Read The Line Betting Breakdown: Butterfield Bermuda Championship

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2023 Butterfield Bermuda Championship: Coastal Characteristics

The Butterfield Bermuda Championship is the penultimate event of the FedExCup Fall's seven-tournament run. Last week, the PGA TOUR annihilated scoring records on Tiger's course in Mexico and now they head across the continental United States to another coastal course, Port Royal Golf Course. The host venue is on the island of Bermuda, and many will remember the PGA Grand Slam of Golf. The four major winners played a season ending cash grab at Port Royal from 2009-2014.

When Brian Gay is your lock placement bet of the week, you're struggling to build a deep field. Of the 132 players in the field, only 11 are ranked in the top 100 in the OWGR. I will say this much, outside of Adam Scott, those who are here will be focused on their FedEx Cup points. Much is still up for grabs as the "Next Ten" (51-60) get in two signature events next season (Pebble Beach, Riviera), and those inside the top 125 will earn their TOUR card for 2024.

The field is competing for more than just $6.5 million dollars ($1.17M for first). The winner gets 500 points and a trip to the Masters. As we saw last week in Cabo, a simple top 10 at this point can secure your status for next year. Three of the four past champions are present. Last year, Seamus Power won with a 19 under par total. The wind was calm enough to allow the field to get some scoring done. That's the weather key this week. If the wind remains in the mid-teens, these guys can score and get to the high teens under par.

There's a significant chance of a storm coming on Sunday and if that's the case, get as much scoring done by Saturday as you can. Then hold on Sunday much like Lucas Herbert did in 2021 to win. Temperatures are forecasted in the mid-70s all four days and if the rain comes, it will be significant on Sunday. In four editions of the Butterfield, the average pre-tournament odds for the winner are +9000. Once again Gay isn't coming in at the top of the odds board!

Port Royal Golf Course has always been a stern test of wedge accuracy and Bermudagrass putting. PRGC is short by PGA Tour standards. With a par of 71, the scorecard only stretches to 6,828 yards.

• Eight of the par 4s measure under 415 yards.
• The average par 4 length is only 402 yards!
• All three par 5s are reachable and have higher than a 35% birdie rate.
• The long par 3s (8, 13, 16) are the three toughest holes relative to par on the course.
• Holes 13 -16 play seven tenths (.69) of a shot over par, the toughest stretch on the course.

The first seven holes are where most of the scoring takes place. They are routed away from the water and somewhat protected from the elements. If a player wants to go low, they should get started right away. Overall, the course design will make you dizzy. No two holes play in the same direction back-to-back. Therefore, on every hole, for every single shot, you are constantly managing the wind and lie. Eleven of the holes have a significant elevation change to incorporate into your decision making. Outside of the wind, Port Royal does have some interesting challenges to catch your attention.

• Every green complex is dotted with bunkers. All eighteen of them.
• All fourteen of the tee shots face bunkers as well.
• Seven holes have water in play and again the closing stretch of holes 14-18 are all unprotected from the wind.

Even though Port Royal is a tough test in the wind, you can score here especially in the opening stretch. You'll need to accumulate about twenty birdies to get in the mid-teens come Sunday afternoon. Birdie or better statistics and creating opportunities are important. When calm, Brendon Todd won here with a 24 under the total. It is a nice mix of paradise and pain. Approach shots stretch from the mid 200s on the longer par 3s to flip wedges on the short par 4s. That balance alongside controlling contact and trajectory will dictate our contenders.

2023 Butterfield Bermuda Championship: Putting - Wedge - Bermuda Triangle

Look at the past champions: Todd, Gay, Herbert and Power. Their path to success was ultimately simple. Find the fairway, wedge it close, and putt the lights out. Historically, players have only managed to hit 54 percent of the fairways. The Tour average is 62 percent. The first key to contention is solid driving. Much like The Sony in Hawaii or RBC in Hilton Head, I love the good drives gained stat on the island. When you miss the fairway, how close are your misses. It really doesn't matter if you are long or short, just get it in position to attack these hole locations with your scoring clubs.

The crucial approach shots for scoring are short. Most get distracted by the par 3s over 215 yards and the reachable par 5s. They will take a long iron or two to remain competitive. I'm focused on the wedge game. Six of the par 4s are under 400 yards. Those are pitch shots for the second swing. Elite wedge players score at Port Royal. Between all of the elevation changes and green quadrants, you have to be accurate. I referenced all PGA TOUR players are good wedge players, but not all are great. Our list below can get the job done from inside 125 yards.

The prevailing wind comes out of the south at PRGC. This means eight of the holes play into the wind. In the closing of the back nine, players will be tested with several cross and downwind conditions. Trajectory control isn't a statistic. You must know who plays well in the wind. Managing the height of a five-iron isn't nearly as much of a skill as doing it with your wedge. We know the recipe to score, so alongside a great short game I want players with spin and trajectory control alongside accuracy in the wedge game.

If the wind gets sketchy, there's a bunch of sand at Port Royal that can come into play. Unfortunately, it is not the pleasant pink beach sand. Rather it comes in the form of penalty areas around all the landing zones. The course has more than forty fairway bunkers and another forty-four of the greenside variety. Sand will play a role come Sunday if we get some weather or maybe even sooner. Those four past champions are also solid short-game players.

With 11 par 4s averaging just over 400 yards, par 4 scoring is a key analytic to consider. Again, don't be distracted by the 3s. The contenders will make their pars and birdie the par 5s. The 4s are where the field can differentiate themselves with those wedges and the PUTTER. Look again at the list of past champions and their contenders. Putting on Bermudagrass is the ultimate skill for the Butterfield. In Mexico, I made a big deal about green size, and Port Royal's putting surfaces are almost as big. Players must knock it close on approach to make putts on these grainy greens.

The average cutline in four championships is -1.75 under par. Based upon the weather for the first 36 holes, it will probably be twice that (-4). Much like each round, you'll need a good start on Thursday and Friday to survive and make the weekend. A solid BoB% performance is needed just like last week. Fourteen holes at Port Royal have a birdie rate over 15%. With only eight holes possessing a bogey rate over 15 percent it is time to take dead aim. Let's be honest, when isn't it time to go low on the PGA TOUR. It just becomes a matter of how you do it? This week, sharpen those wedges, and hole some putts, and you won't come up short in Bermuda.

2023 Butterfield Bermuda Championship: Outright Winners

Brendon Todd (+2000)

If the Bermuda Triangle created the perfect golfer for this tournament, it would be Todd. The 2019 winner and tournament record holder (-24) is an incredible putter. Combined with an elite wedge game, and one can quickly see why he excels on short positional courses. Todd's last tournament was the Fortinet where he gained two strokes on approach and over nine strokes with his flatstick finishing well inside the top 10. Brendon is also ranked top 5 in the field for par 4 scoring, BoB%, and short game.

Taylor Pendrith (+2500)

In 2021, Pendrith finished fifth at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. I loved him last week in Mexico and he started slow firing an even par 72 in round one. He finished the tournament 18 under par! The putter is hot and so is Pendrith's ball striking. Incredibly long, he'll have an advantage off the tee and in the windy conditions with his ball speed. I love this pick in bad weather. In his last five starts, he has gained three strokes against the field SG:Total. This fall he finished third at the Shriners and fifteenth last week.

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