This article is part of our Golf One and Done Pool Expert Picks series.
Texas Children's Houston Open
Maybe just look at the Fades section if you're trying to pick a winner at the Texas Children's Houston Open. The last two tournaments we've had multiple fade selections for Rory McIlroy, who was victorious at THE PLAYERS Championship, and then multiple fades on Viktor Hovland, who came out of nowhere to win at the Valspar Championship last week. That's just how it goes sometimes. Golf is one funny game. McIlroy really hadn't done anything the last five years at TPC Sawgrass and the best club in his bag in basically neutralized to some degree...ranks 67th in driving accuracy and wins. Hovland comes into Innisbrook having missed three straight cuts and losing strokes on the greens in five straight...ranks second in SG: Putting and wins. Go figure.
We'll see if common sense prevails this week at the Houston Open where the two Masters favorites of Scottie Scheffler and McIlroy will be making their final starts before the first major of the year. Wyndham Clark (11th) and Maverick McNealy (16th) are the only other top-20 ranked players in the field this week. While this is of course a non-Signature Event, there's still a $1.71 million check going to the winner with solo second set to take home north of a $1 million as well. It's not going to be quite as consequential, but still there's enough there to make a big move in your pool.
The top-six players in our RotoWire pool have all hit at least one Signature Event so far this season and have pulled out a sizable gap to the rest of the field. The top player hit both Ludvig Aberg at the Genesis and McIlroy at THE PLAYERS, giving them a $3.5 million lead over second. That is more than the gap from 8th to the bottom of the 39-man pool. While that might seem insurmountable, we haven't even hit the first major of the season and there are plenty of big-money events left to make up that gap. It's hard to really eliminate anyone at this stage. We also divide our season into four segments with bonuses for the top earner in each, and also the top earner across the four majors. We are right in the middle of the second segment currently. All is still to play for.
Course Tidbits
- Course: Memorial Park Golf Course (7,475 yards, par 70)
- Location: Houston, Texas
- Purse: $9.5 million ($1.71 million to winner)
- Defending Champion: Stephan Jaeger (-12)
- Average Winning Score at Memorial Park: -12.75
Looking at Memorial Park on the card, it has one of the largest yards per par numbers on the PGA Tour. This par-70 can stretch to nearly 7,500 yards is made up of three par-5s and five par-3s. With the Florida Swing now over, players will get somewhat of a reprieve from all the hazards that make up those courses. Memorial Park has the fewest bunkers of PGA Tour courses with just 21, and also only four holes where water comes into play. This course also has very benign rough that won't really affect the player much. That said, the angles are really important on this course to be able to set up a good chance for birdie. The tree-line fairways will force players to work the ball in both directions.
Looking at a lot of these greens from an overhead view, it may not seem like there's a lot of defense. But when you take a closer look you'll notice that most of these greens will fall off on all sides with short grass. That will lead to missed approach shots gathering speed and going into a collection area. The short grass shots are really were the best scramblers are able to differentiate themselves, versus a course with thick grass right off the side of the green. Memorial Park is one of the highest correlated courses on Tour when it comes to short game and putting performance.
The big talk a week ago was the weather in the first two rounds and potential advantage it was going to give to the AM/PM split. That really didn't end up coming to fruition as the main contenders on Sunday of Hovland and Justin Thomas came out of the PM/AM split. Again we have a weather issue for Thursday and Friday where it looks like the most gusty winds will be present for the PM/AM split. There's also expected to be some precipitation in the first two rounds, most of which will dump on the PM/AM wave, but who knows we could also see some electricity which could cause a delay and maybe completely shift the advantage around. Temperatures will heat up for the weekend and we should have no issues deciding a winner by Sunday evening.
