This article is part of our NHL Picks series.
The 4 Nations Face-Off Tournament wraps up with Thursday's final between Team Canada and Team USA at TD Garden in Boston. Puck drop is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed or streamed on ESPN/ESPN+/Disney+. We'll take a look at some same-game parlay (SGP) opportunities for this historic matchup. Let's get started.
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Expert 4 Nations Face-Off Picks for Thursday, Feb. 20
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Canada vs. USA - 8:00 p.m. ET
Team Canada and Team USA square off in Boston, and this time it's for all of the marbles.
These teams met this past Saturday night at Bell Centre in Montreal, and it obviously started off with a ton of fireworks. A lot has also changed since then, so let's get into it.
First off, just two seconds into the game, apparently spurred on by a chat group, and the booing of the American national anthem, Matthew Tkachuk dropped the gloves and fought Canada's Brandon Hagel. Oddly enough, Tkachuk's Florida Panthers teammate, Sam Bennett, fought his brother Brady Tkachuk just a second later. At just nine seconds into the game, J.T. Miller was whistled for a cross-checking infraction, touching off a donnybrook with Colton Parayko of Canada.
The fisticuffs set the tone for what would be a very physical game in Montreal in the round-robin game. Oddly enough, after those three fights and the cross-checking minor to Miller, we had just a hooking call on Sidney Crosby at 12:54 of the first period, and a trip assessed to Jake Guentzel at 16:47 of the opening stanza, then no further infractions.
Connor McDavid opened the scoring, much to the delight of the crowd, helped by Drew Doughty and Jordan Binnington just 5:31 into the game. Guentzel leveled things 1-1, with helpers to Jack Eichel and Zach Werenski at 10:15.
In the second period, Dylan Larkin notched his first goal of the tournament with a helper to Matt Boldy at 13:33, and Guentzel added an empty-net goal at 18:41 of the third period, with an assist to Larkin and Brock Faber. That was all for the scoring.
Winnipeg's Connor Hellebuyck allowed a goal on 26 shots, his second straight start and win while allowing only a single goal. Binnington wasn't bad, allowing two goals on 22 shots. Hellebuyck is 2-0-0 with a 1.00 GAA and .957 SV% in his two 4 Nations starts, while Binnington is 2-1-0 with a 2.41 GAA and .892 SV% in his three starts in the tournament so far.
Prior to the tournament, I placed a futures bet on Team USA (+155), betting nearly $70 in Super Bowl winnings on the Americans. I'm not being biased, as I am American, but the reason I picked Team USA, and the reason I am still confident about Thursday's outcome, is goaltending. Hellebuyck has been the difference maker, and when the rosters came out, that was the glaring difference between the teams.
Now, Matthew Tkachuk suffered an injury in the first Canada matchup, an ailment which was later called a "lower-body injury," which ended up nailing him to the bench for half of the third period, and the entire game against Team Sweden. He was likely out as a precaution against the Swedes, as Team USA already had the spot in the final locked up.
Brady Tkachuk slid into the goal in Monday's game against Sweden, suffering his own lower-body injury in the first period. Both he and his brother are expected to be able to go, even if they have to gut it out a little bit. Auston Matthews was also held out as a precaution due to undisclosed soreness, but he, too, is expected to go.
The outlook is not good for Charlie McAvoy. He won't be able to play in his home NHL rink in the final, as he has been dealing with a serious shoulder injury. The defenseman was admitted to a local-area hospital due to a right shoulder injury, and apparently, he was being treated for an infection and significant injury to his AC joint. He had an irrigation and debridement procedure in Boston on Tuesday.
With McAvoy out, Ottawa's Jake Sanderson is expected to draw in for a second straight game, unless Vancouver's Quinn Hughes, originally named to the roster, can somehow miraculously play. That is not expected. Hughes was ruled out with an injury prior to the tournament.
While the injury issues are more rampant on the American side, really, the only change should be McAvoy out, and Sanderson in. For me, Hellebuyck is the difference. He has been Vezina-quality in the NHL season, and it has transferred over to the ice in this tournament.
Back Team USA straight up, and roll with the Under, in what should be a physical, entertaining affair. And, if you're a little more adventurous, taking the Alternate Total Goals - Under 4.5 Goals (+215), at FanDuel Sportsbook, is worth a roll of the dice.
For SGP parlay purposes, playing Zach Werenski - 1+ Points (+114) is also attractive, as he has an assist in each of his three 4-Nations games, totaling five helpers. Also, go high on Hellebuyck's Save Total - Over 27.5 (-102). Unfortunately, those cannot be combined in parlays.
- Team USA ML (-108 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Under 5.5 Goals (-130 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Today's Best Hockey Bet(s)
We cashed on the low in Team USA's round-robin finale against Sweden in Boston on Monday evening. The Swedes might not have made the final, but the team did finish the tournament on a high note behind Samuel Ersson.
For Thursday's title game, let's stick with Team USA to finish it off straight up.
- Team USA ML vs. Canada (-108 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Best NHL Bet Record
- Yesterday: 1-0 (100.0%, +100)
- Year-to-date: 16-11-1 (59.3%, +308)
4 Nations Parlay Today
2-Leg NHL Same-Game Parlay (+220 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Team USA ML (-110) vs. Canada
- Under 5.5 Goals (-134) - USA vs. Canada
