DraftKings MMA: UFC Hidalgo Preview

DraftKings MMA: UFC Hidalgo Preview

This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.

A surging lightweight looks to keep the good times rolling as the UFC makes their first ever trip to Hidalgo, Texas on Saturday night.

If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests. Players get a $50,000 budget to select five fighters, and the scoring is distributed as follows:

Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Advance (ADVC): +1 PT
Takedown (TD): +2 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +2 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +3 PTS

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +100 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +50 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +25 PTS

Scoring Notes
Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.

Advances include: To Half Guard, To Side Control, To Mount, To Back Control

Now, on to the fights...

Main Event – Lightweight

Dustin Poirier (20-4-0) v. Michael Johnson (17-10-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Poirier ($10,400), Johnson ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Poirier (-155), Johnson (+135)

Poirier's loss to Conor McGregor in September 2014 may have been the best thing for his career. He immediately moved back up to lightweight after the McGregor defeat and has since won four fights in a row, three via knockout. Poirier's last fight, a June KO win over Bobby Green, was his most impressive effort of all. Poirier's body looks much healthier at 155 pounds. He obviously has more than enough power in his hands, but he doesn't have to cut an extreme amount of weight leading up to his fights, and it has improved his cardio and pace. The Diamond also has six career wins by submission, so he has plenty of different ways to finish a fight. An apparent afterthought as a featherweight, Poirier suddenly appears to be a contender at lightweight.

Johnson has dealt with numerous injuries throughout his career, and although he has generally bounced back well from any setbacks that he has endured, his performance against Nate Diaz in his last fight in December is a concern moving forward. In what was a pure kickboxing match, Johnson was thoroughly hammered. He got off second on every single exchange and he landed very few notable shots over the course of the bout. Johnson is going to have a very difficult time winning fights in which his striking isn't up to par. Perhaps it was just an off night, but it's something to keep an eye on moving forward.

A year ago at this time I probably would have picked Johnson over Poirier, but times have changed. MJ has never been stopped via strikes in his career, but he has been submitted six times. I wouldn't be surprised if he managed to last the entire 25 minutes, but Poirier is the clear pick in this fight. He has looked so explosive at lightweight that he would have to be the selection even if Johnson looked better in his last fight. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that Poirier could have title-implicating fights at some point in the next 12 months.

THE PICK: Poirier

Co-Main Event – Middleweight

Uriah Hall (13-6-0) v. Derek Brunson (15-3-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Hall ($9,000), Brunson ($10,400)
Vegas Odds: Hall (+160), Brunson (-185)

Hall earned the biggest win of his career last September when he picked up a stunning TKO win over Gegard Mousasi, but in typical Hall fashion, he lost his next fight. That fight was against the perennially underrated Robert Whittaker in November, and he has been on the sidelines since. Hall was due to face Anderson Silva at UFC 198 in May, but after Silva was forced to withdraw from that bout, Hall was removed from the card. Now at 32 years old, Hall has been one of the most inconsistent performers in all of MMA for years. If you catch him on the right night, he can look like a future world champion. Trying to predict what you will get from Hall on a fight-by-fight basis has proven to be a pointless endeavor. His striking skills are as strong as anyone in the division, but he often stands around and does nothing for extended periods of time, and he doesn't have an aggressive bone in his body.

A winner of four straight and six of seven, Brunson suddenly looks like one of the better fighters in the UFC's middleweight division. He is an explosive athlete, much like Hall, but Brunson has been far more consistent throughout his career, especially lately. Brunson has a lot of power, and although his MMA career got off to a bit of a late start, he has improved every single time he has stepped into the octagon. Brunson has a lot of power, and while he isn't the pure striker that Hall is, he moves and picks his spots better.

Even if I didn't love what I have seen from Brunson lately, I have been burned by Hall so many times that I more or less refuse to pick him in a big fight. He is just far too inconsistent on a fight-by-fight basis. He could very easily knock Brunson out in highlight-reel fashion, but I don't believe that anyone can safely predict what kind of effort you will get from Prime Time whenever he steps into the octagon.

THE PICK: Brunson

Welterweight

Roan Carneiro (20-10-0) v. Kenny Robertson (15-3-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Carneiro ($10,100), Robertson ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Carneiro (-110), Robertson (-110)

Bader parlayed a five-fight winning streak into a main event fight against Rumble Johnson in January, where he was promptly knocked out in 86 seconds. His wrestling game, at age 33, is as strong as ever. Everything Bader does on the feet is based upon the constant threat of him shooting for a takedown. He doesn't have a KO win in nearly five years, so the odds of him finishing any fight quickly with strikes is extremely slim at this point.

