This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
Farmers Insurance Open
Courses: Torrey Pines South Course [Host] (7,765 yards, par 72), Torrey Pines North Course (7,258 yards, par 72)
Purse: $9,300,000
Winner: $1,674,000 and 500 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
We are right in the middle of the multi-course swing. After players got three last week at The American Express before a 54-hole cut was made, the Farmers Insurance Open once again will see all players get a round at both the South and North course before the 36-hole cut and the top 65 players and ties tee it up for the final two rounds on the beast that is Torrey Pines South. There will be a similar story at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am next week where 80 players will get to try there hand at Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill before closing with two rounds at Pebble. There will be no cut in that Signature Event, however.
Speaking of Signature Events, the Farmers Insurance Open is the final week to finalize the Aon Swing 5 for Pebble Beach. The top-five FedExCup point earners from the Sony Open through this event will determine who get a spot for the second of eight Signature Events in 2025. Right now J.J. Spaun, Justin Lower, Alex Smalley, Charley Hoffman and Harry Hall hold the five spots, but plenty can still change at Torrey Pines.
Another Signature Event that is having an affect on this week is the Genesis Invitational Feb. 13-16. Usually held at Riviera Country Club, the PGA Tour has decided to move it for 2025 after all the wildfire devastation in the Palisades. While nothing has been made official, it is expected that the event will move to Torrey Pines. There's a few reasons for that. For starters it will keep the Genesis Invitational in the Southern California area and also Torrey Pines will also have the proper hospitality already set up from the Farmers Insurance Open. What it has meant for this week, however, is that a number of high profile player have decided to withdraw from the Farmers, not wanting to play the same course twice in a four-week span. Collin Morikawa, Nicolai Hojgaard, Mackenzie Hughes and Akshay Bhatia are few that fall into that category.
That all being said, there will still be some stars teeing it up in La Jolla, California like Hideki Matsuyama and Ludvig Aberg. In total there will be nine players in the top 30 of the OWGR. There's also some players outside of that who are notable former winners at Torrey Pines like Jason Day and Justin Rose, as well as players with strong records in California like Max Homa and Will Zalatoris looking to get back on track in 2025. Two other names to watch this week are Luke Clanton and Jackson Koivun. Both players received sponsor exemptions and are on track to earn a Tour card via the PGA Tour University Accelerated Points. Clanton needs just three more to hit 20 points before the end of this college golf season to lock one up, while Koivun has already amassed 17 points in his sophomore season after a historic freshman campaign that saw him sweep the Nicklaus, Haskins and Hogan awards.
Torrey Pines South is the longest course on the PGA Tour schedule at nearly 7,800 yards. It's distance combined with long rough and bumpy poa annua greens is a big mental test for the players. A key in this event is always taking advantage of the shorter North course. While not the same pushover it once was, the North will still play multiple shots easier than the South. The winning score is usually somewhere in the low to mid teens under-par range, and usually the champion has made a lot of that score up on the North course.
This is a short week for all the players as the PGA Tour will once again go to do a Wednesday start for the Farmers Insurance Open to avoid any conflict with NFL Championship Sunday. The first three rounds are looking to be pretty similar in terms of weather, although Thursday is projected to reach into the mid-70s. The final round on Saturday appears to be the wildcard as a cold front moves in that will drop temps 10+ degrees from the first three rounds while also brining in the strongest winds of the week.
Recent Champions
2024 - Matthieu Pavon (-13)
2023 - Max Homa (-13)
2022 - Luke List (-15)
2021 - Patrick Reed (-14)
2020 - Marc Leishman (-15)
2019 - Justin Rose (-21)
2018 - Jason Day (-10)
2017 - Jon Rahm (-13)
2016 - Brandt Snedeker (-6)
2015 - Jason Day (-9)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Off-the-Tee/Driving Distance
- SG: Approach/GIR Percentage
- SG: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
- Bogey Avoidance/Proximity 150-200 yards
Champion's Profile
We know what needs to be done to succeed on a track like Torrey Pines. There might not be any other week where I focus on SG: Off-the-Tee so heavily, but that's really what we are forced to do on a track that plays so long with such penal rough. Not far behind in importance is SG: Approach and GIR percentage, as it is most weeks. Tiger Woods was the best iron player we have ever seen and he won here eight times (7 Farmers Insurance Opens and 1 U.S. Open). Players need to be in control and will likely have to a hit a lot more mid-to-long irons than usual into these greens.
