This article is part of our Yahoo PGA DFS Picks series.
BMW Championship
Owings Mills, Maryland
Caves Valley Golf Club - Par 72 - 7,542 yards
Field - 69 entrants
Purse - $9.5M
The Preview
Yet another overtime finish became necessary as the first leg of the FedExCup Playoffs culminated with playoff drama at Liberty National, but Tony Finau finally defeating the dreaded Puerto Rico Open win-drought curse was the cherry on top. As a result of the victory, Finau flew from 23rd to first in the FedExCup standings while also ascending to match his career-best mark of ninth in the Official World Golf Ranking. The PGA Tour's remaining player pool for the 2020-21 campaign has been cut down to the top-70 in points ahead of the BMW Championship, which is now hosted by a relatively unfamiliar Caves Valley Golf Club just outside Baltimore where Cal Ripken Jr. calls himself a member.
Recent Champions
2020 - Jon Rahm (Olympia Fields)
2019 - Justin Thomas (Medinah)
2018 - Keegan Bradley (Aronimink)
2017 - Marc Leishman (Conway Farms)
2016 - Dustin Johnson (Crooked Stick)
2015 - Jason Day (Conway Farms)
2014 - Billy Horschel (Cherry Hills)
2013 - Zach Johnson (Conway Farms)
2012 - Rory McIlroy (Crooked Stick)
2011 - Justin Rose (Cog Hill)
Key Stats to Victory
SG: Approach
Driving distance
Birdie or better percentage
Par-3: 200-225 efficiency
Yahoo Value Picks
Based on $200 salary cap
Cream of the Crop
Jon Rahm - $48
Paying up for the distant No. 1 player in the world isn't difficult given the no-cut structure of this 69-entrant field, which encourages a stars and scrubs strategy when it comes to building lineups. Despite spending an entire month away from tournament action following his T3 at the Open Championship and a second COVID-19 diagnosis, Rahm seemed to contend with ease at Liberty National before playing holes 15-18 in two-over-par during Monday's final round to miss out on what could've been his second big win of the summer. Nonetheless, he gained 12 strokes from tee to green at the Northern Trust while also leading the field in SG: Approach.
Justin Thomas - $43
He hadn't posted a top-10 on the PGA Tour since his PLAYERS Championship victory back in March, but Thomas finally appeared near the top of a leaderboard again this past week in New Jersey where he tied for fourth despite ranking 71st in SG: Around-the-Green while scrambling at a rate of just 54.55 percent. Thomas gained more than four strokes on his approach shots for a second straight tournament, and he's quietly third in Opportunities Gained over his last 24 rounds.
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Bryson DeChambeau - $42
Early rumors indicate Caves Valley Golf Club will be a bomber's paradise, which would lend quite an advantage to someone who paces the entire PGA Tour in both driving distance and SG: Off-the-Tee this season. DeChambeau's T31 result at the Northern Trust might appear insignificant on the surface, but he racked up 25 total birdies and an eagle despite losing nearly three strokes with the flat stick at Liberty National.
Glue Guys
Paul Casey - $33
Coming in at No. 1 in proximity over his last 24 rounds, Casey continues to put on a clinic with his irons, but the putter has a mind of its own. The Englishman gained seven strokes on the greens en route to a T5 at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, but he followed that up with a -6.5 SG: Putting performance at the Northern Trust where he finished T64 but top-15 in both SG: OTT and SG: APP. Casey has gained 4.1 or more strokes on his approach shots in six consecutive measured starts, which has ultimately propelled him to sixth in Opportunities Gained across his past 24 rounds.
Sam Burns - $33
Including a T18 overseas at the European Tour's Scottish Open, Burns has placed T21 or better in four of five starts dating to the Travelers Championship. This stretch includes sharing runner-up honors at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, where he gained over six shots with his putter. In fact, he's been on the positive side of SG: Putting in seven straight measured events, and he's fourth in birdie average this season.
Joaquin Niemann - $32
The flat stick was a major concern for Niemann around this time last year, but he heads back to the BMW Championship ranked 24th or better in both SG: Putting and putting from 5-10 feet throughout his last 24 rounds on bentgrass greens. Additionally, he's 12th on Tour in driving distance, 12th in SG: Off-the-Tee, 17th in birdie average and 13th in par-5 scoring.
Bargain Bin
Jhonattan Vegas - $20
Vegas, who stockpiled five top-15s from the AT&T Byron Nelson through the Wyndham Championship, finally cooled off with a missed cut at the Northern Trust. However, the MC at Liberty National can be attributed to the 2.4 strokes he lost with the putter in just 36 holes. Over his last 24 rounds, Vegas is third in driving distance, 10th in SG: Off-the-tee and seventh in P3: 200-225 efficiency.
Cameron Champ - $20
Not only does Champ absolutely nuke his driver, but he's also coming off the second-best SG: Approach performance of his entire career as he picked up more than six strokes with his irons at the Northern Trust. Despite his recent win at the 3M Open, Champ still needs a big week at Caves Valley in order to advance to the TOUR Championship as he currently resides 49th in the FedExCup standings.
Hudson Swafford - $20
This could definitely backfire given he's missed 13 cuts in 21 events played throughout the 2021 calendar year, but he can't physically increase that number to 14 MCs at the BMW Championship. Swafford was miserable on and around the greens this past week at Liberty National, but he managed to escape with a T11 as he gained a whopping 12.8 strokes ball-striking when combining SG: OTT and SG: APP. Over his last 24 rounds, Swafford ranks sixth in SG: Off-the-Tee, third in Par-5: 550-600 efficiency and 14th in Opportunities Gained. That sounds exactly like a recipe for DFS scoring upside at Caves Valley, so I think he's worthy of consideration at the minimum salary with four guaranteed rounds.
