Read The Line Betting Breakdown: The RSM Classic

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2024 The RSM Classic: What "The Kid" did

ST. SIMONS, GA

Prior to playing in the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, Rafael Campos missed 11 of his last 13 cuts. His pre-tournament odds were +30000 (300-1!) Campos is officially our fourteenth first-time winner on the PGA TOUR in 2024. Considering Scottie won every other event this season, 2024 has been a tale of two types of champions. All kidding aside, in 46 events, first-time winners (14) and Scottie (7) accounted for nearly 50% of the trophies on the PGA TOUR. Another first-time winner took place at the RSM Classic last year.

I'll never forget what I witnessed on the weekend one year ago. Ludvig Aberg shot 61-61 to win the RSM at 29 under par. One twenty-two in 36-holes! Aberg had 26 birdies, two eagles, and ONE bogey over 72-holes. Ludvig entered the week last year as the betting favorite at +1200. This year is his opening odds are +1000. We haven't seen The Kid since the Tour Championship in Atlanta. I guess he must be well rested..?

Record weekends aside, this is the final stop for the PGA TOUR in 2024. TOUR cards are on the line as the top 125 earn an exemption for 2025. All 19 players ranked from 122 to 140 are in the field. They are not the only ones competing for key spots. Seven guys inside the AON Top 10 (51-60) are here as well as seven from 61-70. That FedExCup Fall top 10 earns a spot in the AT&T Pro-am and Genesis Invitational which are both early season signature events.

2024 The RSM Classic: Golden isles

With so much on the line, I cannot think of a better venue for these guys. First of all, with two championship courses, we have 156 players in the field competing to make the cut (top 65 and ties). We will finally finish a 36-hole cut! The field will be split in half and each player will compete once on the Plantation and Seaside courses in rounds one and two. The weekend rounds will be played on the Seaside course. The purse has been reduced to $7.6 million (down from $8.4 million 2023) and the winner's check is worth $1.4 million. We are at the home of the Sea Island mafia, and they are representing this week. Fourteen players are in the field call the Georgia golden isle home.

This is the fifteenth RSM Classic and only Chris Kirk and Zach Johnson have competed in all of them. In 2015, tournament officials adopted the two-course rotation. What's the difference between the Plantation and Seaside courses at Sea Island; let's break it down.

• The Plantation Course was designed 1928 by Walter Travis and was renovated in 2019 by Sea Island's own Davis Love III. A par 72 layout (7,060 yards) the course exhibits 81 bunkers and 10 holes where water comes into play. This is definitely the easier of the two courses. We have four par 5s, and the par 3s as a group are shorter. Seven of the 10 par 4s are under 440 yards. The greens average about 6,100 sq/ft and are covered in Bermudagrass. This layout is lined with trees, but the lack of length doesn't create a huge need for driver. The biggest defense of these two courses is the wind and Plantation is far more protected. You only get one round here all week, make it a good one.
• The Seaside Course was designed by Harry Colt in 1929 and renovated by Tom Fazio in 1999. I have never been a huge Fazio fan, but I love this course. That's probably due to the location right along the St. Simons sound. With very few trees in play, this course can beat you up in the wind. A par 70 scorecard (7,005 yards) there are only two par 5s to take advantage of. Forty-seven bunkers don't really describe the amount of sand you will encounter. Seaside is built on a marsh. Thirteen holes have water in play and in-between the holes we have sandy waste areas. The greens are a little bigger on paper at 7,200 sq/ft, but that can be deceiving. They all seem to melt away on the edges creating less landing surface than it looks like. It's a beautiful scene that Åberg absolutely annihilated last year.

For those that love trends, seven of the nine winners since we went to two courses have started on Plantation. It makes sense, get hot early and never look back...

The average winning score over the past nine years since we started using two courses is 21 under par. These are two resort courses and unless the wind really blows, these guys will go nuclear on the leaderboard. The cutline average for the last five years is four under par. Guys are going to get after this week and the weather will allow them to do so. The past two days have been beautiful. Temperatures in the high 70s and a comfortable breeze. We expect a front to roll in this afternoon with some precipitation. Not enough to cause alarm, but some to soften the surfaces and make them more receptive. Couple that with a temperature drop and this place will be ripe for the picking.

We will see some wind in the afternoon, but with two courses for the first two days, nobody plays late. The wind calms down over the weekend and it is race to 24 under par. Sure it will be a little cool in the morning, but players don't have to go off at the crack of dawn either. The situation is set up for scoring and let's face it, these guys have to get after it. Campos was 19 under par last week in a windstorm over the weekend. Every guy around the top 125 qualifying number is in the field. Watching the practice sessions, you can easily tell who lives here, has their card, and who is battling for their livelihood.