The first three events of the 2025 season were mostly birdie-fests, but that is not expected to be the case this week. We will shift to placing more emphasis on SG: Around-the-Green, scrambling and bogey avoidance. This is a tournament where being able to save a few shots around these greens is going to pay off big, especially since the GIR percentage will be a lot lower than Kapalua, Waialae and the desert courses. I also think players who historically putt well on poa annua should get a look as well. These putting surfaces can be extremely frustrating as good putts can easily pop offline and miss. This is always a tournament we see a lot of missed short putts and you just have to be mentally tough enough to put it out of mind and keep grinidng.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Ludvig Aberg ($11,900)
Aberg is arguably the best driver of the golf ball in the game today and that alone should warrant him getting a spot on your DFS lineups at Torrey Pines. He has gained strokes off the tee in 17 of his last 18 tournaments and was fourth in total driving last season. Aberg is also very strong in the 150-200 yard range, which is where he will see a lot of his second shots come in on this South course. He finished T9 in his Torrey Pines debut last year.
Hideki Matsuyama ($11,800)
Matsuyama is obviously in great form after his win at The Sentry and he has finished T16-or-better in six of his last eight starts. Matsuyama is back to hitting the ball at an elite level ranking fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green this season. He also has gained strokes with the putter in five of his last seven measured starts. Matsuyama hasn't missed a cut in his last eight trips to Torrey and he has four top-15s in that stretch. His terrific short game will be a big key.
Tony Finau ($11,600)
Torrey Pines has been arguably Finau's best course on Tour. He is 9-for-10 with six top-10s and a worst finish of T24 when he has made the cut. Finau's distance and elite iron play really help him here, but he's also gained strokes around the greens in all but one career start at this venue. While the 35-year-old missed the cut last week, prior to that he had finished top-25 in 10 of 11 starts. Finau ranked second last season to Scottie Scheffler in SG: Approach.
The Middle Tier
Luke Clanton ($10,200)
Clanton might be only 21 years old, but he is one of the best ball strikers in this field. He only had 29 rounds last season, but he would have ranked seventh on Tour in SG: Tee-to-Green, second in SG: Off-the-Tee, third in SG: Approach, first in GIR percentage and first in proximity to the hole. There's just too much to ignore there on such a demanding course at this value.
Stephan Jaeger ($9,700)
Jaeger was in position to win at Waialae, but ultimately settled for a T3 finish. That was his second top-three finish in four starts. Jaeger's bomb and gauge approach wasn't even that well suited for Waialae, but it will treat him well at Torrey Pines. Last season he ranked 32nd in SG: Off-the-Tee and 13th in total driving. His best proximity ranges are also in that 150-200 yard range. Jaeger will have confidence after a T3 a year ago at Torrey Pines.
Austin Eckroat ($9,400)
Eckroat is another tremendous ball striker who has the game to tackle the South course. Last season he ranked 30th in SG: Off-the-Tee, eighth in total driving and 27th in SG: Approach. The Oklahoma State product also was top-20 on Tour in proximity from 150-200 yards. Eckroat's MC at the Sony came after he made the weekend in seven straight with five top-20 finishes, including that win in Mexico.
The Long Shots
Alex Smalley ($8,900)
Smalley's game fell off a bit after a very solid 2022-23 campaign. That said, one thing he still excelled in was ball striking, as he ranks 27th in SG: Off-the-Tee, ninth in total driving and 19th in GIR percentage. Smalley is off to a hot start to 2025 finished T16 at Waialae and 11th at The American Express. He has gained strokes in every category in both of those events.
Frankie Capan III ($8,500)
Capan III is a young player that many are high on after graduating to the PGA Tour following seven top-10s and 12 top-25s on the Korn Ferry Tour last year. What is very impressive about his game is his touch around the greens. Capan III was third in scrambling last season on the KFT and is eighth so far this season on the PGA Tour in SG: Around-the-Green. He's coming off a T12 in Palm Springs and that short game should really help him at Torrey Pines.
Matti Schmid ($7,700)
On paper Torrey Pines should be an excellent venue for a player like Schmid who has gained strokes off the tee 12 of his last 14 measured tournaments. Schmid was also 17th last season in total driving and seventh in proximity from 175-200 yards. He hasn't had a great start to 2025, but neither venue really fit what he likes to do. Schmid closed 2024 having made 15 of his last 17 cuts with a pair of top-five results and six top-20s.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
The forecast looks pretty similar for the first two rounds, so I don't think it's worth trying to stack a lineup who is playing the North course one day and the South on the other. With how demanding the South course is, I think the best bet is just to load up on ball strikers. It's a hard course to make a lot of putts on, so players who drive it well and hit a lot of greens should give use the best chance to get six golfers through to the final two rounds. Keegan Bradley ($11,500), Shane Lowry ($10,700), Niklas Norgaard ($9,500) and Kevin Yu ($8,800) are some other options in each range not mentioned above who I think deserve a look.
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