DraftKings MMA: UFC Fight Night 88 Preview

DraftKings MMA: UFC Fight Night 88 Preview

This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.

Two of the brightest bantamweight prospects in the world headline a rare Sunday card from Vegas.

If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests. Players get a $50,000 budget to select five fighters, and the scoring is distributed as follows:

Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Advance (ADVC): +1 PT
Takedown (TD): +2 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +2 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +3 PTS

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +100 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +50 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +25 PTS

Scoring Notes
Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.

Advances include: To Half Guard, To Side Control, To Mount, To Back Control

Now, on to the fights...

Main Event – Bantamweight

Thomas Almeida (21-0-0) v. Cody Garbrandt (8-0-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Almeida ($10,200), Garbrandt ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Almeida (-155), Garbrandt (+135)

Long considered to be one of the brightest prospects in all of MMA, UFC President Dana White actually had Almeida take a picture with the bantamweight title a while back because he views him as a future champion. Almeida is undefeated as a pro, coming off three straight Performance of the Night bonuses. Out of his 21 career wins, 16 of them have come in the first round. They are truly staggering numbers. Almeida was tested for the first time in his career against the ultra-tough Brad Pickett last July. He was knocked down twice, but he managed to survive until the end of the first round, and he responded with a flying knee 29 seconds into Round 2 that knocked Pickett out cold. Almeida combines heavy hands with lethal precision on the feet.

Also undefeated as a pro, Garbrandt has racked up TKO wins over Marcus Brimage and Augusto Mendes, sandwiched between a mediocre unanimous decision win over Henry Briones, in his first three UFC fights. Seven of Garbrandt's eight career wins are via TKO/KO, and there are serious questions about how well rounded of a fighter he is. No one doubts his power. He's a big bantamweight who has fought at featherweight in the past. Both fighters are young enough (24) that I think it's realistic to expect significant improvements from each moving forward.

Assuming that this turns into a kickboxing match, I think Almeida has a clear advantage. Garbrandt's willingness to stand and trade has served him well in the past, but he is yet to face an opponent of the Brazilian's caliber. Almeida should have an edge in anything other than a kickboxing match. The range of outcomes in this fight is vast. I could easily see it ending quickly, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the fight ended up going all five rounds. On paper, this sure seems like a good matchup for Almeida. I have zero doubt about his ability to land enough offense. As long as his defense holds up, he should win. That being said, there is no doubt that Garbrandt is a live dog and a halfway decent value play.

THE PICK: Almeida

Co-Main Event – Featherweight

Renan Barao (35-3-0, 1NC) v. Jeremy Stephens (24-12-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Barao ($10,100), Stephens ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Barao (-185), Stephens (+160)

Following a second straight beating at the hands of former UFC Bantamweight Champion T.J. Dillashaw, Barao will move up a weight class and make his featherweight debut against Stephens. Barao dropped his professional debut way back in April 2005, and then he ran off a 32-fight winning streak (1NC) prior to his first loss to Dillashaw in May 2014. This is a fighter who was universally viewed as a top-five pound-for-pound fighter prior to the back-to-back Dillashaw debacles. Barao is remarkably well rounded, but his power figures to be a bit less effective at the higher weight class. Barao looked like a defeated man in the both Dillashaw fights. T.J. is an elite fighter, so it's possible it may have just been a bad matchup for the Brazilian, but he has had issues cutting weight in the past, and although the mountain to the top of the featherweight division is filled with land mines, it's the right time for Barao to test the waters at 145.

Stephens has as much pure one-punch knockout power as any man in the division. 16 of his 24 career wins are via TKO/KO and he is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, although he doesn't put his ground skills to use very often. The list of elite opponents that Stephens has faced in his career in astounding (Max Holloway, Dennis Bermudez, Charles Oliveira, Cub Swanson, Donald Cerrone, Anthony Pettis, Rafael dos Anjos). Stephens has also displayed a granite chin, being knocked out just once in 36 career fights.

From a DraftKings point of view, this may be a fight to stay away from. We have no idea what Barao will look like at a higher weight class, and coming off a second straight embarrassing loss to Dillashaw. While Stephens has the power to finish this fight (or any fight) quickly, it would be a surprise to see that happen against a fighter of Barao's credentials. Even in the Dillashaw fights, Barao was methodically beaten down over the course of many rounds, not finished quickly. I like Barao to win, but I would roster Stephens first in my DK lineup. I think there's a better than 50-50 chance that this fight ends up going the distance.

THE PICK: Barao

Welterweight

Tarec Saffiedine (16-4-0) v. Rick Story (18-8-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Saffiedine ($9,700), Story ($9,700)
Vegas Odds: Saffiedine (-130), Story (+110)

Saffiedine has been one of the most underappreciated fighters in the world since his career began in 2007. He was the final Strikeforce Welterweight Champion and dating back to October 2009, his only two losses have come against Rory MacDonald and Tyron Woodley. A talented submission specialist, the only glaring weakness in Saffiedine's game is a lack of power in his hands. A long-tenured UFC veteran, Story is 11-6 in 17 fights with the company. He has generally struggled when tasked with facing better competition, although he does have wins against Johny Hendricks and Gunnar Nelson, and he is almost always competitive no matter the opponent. Story is very durable. He has never been knocked out, and has been submitted just once. This fight has three-round decision written all over it. Unless Story gets reckless and allows Saffiedine to clamp on a deep submission hold, it is difficult to see how either man ends this fight. Saffiedine is the more talented of the two fighters, while Story tends to get by on grit and his wrestling ability. Saffiedine should win, but a fight that appears to be so slanted towards a decision makes both fighters dicey DK plays.

