Weekly PGA Preview: Charles Schwab Challenge

Weekly PGA Preview: Charles Schwab Challenge

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

Charles Schwab Challenge

Colonial Country Club
Fort Worth, TX

The PGA Tour heads to Fort Worth, TX this week, for another edition of the Charles Schwab Challenge .

Before we get to this week's event, a quick look back at the PGA Championship. To say that there were some things to talk about after this past week's PGA Championship would be an understatement. Let's start with the arrest of Scottie Scheffler, okay, so there's not much more to add to this one, just that it's still pretty amazing that something like this happened to probably the most unassuming guy on the PGA Tour and the best player on the planet, more on Scheffler later. After that we've got Xander Schauffele finally grabbing his first major, and just a week after losing yet another final round lead. It's hard to say what this does for Schauffele in regards to his future prospects at the majors. Will it open the floodgates? Maybe, but with Scheffler as a gatekeeper, can anyone really expect to win a lot of majors in the near future? Finally, we've got the age-old debate on whether majors should be as easy as what we saw this past week. I dare say, even for those in the "majors don't need to be super difficult" group, this past week was a bit of a farce. I don't mind seeing a handful of players go low, but nearly every single player on the weekend ended up under par. The main problem with a venue like Valhalla is that there's no danger lurking around the corner. When DeChambeau posted 20-under, it felt as if there was no drama left because at worst, Schauffele would end up in a playoff, and at best he'd win. That's because there was no trouble to be found down the stretch unless Schauffele did something stupid. I don't need the winner to be over par to be satisfied at a major, but I would like to see the leaders forced to make some tough decisions on a Sunday afternoon.                                                                       

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 2:00 PM ET Tuesday.                   

LAST TIME

Emiliano Grillo shot a final-round 68 on his way to a playoff victory over Adam Schenk.

FAVORITES

Scottie Scheffler (14-5) 

No need to grab the calculator, Scheffler is a smidge under 3-1 this week, which as we know is pretty crazy. Scheffler did not win this past week, but he did manage a top-10 after spending time in a jail cell on Friday. Perhaps this ordeal didn't sink in until Saturday as that's when he played himself out of contention, but the fact that he was able to play as well as he did was crazy. I think it's safe to say that his game is just fine and if he hadn't found himself in jail on Friday, he would have been in contention on Sunday. With that in mind, he certainly deserves a look this week, but I can't bring myself to make a bet on someone getting less than 3-1.  

Collin Morikawa (12-1)

The beauty of someone getting such short odds at the top of the chart is that everyone below him gets inflated odds. While Morikawa's odds aren't great this week, you have to factor in that the field isn't super strong. This is not a signature event, so while there are some big names at the top of the list, you only need to go a few more names before the talent drops off. Morikawa was in position to win entering Sunday, but he simply fell flat. He didn't play poorly, but he didn't play well either. He can win this week if Scheffler isn't on top of his game.    

Jordan Spieth (20-1)

There are two players at 20-1 this week, Spieth and Max Homa, but I'm giving a slight edge to Spieth because of his track record here and the location of this event. Spieth has historically played well in Texas, and this event is no exception. He's made the cut in 10 of 11 starts and he's finished in the top-10 eight of those times. Oddly enough, he missed the cut here this past year. Spieth may never be the guy we thought he was when he was gobbling up majors several years ago, but he's going to pop every now and then and this could be one of those weeks.                     

THE NEXT TIER

Tony Finau (28-1)

It's a strange set up this week as there are only eight players between 25-1 and 40-1. That's the drop off I referenced earlier and the effect of having a favorite that's less than 3-1. As for Finau, he didn't finish well this past week, but he was playing well leading into Sunday. His track record here is pretty strong, with 7/8 cuts made and two top-5s in his past five starts here.

Harris English (30-1)

If Scheffler is in the mix come Sunday, you're going to want someone who knows how to win and English fits that bill. English hasn't been at his best this season, but he's been good enough to make me think he can win this week if everything goes right. He's coming off a good showing this past week at the PGA Championship and his track record here is pretty solid. His best showing here came in 2016 when he finished runner-up.

Brian Harman (35-1)              

Did somebody say short course? Whenever we get a track like Colonial, which is among the shortest on the PGA Tour, Harman automatically comes to mind as he's definitely not the longest off the tee. Harman is quietly having another strong year, thanks mostly to his runner-up at THE PLAYERS, but he's yet to pick up a win since his breakthrough at the Open Championship this past year. This is a spot where he can win, against anyone, so 35-1 looks awfully enticing this week.       

LONG SHOTS

Tom Kim (50-1)      

If you had told me a year ago that Kim would be getting 50-1 odds in a non-signature event, I would have said you were crazy, but after a year's worth of lackluster play, here we are. Kim hasn't panned out as the superstar we all expected quite yet, but every now and then we see glimpses of what could be. We saw that during the opening round of the PGA Championship this past week when he posted a 65, and followed that with a 68, only to finish with a 73 on Saturday to take himself out of contention. One of these weeks he's going to get back on track and 50-1 seems like enough value to take a shot that it's this week.                      

