This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
THE HONDA CLASSIC
Purse: $6.1M
Winner's Share: $1.098M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, Fla.
Course: PGA National (Champion Course)
Yardage: 7,110
Par: 70
Tournament Preview
The Honda Classic marks the genesis of the Florida Swing where many international players make their first appearance on the PGA Tour. Big names like Rory McIlroy, Martin Kaymer, Lee Westwood and Graeme McDowell encompass this group. Also in the field are highly ranked players like Justin Rose, Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson and Sergio Garcia, forming the strongest field of the season to date with 16 of the top-25 players in the world. Jack Nicklaus redesigned PGA National in 2000 and since the Honda Classic moved to the venue in 2007 the Champion course has played as one of the 10 toughest tracks on the PGA Tour. The famous "Bear Trap" comprised of holes 15 through 17 poses two long-iron par-3 holes and a challenging par-4, all of which require forced carries over water hazards and have played over par the last five years. For those who like a good pitcher's duel in baseball or find guilty pleasure in watching the pros at the U.S. Open hit shots like weekend warriors, this week just may be your cup of tea.
Key Stats to Winning at PGA National
• Greens in Regulation
• Par-4 Scoring
• Total Driving (with more emphasis on driving distance)
• Scrambling Percentage
Last Decade of Honda Classic Champions
2014 - Russell Henley
2013 - Michael Thompson
2012 - Rory McIlroy
2011 - Rory Sabbatini
2010 - Camilo Villegas
2009 - Y.E. Yang
2008 - Ernie Els
2007 - Mark Wilson
2006 - Luke Donald (Country Club at Mirasol)
2005 - Padraig Harrington (Country Club at Mirasol)
Analyzing the past champs and near winners reveals two types of players who can succeed at PGA National: longer-hitting ballstrikers (McIlroy, Villegas, Els) and short-game gurus (Henley, Thompson, Yang, Wilson). Total driving and greens in regulation are very important on the hazardous, mildly tree-lined course that sports several holes where water is dangerously in play. When the inevitable missed greens happen, the scrambling par saves will be crucial to maintain momentum and avoid bogeys.
HONDA CLASSIC DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Dustin Johnson - $11,500 (odds: 13/1)
Justin Rose - $10,800 (20/1)
Sergio Garcia - $10,000 (27/1)
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Keegan Bradley - $9,800 (odds: 25/1)
Rickie Fowler - $9,700 (27/1)
Graeme McDowell - $9,600 (29/1)
Brooks Koepka - $9,500 (27/1)
Lee Westwood - $9,300 (30/1)
Ryan Palmer - $9,300 (30/1)
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Graham DeLaet - $8,700 (odds: 45/1)
Paul Casey - $8,400 (45/1)
Russell Henley - $8,300 (50/1)
Billy Horschel - $8,000 (60/1)
Justin Thomas - $7,800 (80/1)
Fredrik Jacobson - $7,200 (80/1)
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Daniel Berger - $7,000 (odds: 120/1)
Boo Weekley - $6,500 (130/1)
Camilo Villegas - $6,400 (140/1)
Carlos Ortiz - $6,200 (250/1)
Jhonattan Vegas - $5,900 (230/1)
John Peterson - $5,600 (300/1)
Charlie Beljan - $5,400 (250/1)
Derek Fathauer - $4,800 (400/1)
WHO I'M ROLLING WITH THIS WEEK
Lower-Risk Cash Game Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Keegan Bradley - $9,800
Ryan Palmer - $9,300
Graham DeLaet - $8,700
Paul Casey - $8,400
Fredrik Jacobson - $7,200
Boo Weekley - $6,500
With McIlroy sporting an excessive $15,700 salary it's nearly impossible to fit him in a legitimate lineup, so the next best thing is loading up on value in the Tier 2 group that includes trending players like Bradley, Palmer, DeLaet and Casey. Fredrik Jacobson has a great history with six consecutive top-30s at the event and is an incredible value at $7,200. Weekley nearly won the Honda Classic in 2007 and is quite capable of carding a top-25 finish and, more importantly, making the cut to keep the points rolling in for four rounds.
Higher-Risk Tournament Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Sergio Garcia - $10,000
Keegan Bradley - $9,800
Rickie Fowler - $9,700
Brooks Koepka - $9,500
John Peterson - $5,600
Charlie Beljan - $5,400
This may not seem as high risk as the title suggests, but it bunches together a combination of four studs and two scrubs who have flashed signs of greatness this season. Sergio and Keegan are coming off top-5 efforts at a similarly challenging track last week, Koepka is a catapult off the tee and coming off a win a month ago at the Phoenix Open and long-hitting Beljan posted a top-3 at Pebble two weeks ago. Rickie Fowler seems due for a top finish at a high-profile tournament as he's been mostly under the radar this season after a breakout 2014 campaign courtesy of swing guru Butch Harmon.