THE PICK: Saffiedine

Women's Bantamweight

Sara McMann (8-3-0) v. Jessica Eye (11-4-0, 1NC)
DraftKings Salaries: McMann ($9,900), Eye ($9,500)
Vegas Odds: McMann (-155), Eye (+135)

To say this is a matchup of two women who badly need a win would be a vast understatement. McMann entered her title shot against Ronda Rousey in February 2014 on a seven-fight winning streak and undefeated as a professional. She lost the Rousey fight in 66 seconds and is just 1-2 since then. Granted the losses came against current champion Miesha Tate and current top challenger Amanda Nunes, but McMann is too talented to go 1-3 in any four-fight stretch, no matter who the opposition is. A former Olympic silver medalist in Women's Freestyle Wrestling, McMann is as strong as any woman on the UFC roster. Eye, on the other hand, is a below average wrestler who relies on her striking game. She doesn't have a ton of power, but she is extremely aggressive and mixes up her combinations well. Eye is also 1-3 in her last four fights, with losses to Tate, Alexis Davis and Julianna Pena, with her one win coming over Leslie Smith. I have long viewed McMann as a prime candidate to switch camps. She trains with a small team in her adopted home state of South Carolina, and she isn't improving. If anything, she's regressing. Eye's camp, Team Strong Style in Independence, Ohio, isn't exactly flush with MMA studs either, but at least they can claim that they now have the UFC Heavyweight Champion (Stipe Miocic) on their roster. I have always viewed Eye as being considerably overrated. A fighter who relies on her striking and aggressiveness but doesn't have much power tends to be a bad combination. McMann was probably a bit overrated as well in the sense that she isn't on the level of fighters such as Rousey or Tate, but at least she has one world-class skill, her wrestling. If McMann implements a wrestling-based game plan and there's no reason she shouldn't, she should win this fight. If she decides to stand and trade with Eye, she deserves to lose.

THE PICK: McMann

Bantamweight

Aljamain Sterling (12-0-0) v. Bryan Caraway (20-8-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Sterling ($11,000), Caraway ($8,400)
Vegas Odds:Sterling (-440), Caraway (+350)

This fight has been rumored to be in the making for quite a while, as the two men have been jawing back and forth on social media. Undefeated as a professional and coming off back-to-back slick submission wins over two tough customers in Johnny Eduardo and Takeya Mizugaki, Sterling briefly flirted with free agency before resigning with the UFC. His wrestling skills are elite, his ground game is well above average and he is improving as a striker. It makes for a dangerous combination. Caraway is a good fighter, but he has basically been relegated to gatekeeper status at this point in his career. 17 of Caraway's 20 career wins are via submission. It's a stunning number. Sterling has more power and he should be the crisper of the two strikers, but Caraway is going to have an advantage on the mat. That being said, Sterling is five years younger than Caraway and a much better athlete. Sterling has a legitimate chance to be a future champion someday. His game keeps improving under the tutelage of Ray Longo and Matt Serra. He is not yet on the level of top 135-pounders such as Dominick Cruz or T.J. Dillashaw, but he is talented enough to get there one day. Caraway isn't going anywhere, even with a poor performance, but this may be his last chance to significantly rise in the rankings. In a sport seemingly full of power punchers and elite athletes, Caraway is neither. I think Sterling wins this fight going away.

THE PICK: Sterling

Other Bouts


Welterweight

Jorge Masvidal (29-10-0) v. Lorenz Larkin (16-5-0, 1NC)
DraftKings Salaries: Masvidal ($9,600), Larkin $9,800)
Vegas Odds: Masvidal (+110), Larkin (-130)
THE PICK: Larkin

Lightweight

Josh Burkman (29-12-0, 1NC) v. Paul Felder (11-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Burkman ($8,600), Felder ($10,800)
Vegas Odds: Burkman (+250), Felder (-300)
THE PICK: Felder

Lightweight

Abel Trujillo (14-6-0, 1NC) v. Jordan Rinaldi (12-4-0)
DraftKings Salaries:Trujillo ($11,200), Rinaldi ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Trujillo (-320), Rinaldi (+260)
THE PICK: Trujillo

Middleweight

Jake Collier (9-2-0) v. Alberto Uda (9-0-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Collier ($9,100), Uda ($10,300)
Vegas Odds: Collier (+110), Uda (-130)
THE PICK: Collier

Lightweight

Erik Koch (14-4-0) v. Shane Campbell (12-4-0)
DraftKings Salaries:Koch ($9,400), Campbell ($10,000)
Vegas Odds: Koch (+150), Campbell (-170)
THE PICK: Koch

Heavyweight

Chris De La Rocha (4-1-0) v. Adam Milstead (7-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: De La Rocha ($8,700), Milstead ($10,700)
Vegas Odds: De La Rocha (+215), Milstead (-255)
THE PICK: Milstead

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jon Litterine plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: JLitterine.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jon Litterine
Jon Litterine is RotoWire's lead MMA Writer and MMA Editor. He has covered numerous MMA events live. He's also RW's NHL Prospect Analyst. Jon has been writing for RotoWire since 2005. He is a graduate of U Mass-Lowell.
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