This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
The PGA Tour heads to Napa, Calif., this week as some big names tee it up for this first time this season. The presence of big names doesn't really alter the landscape much during the fall season as things are just plain different this time of year. Normally, the presence of Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama, Adam Scott, etc., would mean a big name is likely to win, but that's not how it works in fall.
Although there isn't much of an offseason in this sport, I have to imagine the guys at the top of their game, the ones who can afford to skip a majority of fall, use this time to truly unwind and make it into a true offseason. If that's the case, it's tough to get back into the right mindset when you decide to play a month or two into your extended vacation.
This week: Safeway Open – Silverado Country Club, Napa, Calif.
Last Year: Kevin Tway shot a final-round 71 on his way to a playoff victory over Ryan Moore and Brandt Snedeker.
FAVORITES
Justin Thomas (7-1)
He's the biggest name in the field, which means he should be favored, but there isn't much value in this price. We haven't seen Thomas in a while, which means we have no idea about his form. Thomas spent much of last season getting his game right after an injury, and it looks like he's ready to go this season.
The PGA Tour heads to Napa, Calif., this week as some big names tee it up for this first time this season. The presence of big names doesn't really alter the landscape much during the fall season as things are just plain different this time of year. Normally, the presence of Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama, Adam Scott, etc., would mean a big name is likely to win, but that's not how it works in fall.
Although there isn't much of an offseason in this sport, I have to imagine the guys at the top of their game, the ones who can afford to skip a majority of fall, use this time to truly unwind and make it into a true offseason. If that's the case, it's tough to get back into the right mindset when you decide to play a month or two into your extended vacation.
This week: Safeway Open – Silverado Country Club, Napa, Calif.
Last Year: Kevin Tway shot a final-round 71 on his way to a playoff victory over Ryan Moore and Brandt Snedeker.
FAVORITES
Justin Thomas (7-1)
He's the biggest name in the field, which means he should be favored, but there isn't much value in this price. We haven't seen Thomas in a while, which means we have no idea about his form. Thomas spent much of last season getting his game right after an injury, and it looks like he's ready to go this season. His two most recent starts here have resulted in top-10s.
Patrick Cantlay (10-1)
Much was expected of Cantlay last season, and he came through with flying colors. Cantlay took the next step in his career progression last season and now it's time to start thinking about winning a major. Major or not, he's proved to be a tough out every week he tees it up. It makes sense that he's the second-favorite this week. Cantlay's most recent start here resulted in a top-20.
Hideki Matsuyama (16-1)
Matsuyama is coming off a pretty solid season, but more is expected of him this year as he's now had a full season since his wrist injury. He should get off to a good start this season as he's generally fared well at this event. Matsuyama has two top-3s and a top-20 in his three starts at this event.
MID-TIER GOLFERS
Sungjae Im (25-1)
Im will be a popular pick this week as he's coming off a nice showing last week at the Sanderson Farms and played well at this event last year. Im, who posted a T4 at this event last year, is in top form, which should result in another top-5 this week and perhaps that long awaited first PGA Tour victory.
Byeong-Hun An (30-1)
An was right there with Im last week at the Sanderson Farms and like Im, he came up just short. Also like Im, An is still searching for his first PGA Tour win, though An has been at this a bit longer. Both of these guys should get a win at some point, and fall season is the perfect time to break through.
Collin Morikawa (30-1)
Call this a hunch, but I think Morikawa really needed some time off after the whirlwind start to his PGA Tour career last season. Morikawa turned pro in late June and played nearly every event until the end of the season. He won in late July, which meant he was eligible for the playoffs, and continued playing through the end of August. He had no time to soak in his victory, but now he's had that time and he should come out refreshed this week.
LONGSHOTS
Phil Mickelson (60-1)
I guess we'll have to get used to seeing Mickelson as a longshot as like everyone before him, his game is fading with age. That said, he still has enough in the tank to show up every now and then and this could be one of those spots. Mickelson has finished in the top-20 here in each of his last three starts, including a T3 in 2018.
Harris English (80-1)
I'll just go ahead and leave English in this spot until he either wins, or misses the cut. English has been on a roll this fall, with a T3 in his first start and a T6 last week. English has played well below expectations the last few years, but he's a solid player. It looks like he's found his old form and could be a factor on the PGA Tour again.
ONE AND DONE GOLFER
Highly Owned Pick: Sungjae Im - I thought Im would be highly owned last week, and you can bet he'll again he highly owned this week. You'll have a lot of opportunities to use Im this season, but this might be the best spot considering his current form.
Moderately Owned Pick: Byeong-Hun An - Guys like An and Im are the perfect kind of players to use this time of year because there's worry about using them too early, yet you know you'll get something out of them. An and Im should both be in the mix again this week and both are worth consideration in this format.
Lightly Owned Pick: Harris English - If anyone used English last week, I can only imagine they are pretty happy with his T6. It won't be as easy this week as the field is a lot more difficult, but English has the game to compete with the best players in the world, we just haven't seen it for a while.
Buyer Beware: Hideki Matsuyama - All things being equal, Matsuyama might be the best pick this week, but when you consider that he's such a good pick at the Waste Management event in February, it's hard to pull the trigger on him this early in the season. Factor in the general unpredictability of fall season and it's probably just best to wait on him.
Last Week: Scottie Scheffler - (T16) $110,550; Season - $239,925
This Week: Sungjae Im - It just feels like this is the spot for Im. There are big names in the field, but I don't want to burn any of them this week, and Im has more than enough fire power to win here. He's on a roll and I don't see anything worse than a top-10.
FANDUEL PICKS
High/Mid/Low: Sungjae Im ($11,000)/Chez Reavie ($10,400)/Martin Laird ($9,000)
SURVIVOR PICK
Last Week: Brian Harman (T14) - Streak - 2
This Week: Chez Reavie - Reavie has made the cut every year at this event since it switched to the current course in 2015 and that was before he was a super-stud. Seriously, Reavie is about as steady as they come on the PGA Tour and is a perfect pick for this format this week.
