This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
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2024 Hero World Challenge: Still "the needle?"
Is Tiger Woods losing his touch? The gifted GOAT of modern golf had the unique ability to wave his wand (or wedge) and make magic happen. Lately, the 15-time major champion is struggling to just make life's weekend cut. A couple months ago when the field was announced for the Hero World Challenge, I wondered why some of the world's best have chosen to skip the December date. I realize the OWGR adjusts every year and that creates some changes, but the actual field continues to trend weaker. The average world ranking of the field in 2022 was 15. The average rose to 18 in 2023 and crossed over 20 in 2024.
Forget the framework deal, where's Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Hideki Matsuyama? In reality, this event may just not matter, but I notice these things. In 2009, the first-place prize was $1.35 million. The current winner's check gets cut for $1 million. With all of this talk about money in golf, is Tiger losing some of his "pull?" Bryson DeChambeau could have made 10x that on his hole in one challenge if he chose to sell it. Fast forward to January. Are you ready to watch the TGL? The organizers of that league didn't even roll out T Dubs until week two! I'm far from believing Tiger has lost much of his audience, but his connection to the current crop of young stars... well that may need some "framework" of its own.
2024 Hero World Challenge: Island hopping continues
The Hero World Challenge moved to the Albany Resort (New Providence, Bahamas) in 2015. Designed by Ernie Els (2010), this sandy setting can create some striking images. In those eight editions (we skipped 2020), there have been three course rookies that have won. Eight rookies are in the field and each of them has exceeded expectations in 2024. Combined with 12 returning players including defending champion Scottie Scheffler, we have an interesting cast of competitors. The par 72 scorecard is unique. There are five par 3s and five par 5s for the field to face. Three of each on the front nine. Eight par 4s complete the layout stretching 7,449 yards.
Our weather looks favorable. The forecast calls for temperatures in the high 70s and not much wind. It should blow around 10-12 mph with gusts getting into the high teens. Wind is the only real defense of the property. With five par 5s these guys can go low. The average winning score over the past eight trips to Albany is 19-under-par. Oddly enough, Albany has never led to a playoff. All eight winners took home the trophy after 72 holes. The field consists of 20 players competing for a $5 million dollar purse.
Albany lists 52 bunkers on the GCSAA report, but that can be terribly misleading. The property is almost all sandy dunes. Go outside the green landing areas and you will be in trouble. Even Scheffler had six bogeys last year. The unpredictability of those dunes creates some incredible viewer drama and player disdain. We will see it a bunch this week for those who miss the 45 acres of fairway. The greens are pretty small at 4,500 sq/ft and seem to play even smaller. Between the wind and run-off edges, players will be chipping frequently. The remaining surfaces other than the sand and water are all Bermudagrass.
Fourteen holes have a birdie rate over 15% and only three with a bogey rate over that same value. Watch the par 3s and the four par 4s over 470 and attack the rest. Scottie finished at 20 under and made six bogeys. Much like the other fall events, this is another go low or go home week. One thing to note, on approach 64% of your iron shots will come from over 175 yards. Your last five winners are Scheffler, Viktor Hovland (2), Henrik Stenson and Jon Rahm. Those four can launch it from long range accurately.
Just in case the dunes weren't enough of a deterrent, there are five holes with water in play. This is a fun course to watch the best in the world compete. A good portion of these guys haven't played since the Presidents Cup. Will Scottie, Patrick, and Wyndham be ready against a few who have played on the DP World Tour or the FedEx Fall? It didn't seem to shake Scheffler last year and I believe the same for this edition. These guys live a stop and go existence. If a player's ability matches Albany, I'm in. It would be nice to have seen them recently, but this is what the TOUR has currently created.
2024 Hero World Challenge: Around the green(s)
Eight years sounds like a decent amount of history for one venue, but when you consider the field is 20 players (or less) each year, the archives don't amount to much. Let's just start with the fact our betting favorite is Scheffler at +220. We'll need to get creative when it comes to betting Scottie this week. When we start to mention what works around Albany, Scheffler does it all and then some. He won seven times in 2024 and led (like) 50+ statistical categories on the PGA TOUR. Not kidding, he was ranked first in all of them. Ten more years of the same prolific production and he'll be close to what our tournament host has accomplished.
Digging through the course design and analytic minutia, I did find a couple of interesting edges the previous winners have used to capture the tiger trophy. Nine of the top 10 players on last year's leaderboard were also in the top 10 for strokes gained around the green. I realize it is a very limited field, but that was the largest correlation of top finishers to any of the four main strokes gained categories. Grainy lies around these greens are one of the most difficult challenges of this course design. Players who can preserve par, or scramble on the par 5s from close range to score will separate from the field. There aren't many weeks where 20 under wins AND you need to pay attention to short game. This key will be the winning difference on your betting card.
Hovland won in 2021 and 2022. At the time, he was one of the best long iron players in the game. Remember what I mentioned earlier, 64% of approach shots will be played from over 175 yards. Successfully deciding who will win in this tight field will require understanding exactly what it takes to excel at Albany. A few long par 4s, par 3s, and those par 5s will require excellent long range accuracy. A great wedge game won't hurt, but that won't differentiate you. The lowest ranked player in the field is Sepp Straka (#39). All 20 of these players are elite TOUR level wedge players. Much like Scottie, Viktor, and Tiger for that matter, a great long iron game makes a big difference.
Bermudagrass putting is another necessary skill. Making birdies is great, but the real key around Albany is avoiding the dreaded 3-putt. These greens aren't huge, but they have some crazy shelves and tiers. Putting between those areas can leave no option but a six or eight footer in return. Approach accuracy leads to fewer putts, but history succinctly shows us that Albany is one of those places where lowering your total number of putts puts you in contention. I also might add based upon my own experiences at Albany that these island Bermuda greens are some of the grainiest they see all year on TOUR.
A little extra length off the tee is helpful. Players who have great ball speed also tend to perform. With five par 5s, hitting those green complexes in two is a huge advantage. The closer you are off the tee, the better. Looking at the past champions, we are talking about some of the longest (and best) drivers on the PGA TOUR at the time; Bubba Watson, Rahm, Matsuyama, Stenson, Scheffler, and Hovland. Length also becomes an advantage on approach. Hitting a seven iron into a 200 yard par 3 is easier than launching a five.
I'm going to focus on the basics this week. With so many scoring chances, I like guys who can present these skills and score. My final specific skill is BoB%. Based upon the current wind forecast you'll need to get past 20 under par. Even though all of these players are inside the top 40 in the OWGR, some are just simply better at making birdies. Catch one of those guys on a hot week and we just might have a chance to supplant Scheffler.
2024 Hero World Challenge: Outright Winners
Patrick Cantlay (+1200)
The second best player in this field is Cantlay.
- Cantlay is ranked in the top 7 in this field for approach, around the green skill, and putting (Bermudagrass).
- Patrick finished fifth at Albany in 2018 and has competed here twice.
- Ranked seventh in driving distance, Cantlay is first in the field for par 5 scoring over 600 yards.
Sam Burns (+1600)
Burns ranked fourth on the PGA TOUR for BoB% in 2024. He makes a ton of birdies and ranked first in Bermuda putting.
- Based upon the forecast, you will need sub-par scores, Burns might be the only player that can match Scheffler.
- Leading up to the Presidents Cup, Burns had four straight top 12 results.
- Sam is first in the field for par 3 scoring (175-200) and par 4 scoring (450-500).
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