Read The Line Betting Breakdown: Shriners Children's Open

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2023 Shriners Children's Open: What Happens in Vegas...

LAS VEGAS, NV - Since when did Las Vegas become the center of the sporting world? Monday Night Football kicked off Shriners Children's Open week at TPC Summerlin. Following the tournament Vegas is going to host NASCAR next weekend. The simple reason all these events are coming to Vegas in the fall is the weather. The forecast for the tournament is picture perfect. Temperatures will reside in the high 80s low 90s Thursday through Sunday, no wind is predicted, and of course this is the desert so leave the umbrella at home.

Every year since 2008, the PGA TOUR has been coming to TPC Summerlin for their Las Vegas event. The FedEx Cup Fall series continues with the third of seven autumn tournaments. Sanderson Farms did not disappoint with a five-player sudden death playoff. Congrats to Luke List and all his backers for a nice +5000 win.

Las Vegas is known for extreme highs and lows. Low scoring is where the Shriners starts. The average winning score over the past five years is 23 under par. Go back a full decade and the number drops to 20 under par. Longshots sometimes win in Vegas and when you compare the pre-tournament odds of the winners, we get polar opposites. Of the last ten champions, five held pre-tourney odds of +3300 or less. Conversely, the other five all had odds greater than +7000.

Four winners of the last ten came in with pre-tournament odds greater than +22500. Speaking of long odds, Lexi Thompson received a sponsor's exemption. She will be the seventh woman to play in a PGA TOUR event. Her odds of winning are +250000 (2500-1)! The timing of her exemption is interesting. Lexi is nearing the end of her worst season as a professional. She's missed eight cuts in 12 events and her scoring average is ranked one hundred and fifth on tour.

The remainder of the 132-person field is once again light in the OWGR. Tom Kim, the defending champion, is the only male player ranked under top 20 in the world. The top 65 and ties play the weekend for $8.4 million dollars and a first-place check of $1.512 million. TPC Summerlin is a unique test. The par 71 scorecard measures 7,255 yards. That's short by TOUR standards and at 2,000 feet above sea level, the course gets even shorter!

Nine of the 11 par 4s are under 450 yards in length. The average par 3 is 200 yards and the three par 5s are reachable in two. Players who contend here can score on par 4s. Recent champions like Kim, Webb Simpson, and Kevin Na truly depict what it takes to grab the trophy. Although don't be fooled, Bryson DeChambeau and Patrick Cantlay have had great success as well. Even Tiger Woods had his first win in Las Vegas.

Fourteen holes have a birdie rate over 15 percent. That means 20 or more players per round are birdieing the hole. In comparison, only four holes have a bogey rate over 15 percent. Kim's total last year (-24) tied the tournament record. Scoring conditions are perfect on the grounds. Players had a nice warmup last week at the Country Club of Jackson, another birdie-fest layout.

I expect a cutline in the four under par range. Lexi will need to strike it solid. Even at elevation, this is still going to be a long test for her. She and the rest of the field will need to avoid the 92 bunkers throughout and a couple of well-placed penalty areas. Each of the three finishing holes has water to contend with. Who could forget Cantlay's shot in the water on 18 last year. Hats off to the rest of the field for coming to sin city. We saw an incredible finish in Mississippi on Sunday, and I expect another fantastic final round. I doubt Lexi will be in it, but there's four names below I'm sure will be.

2023 Shriners Children's Open: Live Under Par

Desert golf is a thing. I'm not 100 percent sure why, but certain players play well in Arizona, Nevada, and the Palm Desert of California. Each course has dry air, firm conditions, and well-defined targets. Then again so do most courses these guys play throughout the season. Be that as it may, when it comes to handicapping the Shriners, it is a consideration even more than course history.

Success at Summerlin starts off the tee. Accurate drivers give themselves opportunities. The fairways are generous but miss them and the desert is soon to follow. TPC Summerlin does not allow much room for error when you miss the fairway or a green. Martin Laird, Kevin Na, Webb Simpson, Patrick Cantlay, Bryson DeChambeau are all accurate drivers of the golf ball. The analytics can be deceiving. The winners don't gain a ton of strokes on the field with their driver but lose strokes and you'll miss the cut.

The approach game comes down to wedges on par-4s and long irons on par-5s. The greens at TPC Summerlin are large. They average 7,400 sq/ft. Covered in Bentgrass, the challenge is to hit the correct section. Proximity is important in creating those birdie looks. Remember the breakdown to finish 20 under par. Each player will need 32+ opportunities inside 25 feet. Convert 65 percent of those chances and you get to 20+ under par.

Scoring on the par 5s is imperative. There are only three per round and they average a 46 percent birdie rate. Our winners gain an average of five strokes on the field with their approach game. That's also important because missing those large greens comes with a heavy price. TPC Summerlin is one of the toughest around the green courses on the PGA TOUR. Don't derail a good scoring round with an average pitch or chip. Bogey avoidance is a pivotal factor even for this scoring showdown.

List stole the show on Sunday in the playoff with his putter. Chances are another player will do the same at Summerlin. The largest gains annually by the leaders are with the flatstick. The last five champions have gained an average of six strokes on the greens. Walking around this week you can easily see why. If you can hit the correct section of the green your putt will be relatively flat. If you are putting well, you can make a bunch of them.

Filling out my research and watching the players during their practice rounds, I'm also favoring good drives gained (how little you miss the fairway), birdies gained on the field, Birdie or Better Percentage, par-4 scoring, and pure ball striking. This is a "flushers" golf course. The last 10 winners have gained nearly nine strokes T2G against the field. Only one winner in the last ten gained less than six strokes T2G and he won with his putter.

The fall has a little buzz out here. I know it pales in comparison to Saturday and Sunday football, but the guys are fired up. I see and feel a serious sense of urgency. Middle tier players won signature events last year. That's a life changing event. Positioning yourself for 2024 is important and there are only five events left including this week. I think the cut will be low and the tournament record will be challenged. Conditions are excellent and I know these four players have the game required to go all-in and win.

2023 Shriners Children's Open: Outright Winners

Ludvig Aberg (+1200)

I faded Aberg last week to win, and he proved worthy of our attention. The Swedish superstar lost in a 5-man playoff. Aberg gained over 12 strokes T2G at CC of Jackson. Take that level of ball striking and fast forward to a course perfectly suited to his game. He's ranked second in the field for BoB% and par-4 scoring. The short game is ranked top-5, and his putter gained 1.46 strokes last week. My biggest intangible with this kid is the amount of time he spent with great players at the Ryder Cup. I think a little Viktor rubbed off on him and he's about to take the next step.

Cam Davis (+2200)

Four weeks ago, Davis finished third at the Fortinet. Davis had a very strong close to the 2023 FedEx Cup season. His ball striking is ranked third T2G and his short game almost equally as good. His ability off the tee to attack a golf course sets him apart from most of his competitors. Fifth in the field from 125-150 and eleventh in BoB%. Much like Aberg, the ceiling is very high this week. Over his last five starts, Davis is gaining on average six strokes total. The entire chart is green and that leads me to believe his wallet will soon be the same color.

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