This article is part of our Golf One and Done Pool Expert Picks series.
Valspar Championship
After a signature event and THE PLAYERS Championship with purses of $20,000,000 and $25,000,000 respectively, we hit a the start of a three-week stretch before The Masters of "regular events" with purses under $10,000,000. That gives OAD players a bit more freedom to not feel like they have to use one of the top ranked players. Events like the Valspar Championship will typically see a little wider spread in the number of players used in your pool. You can take one of the betting favorites, but with recent winners like Brian Campbell and Joe Highsmith, you can also make up a lot of ground going against the grain.
Course Tidbits
- Course: Innisbrook Resort - Copperhead Course (7,352 yards, par 71)
- Location: Palm Harbor, Florida
- Purse: $8.7 million ($1.566 million to winner)
- Defending Champion: Peter Malnati (-12)
- Average Winning Score Last 5 Tournaments: -12.8
The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a unique course compared to the other Tour venues in Florida. There is a lot less water to contend with and there is a lot more elevation changes. PGA National, Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass are known for having a lot of big numbers with water balls and being extremely flat. Innisbrook will feel like a completely different state to these players.
The Copperhead Course has some of the narrowest fairways on Tour, and players will have to be able to carve the ball in both directions off the tees to find the short grass. The thick rough around this course makes it extremely different to give yourself a good birdie look with an errant tee shot. This par 71 features five par-3s, all of which play quite difficult, and only further emphasizes the importance of quality iron play. Innisbrook is typically pretty stingy in the scoring department, and likely will be even more so this week with some early high winds up that could reach up over 30 mph at points during the first two rounds. It could be more of a scrambling type of week than one of the dart-throwing variety.
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Valspar Championship: One and Done Picks
This pick is based on how he played down the stretch this past week and Glover's propensity to get hot for short stretches. His track record here is long, but there really isn't anything there that that would indicate a win is coming, yet the way he fought back on Sunday makes me think that he's locked-in right now and ready to make a little run. I also like the way he's played against strong fields this year and while this field is not comparable to the past two weeks, it's certainly good enough to get the best out of Glover this week. --Greg Vara
Hojgaard could pay off in a big way if he's at the top of the leaderboard, as I don't think many people will use him here. This will be his debut at the event, but we saw Cameron Young finish runner-up in his first time at Innisbrook last year and Hojgaard has the benefit of the early-late wave which looks to be an advantage this week with weather expected Thursday afternoon. He posted a top-10 in Mexico last month and was a solid T18 at PGA National, so we know he can play well on a difficult Florida course. --Ryan Pohle
No matter who you pick this week, make sure you are taking someone in the AM/PM wave as it looks like the wind forecast will give a massive advantage to that side of the draw. I'm going with one of the first guys off on Thursday morning who had his T2-T13-T13-T6-4th streak end with a disappointing missed cut at THE PLAYERS with a short miss putt on 17 last Friday. Kim is still doing very well all the way through the bag, and going to this non-big money event gives you a lot of options to zig when others zag. --Ryan Andrade
Not only did Straka luck out with his placement in the AM/PM split, but he's also one of the best iron players in the world right now as he ranks third on Tour in proximity this season. I'm not worried about his lack of quality course history at a volatile venue like the Copperhead Course, but your competitors might be, despite only Fleetwood landing on a shorter outright number than Straka at many shops as of Wednesday. --Bryce Danielson
Straka has been one of the biggest surprises on Tour in the early part of 2025, adding a tie for 14th last week at Sawgrass. It's tough to go with a guy who's already won this year. And he surely will be a popular play. But if you were drawing up a blueprint on how to play Copperhead, with its narrow fairways and tight scoring, someone ranked top-10 in both SG: Approach and bogey avoidance and 11th in driving accuracy would be a pretty good way to go. Plus, Straka is on the right side of the draw, early-late, with the wind forecast to be strongest later Thursday into Friday. --Len Hochberg
Valspar Championship: One and Done Fades
As someone who really needs Hovland to start playing well for one of salary cap teams I can say with complete confidence that I don't think a turnaround is coming soon. Perhaps that's just the pessimist in me, but it looks like Hovland is just lost right now. He did battle back with a solid 68 after opening The PLAYERS with an 80, but I doubt that means he's ready to contend just yet. Hopefully he makes more strides this week so he can once again be a factor sometime soon, but expecting anything from him this week is a bit foolish. --Greg Vara
Schauffele's strong course history here that includes a T12 in his debut in 2022 and a top-5 last year may have people thinking that this is the week that he gets going, but I think it's better to wait until we see some more form. He's made the cut in both events since his injury return but was spraying it off the tee last week and that's not a good recipe for success around Copperhead. I will likely wait until the summer to use Schauffele. --Ryan Pohle
Elite iron player and elite short game. Seems like a good fit for the Copperhead Course, so no surprise Thomas has a great record at this venue. But he finds himself on the wrong side of the draw, and despite the 62 he shot last week, Thomas finished outside the top-30 for the second straight week in Florida. He will also be arriving to Palm Harbor late in the week after helping Atlanta Drive to the TGL Finals on Tuesday night. They'll be plenty of other big money events down the road to use Thomas at where things line up a little better for him. --Ryan Andrade
I like Conners this week in other formats where you can take better advantage of risk and value, such as a 35/1 outright bet after his odds tanked from simply drawing a spot in the windier PM/AM wave, but not as a chalky OAD selection if he's going to approach the 20-percent picked mark when a heavier favorite on the AM/PM side like Straka potentially comes in around 10 percent. --Bryce Danielson
Yeah, I gave myself a layup. Not only has Hovland been lost on the course all season, having missed his past three cuts, two of them in Florida, he's on the wrong side of the draw, playing late early. Hovland is ranked 174th in SG: Around-the-Green and 169th in SG: Putting, which is a big reason why he's 160th in bogey avoidance. Yikes. --Len Hochberg
