This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
Another week on the PGA Tour and another "up and comer" destined to win 20-plus events comes away with the win. This is starting to get out of hand.
Jon Rahm, who broke out on the PGA Tour last season, finally picked up his first win on the PGA Tour on Sunday. When I say finally, I mean, it's been almost a year as a regular on the PGA Tour and he hadn't even won yet. What was this guy doing that whole time?
This season began with Justin Thomas finding his top form and, as expected, the inflated accolades followed. Now it's time for the speculation on Rahm's potential, which, don't get me wrong, seems to be high, but if every young golfer who wins on the PGA Tour event is destined to win 20-plus events, well, we're going to have to add more events.
This isn't a knock on the players or even those who think these players are destined for a ton of success. It's just a numbers game, and the numbers, now more than ever, tell us that there are so many high-quality players on the PGA Tour, that a majority will fail to live up to lofty expectations simply because of the level of competition. For every Jon Rahm, there is a Jordan Spieth out there, determined to get his own piece of the pie. For every Justin Thomas, there is a Rory McIlroy out there, determined to gobble up every win he can. For
Another week on the PGA Tour and another "up and comer" destined to win 20-plus events comes away with the win. This is starting to get out of hand.
Jon Rahm, who broke out on the PGA Tour last season, finally picked up his first win on the PGA Tour on Sunday. When I say finally, I mean, it's been almost a year as a regular on the PGA Tour and he hadn't even won yet. What was this guy doing that whole time?
This season began with Justin Thomas finding his top form and, as expected, the inflated accolades followed. Now it's time for the speculation on Rahm's potential, which, don't get me wrong, seems to be high, but if every young golfer who wins on the PGA Tour event is destined to win 20-plus events, well, we're going to have to add more events.
This isn't a knock on the players or even those who think these players are destined for a ton of success. It's just a numbers game, and the numbers, now more than ever, tell us that there are so many high-quality players on the PGA Tour, that a majority will fail to live up to lofty expectations simply because of the level of competition. For every Jon Rahm, there is a Jordan Spieth out there, determined to get his own piece of the pie. For every Justin Thomas, there is a Rory McIlroy out there, determined to gobble up every win he can. For the next guy out there, there's a DJ and a Day and a Scott. The list now just goes on and on.
The Tiger era was great fun, but this era is as well, and it couldn't be more different. The lesson here is, the "next big thing," is likely to be the "next pretty-good thing," because it's all relative, and the competition is not what it used to be.
This week: Phoenix Open - TPC Scottsdale - Scottsdale, Ariz.
Last Year: Hideki Matsuyama shot a final-round 67 on his way to a playoff victory over Rickie Fowler.
PLAYERS TO CONSIDER
Hideki Matsuyama
If not for his sub-par effort last week, and I mean that in the figurative sense, Matsuyama would be as close to a lock as possible this week. His track record here is outstanding: In three starts, he has a win, a runner-up and a T4. Add to that, his form over the last six months and this appeared to be a sure thing. While his performance last week is a little troubling, Matsuyama is still the pick this week.
Jon Rahm
It's not always the best idea to take a young player off a big win, but Rahm seems to have the right mindset to take on a challenge like winning consecutive events on the PGA Tour. His T5 at this event in 2015 certainly helps the cause, as well. Remember, this event is a different beast; some guys handle the crowds well and some don't. Rahm showed he could play well in this atmosphere.
Bubba Watson
Lost in all the hype of the "new-new" generation is Bubba Watson. Watson had a relatively quiet 2016 season, but there's no reason to think he's ready to slow anytime soon. There will be better spots to use Watson in a one-and-done format this season, but this is certainly a place where he could be used. Watson enters this year's event with five consecutive top-15s here.
Justin Thomas
When we last saw Thomas, he was unquestionably the hottest golfer on the planet, but it's been a couple weeks and momentum doesn't often carry over a span that long. That said, if Thomas has truly turned a corner, he'll have figured out how to keep his form after not playing a couple weeks. Thomas missed the cut here last year but posted a top-20 the year prior.
C.T. Pan
I failed to follow my own advice last week when I wrote that it wasn't a good week to go with a sleeper, but I mean it this week! That said, if you want to go off the map, look at Pan. After last week, he is no longer unknown to most of the golfing public but still retains sleeper status as he's never played this event.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Wesley Bryan
Bryan burst onto the scene last season after a stellar showing on the Web.com Tour, but his results on the PGA Tour have left a lot to be desired. This isn't unprecedented, though. Many golfers have looked incredible on the Web.com Tour and struggled initially on the PGA Tour. There is an adjustment period and some simply take longer to adjust -- Bryan might be one of those guys.
Hunter Mahan
Who would have thought that after a disastrous 2016 season, Mahan would find himself on the "Avoid" list just a few weeks into 2017? It's actually a testament to how he's played this year as at the end of last season, I proclaimed he was no longer good enough to merit a mention on this list. He's not all the way back yet, however. It looks like he'll perform much better this season, but after last year it's all about baby steps.
Matt Kuchar
Kuchar has played this event seven times and has only one top-10 to show for his efforts. He's made the cut five of seven times, but when you are considering a player of Kuchar's caliber, you want to see a better track record. Kuchar's last three trips here have resulted in a T30, T33 and a T43. Not exactly up to his standards.
Ryo Ishikawa
Ishikawa is off to a decent start this season with a top-10 in his first start last fall and a top-20 last week at the Farmers, but it's going to be tough to keep that momentum going this week in Scottsdale. Ishikawa has played this event four times and has yet to make the cut.
Marc Leishman
Leishman is quietly off to a great start this season, with four top-25s in four starts. He posted a T20 last week at the Farmers, but much like Ishikawa, he's really struggled at this event over the years. In five starts, Leishman has made just two cuts and only once finished in the top 20.
ONE AND DONE GOLFER
Last week: Scott Stallings (MC) - $0; Season - $585,374
This week: Hideki Matsuyama - No fooling around this week, I'm going with the chalk. Matsuyama is going to be a very popular pick this week, but so be it. I learned my lesson last week with Scott Stallings -- if there are quality options at the high end, then use them. Fortunately, none of those quality options did much last week, so you could say that I got away with one.
YAHOO PICKS
Points: 537
Rank: 23,136
This Week:
Group A: Rickie Fowler, Patrick Reed
Group B: Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas, Phil Mickelson, Bubba Watson
Group C: Jon Rahm, J.B. Holmes
SURVIVOR PICK
Last week: Charles Howell III - (T2); Streak - 2
This week: Kevin Na - While Matsuyama seems like a lock to make the cut this week, I'm going to save him for later in the season and use Na. Na has played this event 11 times and has missed the cut just once. He often finishes inside the top 30, so he's not just making the cut, he's playing pretty well on the weekend as well.
