This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
HOUSTON OPEN
Purse: $6.6M
Winner's Share: $1,152,000
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Humble, Texas
Course: Golf Club of Houston
Yardage: 7,441
Par: 72
Tournament Preview
With a near-satiated 99 players already qualified for next week's Masters, there is just one ticket left to get in: win the Houston Open. The last two winners, Matt Jones and D.A. Points, have achieved this very feat, gaining entry on the last possible chance to grace the grounds of Augusta National the following week. Since landing the pre-Masters slot on the schedule in 2007, the Golf Club of Houston has fancied its layout to simulate Augusta National, with Stimpmeters tipping the scales at 13 and delicately shaved banks and collection areas around the greens to create tight lies throughout the course. The field consists of 13 of the top-30 players in the world, including Jimmy Walker, Jordan Spieth, Patrick Reed and Sergio Garcia. The golf course itself is not particularly difficult, yielding a 20-under score to Phil Mickelson in 2011, but in recent years the winning score has hovered around 16-under for the eventual champion.
Key Stats to Winning at the GC of Houston
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
• Greens in Regulation
• Proximity to the Hole
Last Decade of Houston Open Champions
2014 - Matt Jones
2013 - D.A. Points
2012 - Hunter Mahan
2011 - Phil Mickelson
2010 - Anthony Kim
2009 - Paul Casey
2008 - Johnson Wagner
2007 - Adam Scott
2006 - Stuart Appleby
2005 - Vijay Singh
Long par-5s, long par-3s and a good chance for windy/wet conditions await players in Houston this week. Matt Jones won last year with a ridiculously hot putter, but don't let this cloud your judgment; great ballstrikers have owned this tournament the last decade. The reality is, virtually every winner on tour putts well above their typical levels in a victory week, but they don't necessarily exceed their ballstriking ability. Mahan, Mickelson, Kim, Casey, Wagner, Scott and Singh are all longer than normal off the tee and GREAT ballstrikers, which tells us the GC of Houston tailors to this skill set the vast majority of the time. If it rains and the wind blows again, it could stand to benefit this type of player even more.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Jimmy Walker - $12,100 (Odds: 11/1)
Patrick Reed - $11,700 (14/1)
Matt Kuchar - $11,400 (16/1)
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Ryan Moore - $9,400 (Odds: 25/1)
Louis Oosthuizen - $9,300 (25/1)
J.B. Holmes - $9,300 (25/1)
Jason Kokrak - $8,800 (33/1)
Matt Jones - $8,700 (33/1)
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Paul Casey - $8,000 (Odds: 45/1)
Shawn Stefani - $7,700 (45/1)
Charley Hoffman - $7,500 (50/1)
Cameron Tringale - $7,300 (55/1)
Justin Thomas - $7,100 (66/1)
Russell Henley - $7,000 (66/1)
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Padraig Harrington - $6,200 (Odds: 100/1)
Aaron Baddeley - $6,200 (100/1)
Tony Finau - $5,400 (125/1)
Chad Campbell - $5,100 (125/1)
Charlie Beljan - $4,700 (200/1)
WHO I'M ROLLING WITH THIS WEEK
Lower-Risk Cash Game Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Matt Kuchar - $11,400
Sergio Garcia - $9,600
Brendan Steele - $8,300
Charley Hoffman - $7,500
Cameron Tringale - $7,300
Brian Davis - $5,800
Kuchar is back for revenge after he pulled one into the water on 18 last year and then got upended by not one, but two, miraculous shots by Matt Jones. Kuchar has been looming but not contending recently, and it's only a matter of time before the smiling assassin strikes again. Sergio has only played here twice since it became the pre-Masters warmup but was third last year and can win anywhere (except majors). Both Steele and Hoffman are notoriously good on Texas soil, and Cameron Tringale is a sneaky horse for the course finishing fourth, 16th and eighth the last three years in Houston. Davis is risk-reward play at $5,800 with two top-6 finishes here but also two missed cuts the last five years.
Higher-Risk Tournament Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Jimmy Walker - $12,100
Louis Oosthuizen - $9,300
J.B Holmes - $9,300
Shawn Stefani - $7,700
Padraig Harrington - $6,200
Tony Finau - $5,400
Jimmy Walker may be worn out from last week's dominating 4-stroke victory in his hometown, but his value is just too good to pass up this week at $12,100. Louis Oosthuizen always seems to get his game primed for the Masters-style GC of Houston, earning three top-16s in his last four tries. Holmes nearly won a few weeks back in the loaded WGC-Cadillac field, and with a great track record at the Houston Open he's bound to find the leaderboard Sunday. Stefani has been outperforming expectations all year with eight top-30s already this season. Harrington is an enigma but is no stranger to the winner's circle as he took down the Honda Classic in clutch fashion just a month ago. Finally, Finau is a solid value and could surprise with his incredible length especially if conditions are damp and windy throughout the week.
