the 2024 official Golf Course Superintendents Association of America (GCSAA) tournament fact sheet put it: "The course was completely rebuilt from the ground up."

Using a previously undiscovered 1949 aerial photograph as guidance, Green rebuilt everything -- tee boxes, fairways, bunkers, greens, maybe even the snack shop.

The course went from a par-70 at 7.346 yards to 71/7,490. Routing was unchanged but greens were shifted, along with surrounding runoff areas, and are now bigger, at an average of 6,238 square feet, an increase of about 600 square feet per hole. There's more fairway and a lot less rough -- that sounds easier and it was last year -- four more bunkers (78), more strategically placed bunkers to affect tee shots and water in play on eight holes instead of six.

There has been further, smaller changes since last year, and the course is now back to a par-70 playing 50 yards shorter than last year at 7,440. The 14th hole changed from a 580-yard par-5 to a 530-yard par-4. Just two par-5s remain, Nos. 6 and 18.

There are now eight par-4s of 450ish-plus yards. What we have liked about the course all along is that accuracy off the tee counts more than in most places. Yes, there is now more fairway and less rough, but the newly placed bunkers helped to neutralize all that.

Looking at the weather, there are afternoon thunderstorms in the forecast every day. That shouldn't be surprising. It's just summer in the Deep South. While the temperature could hit 90 on Thursday, it is expected to be substantially cooler the rest of the tournament -- in the low to mid-80s. The wind doesn't look like much of a factor.

TOUR Championship perks: All 30 golfers in the field received a two-year exemption on Tour, even if they didn't win. They also receive berths into the three U.S.-based majors next season. They already got into all the Signature Events by reaching last week's BMW Championship.

Key Stats to Winning at East Lake

The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.

• Driving Accuracy/Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee 
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation/Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
• Strokes Gained: Putting 
• Par-4 Efficiency, 450-500 yards

Past Champions

2024 - Scottie Scheffler
2023 - Viktor Hovland
2022 - Rory McIlroy
2021 - Patrick Cantlay
2020 - Dustin Johnson
2019 - Rory McIlroy
2018 - Tiger Woods
2017 - Xander Schauffele
2016 - Rory McIlroy
2015 - Jordan Spieth

Champion's Profile

The lowest score in relation to par (not including the staggered start) was often in the mid- to upper teens. Last year, with the big changes, Collin Morikawa shot the low-72 at 22-under. Sahith Theegala was a shot back and Scheffler was two back. So, three guys were 20-under or better.

All three were statistically sound in most areas, especially with their irons. All three finished in the top-5 in SG: Approach. All three were top-8 in both greens in regulation and SG: Putting. Scheffler ranked first in driving distance, Theegala was sixth and Morikawa was 12th, so that surely mattered. Morikawa ranked first in driving accuracy, Scheffler tied for second and Theegala tied for 18th. Despite Theegala's relative inaccuracy, they all finished top-5 in SG: OTT.

We still like guys who can get the ball in the fairway.

The over/under on the winning score at golfodds.com was set at 262.5, which is only 17.5 under, far lower than last year's low-72 of 22-under.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS

Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap

Scottie Scheffler - $13,900 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +150) 
We explained all the Scheffler scenarios above. You have to decide whether he's right for your lineup, even if he wins. We think there are more prudent ways to go that are more likely to cash.

Rory McIlroy - $11,300 (+850) 
It's wild that a guy who won the Masters, THE PLAYERS and a Signature Event -- AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am -- won't even get a sniff of a Player of the Year vote. McIlroy has had a remarkable season get completely overshadowed by Scheffler. This is a guy who has finished T6-T2-T7-T12 in his past four starts. And let's not forget McIlroy's history at East Lake as the only three-time FedEx Cup champion.

Tommy Fleetwood - $9,900 (+1400) 
Fleetwood is having one of the best seasons in PGA Tour history for a non-winner. Yes, we know that's a left-handed compliment. But he has seven top-10s, five of which were top-5s, including the first two playoff events. Instead of crumbling after he, um, crumbled at the end of the Travelers, Fleetwood has continued to grind and strung together one of the best stretches of golf in his career.

J.J. Spaun - $8,100 (+2500)  
East Lake reminds us at least a little bit of TPC Southwind, a long par-70 played in sweltering heat with a premium on driving accuracy and long iron play. Spaun was excellent at the St. Jude, losing in a tight playoff with Justin Rose. The only thing to give us pause about Spaun is that this will be his first go-round at East Lake and in the environment of the TOUR Championship. It's just a different vibe, with so few golfers on site.

Cameron Young - $7,900 (+3000)   
Young has played well enough -- more than well enough -- the past three weeks to almost certainly have locked up a U.S. Ryder Cup captain's pick. But we're sure he's taking nothing for granted and will keep his foot firmly pressed on the gas. After winning the Wyndham, Young was fifth at the St. Jude and 11th last week at the BMW. He's ranked top-10 on Tour in driving distance and SG: Putting.

Ben Griffin - $7,700 (+3500)  
Griffin is another guy who almost surely has claimed one of the six U.S. captain's picks already. But the great ones keep their head down and keep playing till the whistle. He's finished in the top-12 the past three weeks. There is not one weakness in Griffin's game -- top-30 in SG: Approach and Putting, 20th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 8th in SG: Total.

Harry Hall - $7,000 (+4500)  
Hall, Hall, Hall, every dang week. There he was last week at the BMW, needing a high finish to reach the TOUR Championship. He netted solo sixth to bump out Lucas Glover as the only golfer to jump into the top 30. Hall is ranked second on Tour in SG: Putting and sixth in SG: Total. There has been zero buzz about him making a European Ryder Cup team that probably has 11 slots locked up. But there is a 12th spot, and Hall absolutely deserves it.

Jacob Bridgeman - $6,100 (+10000)  
Bridgeman is the most anonymous, most unlikely guy to finish in the top-30, the biggest surprise at East Lake. He had a great season, albeit one that was heavily front loaded. But he also quietly finished top-20 in each of the first two playoff events. That may not sound like anything special in smaller fields, but Bridgeman has beaten a lot of very good golfers the past two weeks. He is ranked 11th on Tour in SG: Putting.

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