Weekly Preview: The Honda Classic

The Honda Classic

PGA National - Champion Course
Palm Beach Gardens, FL

The PGA Tour heads to Palm Beach Gardens, as we again experience the low after the high of a big tournament. There seems to be a pattern developing of have and have-nots among the PGA Tour events. Perhaps it's the effect of the pandemic, or maybe it's more of a scheduling quirk, but a lot of events are getting squeezed and The Honda Classic is no exception.

The Honda Classic has had some decent fields in recent years, but even when the field was loaded, there was still a 50/50 chance a surprise winner would emerge. This year we are missing just about everyone near the top of the world rankings, as No. 15 Daniel Berger is the highest-ranked player in the field. , which usually levels the field anyway, so even if there were some big names in the field, plenty wouldn't be in the mix come Sunday anyway. 

Where does that leave us this week, though? The wind is supposed to be a big factor, so that, coupled with a less-than-stellar field, gives us a chance at a crazy leaderboard come Sunday. If the weather is wreaking havoc it should be entertaining regardless who comes out on top.

LAST YEAR

Sungjae Im shot a final-round 66 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Mackenzie Hughes.

FAVORITES

Daniel Berger (11-1)

Berger is the best player in the field and he's not far removed from a win, so he's the obvious favorite. However, he has dealt with a rib injury of late, and it's not clear if he is 100 percent. Plus, as mentioned, this is not a week to be picking favorites unless there is some value, and at these odds there just is not enough. Berger has a good track record here, but it's a bit scattered, and he's nowhere near a sure thing to end up on top.

Sungjae Im (13-1)

Im is the defending champion, which always gives me pause. If he's playing a course which might be a bit unfamiliar because of the conditions, he might not have much of an advantage in that regard. Im has only played this event two times and the first resulted in a T51, so it's too early to tell if he has a feel for this track or if he just got hot for one week. His form is pretty solid, but like Berger, there isn't enough value in this play.

Joaquin Niemann (20-1)

No one should be lower than 20-1 this week, so in that sense, Niemann is the first player you should even consider taking. But, that doesn't mean you should. Unlike the two guys above, Niemann can't even claim one good showing on this course. Niemann has played this event twice and has just a T59 to show for it. He is one of the better golfers in the field, but there isn't much indicating a good showing this week.

THE NEXT TIER

Lee Westwood (22-1)

I'm a little surprised Westwood's odds aren't lower. He nearly won the past two weeks and he's returning to a place where he's had a good amount of success. Westwood has never missed a cut here in eight tries and has finished top-10 in half of his starts. The only thing working against him is expectations, as even after a good showing at Bay Hill two weeks ago, he wasn't too type at Sawgrass. Now, he's the trendy play.

Adam Scott (24-1)

Scott is a past champion of this event and his overall record is pretty solid. Scott won here in 2016 and has four additional top-15s in his eight starts here. He does have some rough results as well, but that seems to be the case for just about everyone in the field. Scott doesn't appear to be in top form, but he hasn't missed a cut this season, and perhaps a return to a place where he's won could give him a spark.

Chris Kirk (37-1)

Just like Westwood, there's a feeling that this might be a week late, as all good runs come to an end. Kirk has been playing very well, though, and hopefully he can keep it up for another week. He fell apart a bit this past Sunday, so he's actually in the rare spot of being in good form overall, yet having the added motivation to rebound from a poor round. Confusing, I know, but these guys hate posting big numbers and sometimes that helps them focus more. Kirk's track record here is not great, so we might look back in a week and see that his final-round 79 at THE PLAYERS was actually the tipping point. Still, I have a feeling be bounces back.

LONG SHOTS

Byeong Hun An (50-1)

If we are looking for longs hots, and we certainly are this week, then why not go with a guy who has played well here? An is certainly not in top form, as he missed the cut by a country mile this past week at The PLAYERS. However, he's been on his game at this event in two of three starts, finishing T4 last year and T5 in 2018. His worst effort was a T36 in 2019.

Keegan Bradley (50-1)

It's hard to imagine a lot of these guys winning, and while Bradley falls into that category, he's also getting a hefty price. Bradley hasn't played well here in recent years, but he did have a nice three-year stretch a little while back where he posted three consecutive top-15s. He's also coming off a decent showing at The PLAYERS, so if he finds some magic he could find the winner's circle again.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Lee Westwood - Without an elite golfer in the field and only a couple high-end players, Westwood is bound to be a very popular pick this week. This feels a week too late, but you can't deny that he's on a roll and he does know his way around this course, so I can't argue with this pick.

Moderately-owned Pick: Sungjae Im - Even though he's the highest-ranked player in the field, I don't see a lot of people on Berger this week, which means that those who lean towards the chalk will probably land of Im. His form is good and his track record here is solid.

Lightly-owned Pick: Byeong Hun An - The track record is there, but I'd imagine that most OAD players will have a hard time getting past his performance this past week. That'll open the door to some opportunity, though, as An has proven a couple times he can maneuver this course at a high level.

Buyer Beware: Daniel Berger - Berger has been very consistent over the past year, but I don't recall him being in a position like this during that time. It sounds strange, but being the favorite -- particularly when you are banged up -- is a tough spot to be in. I can't say for certain Berger will struggle as the favorite, but I can't say he won't. He's also a decent player to save for the stretch run, so I wouldn't deploy him here.

Last Week: Tommy Fleetwood - MC - $0

Season Total: $2,305,892

This Week: Byeong Hun An - Last week there were a bunch of good options that I didn't want to take. This time around, there really isn't anyone that I do want to take. In cases like this, there's no sense in burning anyone you might use down the stretch, so that points me to An. Remember that I need to make up ground, otherwise I might go with Westwood.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Sungjae Im ($11,800)
Middle Range: Doug Ghim ($9,800)
Lower Range: Jim Furyk ($8,300)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: Jason Day - T35

Streak: 3

This Week: Lee Westwood - I'm not as concerned with being in the majority in this type of pool, so I'll go with the guy who is most likely to make the cut and that's Westwood. Not only is he on fire right now, but he's never missed a cut here. Only the law of averages can stop him this week.