Justin Rose (50-1)  

Rose was not trending in the right direction entering the PGA Championship, but he sure turned things around quickly and found himself just out of the top-5 by week's end. Rose doesn't have the game that's going to see him consistently in the top-10 every week, but he's still capable of making smaller runs. He appears to be locked-in right now and he's returning to a site where he's had a lot of success, including a win in 2018.                                                                                 

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Jordan Spieth - This is a not a signature event, so Scheffler is out of the mix, and Morikawa has too much value to use him this week, so that leaves Spieth, who is not someone that any OAD player needs to save for a signature event. Spieth has the track record here and he played well enough this past week at the PGA Championship to make me think he can make a run this week.                                                                                                                   

Moderately-Chosen Pick: Brian Harman - Don't let the odds fool you, even at 35-1, Harman is going to be a popular play this week because of his track record here. In fact, he might be pretty close to having the highest usage after all is said and done, so if you are looking to make up ground in your league, you might want to look elsewhere. If you are simply hoping to keep up, then Harman is a good choice.                                                                                                           

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Justin Rose - He's certainly a risky play because he's no longer a consistent force on the PGA Tour, but the combination of form and track record here is among the best in the field this week. I don't often encourage taking a longshot in the OAD format, but this might be a good week to do so.                                                                                                                    

Buyer Beware: Scottie Scheffler - This is a combination of a few things and before we get to that, I have to reiterate, this doesn't mean I think he'll play poorly this week, it just means that I don't think there is any value in taking him in a OAD format. Scheffler is coming off a crazy week by anyone's standards and although he righted the ship late in the week, we still could see some weird things occur on the course this week if he's not mentally right. This pick however is 95% backed by the fact that you can't use Scheffler in a non-signature event and there really aren't any other players that would make sense in this spot.                               

This Week: Justin Rose - I initially had Harman in this spot, but I decided that he's going to be too popular this week and I'm looking to make a move, so Rose it is. Keep in mind that this is a non-signature event, so even if Harman wins this week, you're not losing a ton of ground with this pick and if Rose hits, then you've made up some ground while not using a big name. Not that Harman is a big name, but he is someone that could be considered for a signature event, while Rose is not.

Previous Results

TournamentGolferResultEarningsRunning Total
PGA ChampionshipCameron SmithT63$25,202$10,651,326
Wells Fargo ChampionshipRory McIlroy1$3,600,000$10,626,124
CJ Cup Byron NelsonStephan JaegerT20$112,100$7,026,124
Zurich Classic of New OrleansNick Taylor10$122,375$6,914,024
RBC HeritageLudvig AbergT10$521,000$6,791,649
The MastersBrooks KoepkaT45$57,200$6,270,649
Valero Texas OpenCorey ConnersT25$67,735$6,213,449
Texas Children's Houston OpenJason DayMC$0$6,145,714
Valspar ChampionshipSam BurnsMC$0$6,145,714
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipScottie Scheffler1$4,500,000$6,145,714
Arnold Palmer Invitational pres. by MastercardWill ZalatorisT4$920,000$1,645,714
Cognizant Classic in The Palm BeachesEric ColeMC$0$725,714
Mexico Open at VidantaBrandon WuT13$145,125$725,714
The Genesis InvitationalMax HomaT16$329,000$580,589
WM Phoenix OpenWyndham ClarkT41$30,404$251,589
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AmJordan SpiethT39$70,125$221,185
Farmers Insurance OpenHarris EnglishT64$19,080$151,060
The American ExpressSungjae ImT25$63,980$131,980
Sony Open in HawaiiSahith TheegalaMC$0$68,000
The SentryTom KimT45$68,000$68,000

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range:  Jordan Spieth ($11,600)
Middle Range: Brian Harman ($10,300)
Lower Range: Mark Hubbard ($8,700)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Brian Harman - I wanted to use Spieth in this spot, but I used him earlier in the year. I also considered Morikawa, but he could have a major hangover after being in position to win entering the final round, only to fall flat. I landed on Harman, who has only missed the cut here in two of 11 starts and enters in good form.

Previous Results      

TournamentGolferStreak
PGA ChampionshipRory McIlroy6
CJ Cup Byron NelsonAlex Noren5
Zurich Classic of New OrleansNick Taylor4
The MastersJon Rahm3
Valero Texas OpenCorey Conners2
Texas Children's Houston OpenMackenzie Hughes1
Valspar ChampionshipSam Burns0
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipJustin Thomas0
Arnold Palmer Invitational pres. by MastercardCameron Young9
Cognizant Classic in The Palm BeachesShane Lowry8
Mexico Open at VidantaPatrick Rodgers7
The Genesis InvitationalSahith Theegala6
WM Phoenix OpenHideki Matsuyama5
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AmJordan Spieth4
Farmers Insurance OpenTony Finau3
The American ExpressSungjae Im2
Sony Open in HawaiiChris Kirk1

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Greg Vara
Vara is the lead golf writer at RotoWire. He was named the FSWA Golf Writer of the Year in 2005 and 2013. He also picks college football games against the spread in his "College Capper" article.
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