RotoWire One and Done Tools
Texas Children's Houston Open: One and Done Picks
Rai's track record at Memorial Park makes him an excellent target in One and Done contests as he's finished no worse than T19 across three appearances including back-to-back top-10s. His scoring average here of 68.4 is bested by only Tony Finau among those with at least eight rounds played, and he's in great form with three consecutive top-15 finishes. Rai has mostly stuck to the Signature Events with his schedule this year, so I don't think he's going to have many better opportunities to win than here. --Ryan Pohle
Some weeks you absolutely love your pick, and some weeks are just meh. This is a meh week. The good news is, whether you like your pick or not has no bearing on how they perform, so perhaps by the end of the week I'll be amped up about this pick. It's not that I don't like Jaeger here, I do, but I'm a little concerned about him defending. With that said, I do like how he's played here the past two years, and his form is good enough to make a run this week. --Greg Vara
Lee's combination of firepower and touch makes him an intriguing option at Memorial Park, which is a long course with a big emphasis on putting and short game. This season Lee ranks third in driving distance, 15th in SG: Putting and ninth in SG: Around-the-Green. Lee's only real struggle this year has been with the short irons, but most of the approaches will come with longer clubs where Lee's rankings in the proximity buckets are a little better. He comes into the week having finished T27-or-better in 11 of his last 13 starts worldwide. --Ryan Andrade
While the less-than-dominant Rai, Finau and J.J. Spaun combine to soak up more than 50 percent of the projected site-wide OAD ownership on OfficeFootballPool.com, I'll gladly pivot to a talented Houston Open debutant in Lee. I'm not worried about a lack of course history, especially given how Lee's power off the tee and prowess around the greens suit him perfectly for a venue like Memorial Park. He's also gained an average of 3.4 strokes putting per event throughout his last four starts. --Bryce Danielson
This is a tricky week. I'm not sure anyone wants to burn Scheffler or McIlroy here. After that, the tournament is completely wide open. Thompson is in the next tier. He hasn't been great in 2025 but he's coming off a top-10 at THE PLAYERS and was T13 in another Signature Event, the Genesis Invitational at uber-long Torrey Pines. Importantly, Thompson is ranked 21st on Tour in SG: Around-the-Green, a key metric at Memorial Park. --Len Hochberg
Texas Children's Houston Open: One and Done Fades
I could see Thompson being one of the more popular choices this week considering he had a solid T21 here last year and is coming off a T10 at The PLAYERS. However, I'd prefer to save him for a venue where ball striking is at more of a premium. Thompson has been shaky on the greens this year, which is not ideal with putting being a key metric this week. --Ryan Pohle
Let's see if we can get a winner two weeks in a row -- kidding of course. McIlroy certainly could wind up in the winner's circle with his game being exactly where it needs to be, but I'm wondering where his head is at. As his final tune-up before the Masters, I have to imagine he will be peaking ahead a bit. Now, is he good enough to win while having an eye on the future? Of course, but it's not likely. Beyond that, you shouldn't burn McIlroy in a non-Signature Event or a major. He's too big of a chip to use outside the biggest purses. --Greg Vara
I feel like normally this would line up to be a pretty good week to take a guy like Pendrith, but his short game and putting numbers of late has been shockingly horrible. He had a good putting week at TPC Sawgrass, but apart from that his last four starts have seen -2.32, -1.36 and -1.10 strokes putting per round and -0.61, -1.94, -0.72 and -0.72 strokes around the greens per round. Kinda crazy considering prior to that he had finished top-25 in 17-of-21 starts. Hopefully that form comes back because the last month or so has been quite disappointing. --Ryan Andrade
Rai's ball striking has been great since a fourth-place effort at the Mexico Open, and I think he plays well again this week at Memorial Park where he's rattled off three straight top-20s, but for someone inching toward the 30-percent owned mark, I'd want more than a sub-four percent implied probability to win. He's fine chalk in the smallest of OAD pool sizes where separating from the field is easier and something like a T20 is more rewarding, but I'd otherwise rather target a popular Rai in formats like DFS cash games if you like him this week. --Bryce Danielson
McNealy is one of four players in the top 20 OWGR in the field yet there are 15 guys at the DraftKings Sportsbook with shorter odds. Don't know why but that's a concern. Maybe because McNealy is coming off consecutive missed cuts and has been horrendous Around-the-Green, ranked 164th on Tour. --Len Hochberg