This is the last year to get in at 125. More changes are coming and getting your TOUR card before that happens can be crucial to catching a "winning" break. Look at Campos, that guy had more frequent flyer miles on a Friday than a company executive. My observations on site also coincide with scoring. There is little to no rough and the fairways are in perfect condition. Ten players in the field are in the top 50 of the OWGR. That's the highest number we have seen all fall! Our last chance to dance in 2024, let's see who our on-site eyes favor this week in the low country.

2024 The RSM Classic: Target practice

Strokes gained can be very deceiving at times. Betting pundits constantly look for huge edges. When the numbers don't represent large gains, they look elsewhere. I have played these courses over 20 times (each) and now watched the RSM live for a couple years. I can say without a shadow of a doubt, this is an iron contest. Players may win with their putter, but the true skill to keep you in contention is approach play. These courses are short, and if you can hit your irons close, Ludvig showed us what is possible. Unlike many of the fall venues, Sea Island does let you use your long irons. It only happens on the par 3s and 5s, but they can definitely give you an edge. Eight of the last 10 winners saw their largest proximity gains from over 200 yards.

The wedges and scoring irons need to be on point. Walking with players, it seems like every par 4 approach is with a wedge. As a result, this venue just is not good for some players. With a starting point of 156 players in the field, we will have plenty of great wedge wizards to choose from. So how do we separate them, consider their long iron acumen as well. ;-) Seaside is a beautiful combination of driving angles and raised targets. Each of the green surfaces sit above the player's feet on approach. Not all of them, but a large majority. As such, you really have to control spin and trajectory and great wedge players can do that.

The driver can also add an edge if you are long and ACCURATE. If you're just long, then length is not always your ally. The way Åberg attacked these courses with the driver last year may change how the field plans to play the courses going forward. I'm adding some OTT skill to my outright observations. Where most used to lay up, Ludvig showed everyone a new alternative approach. Once that happens you cannot hang back anymore. The field will be forced to attack in order to keep up. After all, he is here and I'm sure he plans to play the exact same way!

Bermudagrass putting is a positive asset. Putting ultimately determined our winner last week and it will happen again on Sunday at St. Simons. Oddly enough, I don't give the Sea Island locals an edge in this category. Touring professionals don't play nearly as much golf at home as fans believe they do. In many cases they practice an infinite amount, but they don't sit and study the surfaces. If anything, most of these guys are hosting other players, caddies, wives, etc. and they are busy being a bed and breakfast. Sea Island sings at night with the sound of crackling Solo Stoves and the many hits of Morgan Wallen.

Seven of the last 10 winners gained over 4.5 strokes on the field putting. That's a substantial amount given the conditions can range from freezing wind and beanies to golf shirts. Converting birdie opportunities on this collection of par 4s also makes a difference. The last 10 winners have gained an average of 10 strokes on the field with their par 4 performance. Two years ago, Adam Svensson won at 19 under par. He made 14 birdies on par 4s and played them at 12 under for the week. Watch for the guys who can really score on mid-range 4s. Much like Åberg a year ago, that is really where the score adds up.

Sub-par scores are a theme throughout this narrative. Going low is a skill and one that not all PGA TOUR professionals possess. It sounds simple enough but averaging 6 birdies a day is elite status. Many players can do that part, but what about the bogeys. There's a famous saying out here, "if you want to keep your card, you don't need more birdies. You need to eliminate the bogeys." That mindset makes a difference and gives us a short list of players who can score consistently across four rounds. When comparing competitors in shoot-outs, make sure you not only account for the birdies, but the ability to avoid mistakes as well.

2024 The RSM Classic: Outright Winners

Mackenzie Hughes (+4000)

Both of Hughes' PGA TOUR wins have happened in the fall.

• Hughes has finished runner-up in two of his last three RSM starts. He also won in 2016.
• Mac is a top two putter in this field. He's gaining an average of four strokes per start with his flatstick over the last five.
• Hughes has played well this fall, fourth at the Procore and eighth at the Sanderson.
• He shot 17 under on the weekend last year.

Eric Cole (+4000)

All the content kings are forgetting about Cole.

• The last time we saw Cole he finished sixth at the ZOZO Championship.
• Eric finished third at RSM last year.
• Cole is eighth in the field in putting on Bermudagrass and thirteenth on approach.
• Eric gained six strokes on the field putting last year at Sea Island.
• Cole is fourth in the field for opportunities gained and seventh in proximity. He creates birdie chances!

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