Latifi has made a methodical rise up the rankings since making his UFC debut in April 2013. He is 5-2 with the company and currently riding a three-fight winning streak. The Swede is built like a tank, and he might be the strongest fighter in the UFC's light heavyweight division. Like Bader, Latifi's strength is his wrestling game. I think he has more one-punch knockout power than his opponent, but I would be very surprised if this turns into a 15-minute kickboxing match.

Bader is taller and has a slight reach advantage, although I don't imagine either will make a huge difference in the type of grappling fight that this projects to be. Bader has little to gain in this fight from a rankings perspective, so he better win. On the other hand, Latifi has nothing to lose. These are two above-average, top-10 light heavyweights with little seemingly separating the two. When that's the case, I take the fighter who is the underdog, particularly one as big as Latifi is here.

THE PICK: Carneiro

Lightweight

Chris Wade (11-2-0) v. Islam Makhachev (12-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Wade ($9,600), Makhachev ($9,800)
Vegas Odds: Wade (+100), Makhachev (-120)

Wade's UFC career got off to a roaring start with four straight wins. Then, the competition level rose considerably, and he was thoroughly defeated in a unanimous decision loss to Rustam Khabilov in May. Wade is an exceptional wrestler, averaging 3.25 takedowns per fight throughout his UFC career, but he has never won a fight via TKO/KO. Although he has four career wins via submission, those finishes were mostly set up as the result of his wrestling skills.

Makhachev, a member of the growing list of UFC fighters from Dagestan, has an International Master of Sport in Sambo, a credential common for fighters in that region. It was reported in April that Makhachev had failed a USADA out-of-completion drug test, but upon further review, no action was taken against him. This will be the third of Makhachev's four-fight UFC contract. His last fight was nearly a year ago (October 3, 2015) and that resulted in a 106-second KO loss at the hands of Adriano Martins. The result of that fight appeared to be a fluke, and as good as Wade's wrestling game is, Makhachev's has been even better throughout his time with the company. He checks in at a ridiculous 4.79 takedowns per fight. It's a truly astonishing number.

I'm picking Makhachev because if these neither of these guys can get an advantage with their takedown attempts, I have more confidence in Makhachev's striking game than Wade's. Wade tends to get hit more on the feet, and that concerns me in a fight where neither man makes their living with their power.

THE PICK: Makhachev

Other Bouts


Lightweight

Evan Dunham (16-6-0) v. Rick Glenn (18-3-1)
DraftKings Salaries: Dunham ($10,700), Glenn ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Dunham (-280), Glenn (+240)
THE PICK: Dunham

Featherweight

Gabriel Benitez (18-6-0) v. Sam Sicilia (15-6-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Benitez ($8,200), Sicilia ($11,200)
Vegas Odds: Benitez (+145), Sicilia (-160)
THE PICK: Sicilia

Welterweight

Augusto Montano (15-2-0) v. Belal Muhammad (9-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Montano ($9,200), Muhammad ($10,200)
Vegas Odds: Montano (+300), Muhammad (-360)
THE PICK: Muhammad

Middleweight

Antonio Carlos Junior (6-2-0, 1NC) v. Leonardo Augusto Leleco (11-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Carlos Junior ($9,900), Augusto Leleco ($9,500)
Vegas Odds: Carlos Junior (-225), August Leleco (+175)
THE PICK: Carlos Junior

Bantamweight

Jose Quinonez (5-2-0) v. Joey Gomez (6-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Quinonez ($10,500), Gomez ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Quinonez (+140), Gomez (-160)
THE PICK: Gomez

Welterweight

Erick Montano (8-3-0) v. Randy Brown (7-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Montano ($8,500), Brown ($10,900)
Vegas Odds: Montano (+325), Brown (-400)
THE PICK: Brown

Bantamweight

Alejandro Perez (18-6-0) v. Albert Morales (6-0-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Perez ($11,000), Morales ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Perez (-115), Morales (-105)
THE PICK: Morales

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jon Litterine plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: JLitterine.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jon Litterine
Jon Litterine is RotoWire's lead MMA Writer and MMA Editor. He has covered numerous MMA events live. He's also RW's NHL Prospect Analyst. Jon has been writing for RotoWire since 2005. He is a graduate of U Mass-Lowell.
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