This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Mexico City DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC Mexico City DFS picks are set for Saturday, with breakdowns of the top fights on DraftKings and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $350k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Flyweight
Brandon Moreno (22-8-2) v. Steve Erceg (12-3-0)
DK Salaries: Moreno ($8,600), Erceg ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Moreno (-230), Erceg (+190)
A former two-time UFC Flyweight Champion, Moreno dropped back-to-back split decisions to Alexandre Pantoja (in which he lost his title) and Brandon Royval from July 2023 to February 2024. He took some time off, regrouped, and returned to dominate Amir Albazi in a lopsided five-round unanimous decision win last November. Moreno looked fantastic, and the time away, although it was only eight-plus months, appeared to do him a world of good. Due to the lack of depth at the top of the 125-pound division, Brandon is probably going to get another title opportunity if he is able to get by Erceg.
Erceg is taking a big risk here, although it's not as if he has much of a choice. The Aussie fought Pantoja for the championship last May and quite possibly would have won had he not made a bonehead decision which left him pinned to the mat in the deciding fifth round. Of greater concern was Erceg's follow-up effort, a first-round knockout loss to Kai-Kara France in August. Steve is now staring down the barrel of a three-fight losing streak and will have to get by a perennial top-three guy in the division.
Moreno's two greatest attributes are his ridiculous toughness and his ability to land tons of volume on the feet. He's connected on 100-plus significant strikes five separate times in his UFC career, including three fights in a row. It would certainly be nice for Moreno to display a bit more one-punch knockout power, but that's simply not his game. His game is output, movement and timely wrestling when needed.
Don't let the fact Erceg has only five UFC bouts under his belt fool you. This is a highly-skilled competitor with world-class attributes. Steve is much more calm and composed than Moreno. He's a very technical striker and very good from distance. At 5-foot-8, Erceg is very big for the division, although he's just an inch taller than Moreno and is giving up two inches in reach to the former champ.
I imagine you'll be able to tell very quickly how this fight is going to go. If it's being fought at a fast pace with a ton of movement from each man, that favors Moreno. If it's a slow and a technical kickboxing match, that favors Erceg.
Erceg's 60 percent takedown defense is clearly his biggest hole. He gave up nine takedowns to Pantoja on 19 attempts. He didn't have to worry about that against Kara-France because KKF never wrestles. Now, I don't expect Moreno to spam takedowns attempts like Pantoja did, but I can certainly see him shooting repeatedly, especially late in rounds if it's close. Brandon's fight IQ has long been underrated.
Erceg was close to beating Pantoja, so it stands to reason he's going to give Moreno a competitive bout. Almost all flyweight fights are competitive to begin with.
When you toss in the fact Moreno looks reenergized, combined with the fact he is going to have the crowd behind him, I think he takes a tight decision.
UFC MEXICO CITY PICK: Moreno
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Co-Main Event - Lightweight
Manuel Torres (15-3-0) v. Drew Dober (27-14-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Torres ($8,200), Dober ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Torres (-120), Dober (+100)
Torres has made quite a name for himself in a short period of time despite the fact he's coming off a knockout loss -- his first UFC defeat -- to Ignacio Bahamondes at Noche UFC last September. He had won each of his first three fights with the company via stoppage (two knockouts, one submission) in addition to scoring a knockout win on Dana White's Contender Series back in October 2021. The ceiling here may not be all that high, but Torres looks like solid roster depth.
Set to turn 37 years of age this coming October, Dober has lost two straight and three of four and almost certainly will be fighting for his job on Saturday night. To be fair, two of those defeats came against high-end competition in Jean Silva and Renato Moicano, but Dober is pretty clearly on his last legs. He's been a member of the UFC roster since November 2013, a span of 24 fights, so he's going to get to the rare 25-bout milestone regardless of the result here.
You sort of have to throw the numbers out the window with Torres because each of his four UFC fights, plus his DWCS win, ended in Round 1. In fact, only one bout of his has lasted more than 3:27. Torres clearly isn't paid by the hour. He's typically uber-aggressive on the feet, but I was most impressed with how he flipped the script in his most recent win over Chris Duncan. Duncan has displayed woeful takedown defense in the past, so Torres whipped out his grappling skills and picked up two takedowns and rear-naked choke submission in a span of 1:46.
Dober has always been a strong technical striker. Even in his recent loss to Silva, he was only out-struck 59-53. Yes, the punches are coming slower, and the footwork and head movement have greatly deteriorated at his advanced age, but the Elevation Fight Team product is still plenty capable of remaining competitive if you allow him to fight to his greatest (and really only) strengths at this stage of his career.
I worry about Dober's durability at this stage of his career, and I worry about the fact he's giving up two inches and height and three inches in reach.
That said, he has the stand-up skills to pull a (very minor) upset here on a card in which the amount of underdogs I like outright is very small. You're going to have to take a stand somewhere. Rolling with Dober seems like a reasonable spot.
UFC MEXICO CITY PICK: Dober
Like this underdog suggestion? Try it out with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
Middleweight
Kelvin Gastelum (19-9-0, 1NC) v. Joe Pyfer (13-3-0)
DK Salaries: Gastelum ($6,900), Pyfer ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Gastleum (+250), Pyfer (-310)
Gastelum continues to get notable fights against quality opponents despite the fact he is sporting a 3-6 record dating back to April 2019. Now, the six defeats came against literally the best in the world (Sean Brady, Jared Cannonier, Robert Whittaker, Jack Hermansson, Darren Till, Israel Adesanya), but you are what your record says you are in this sport. I also don't like the fact Gastelum continues to dabble in two weight classes. Kelvin's loss to Brady two fights ago was at welterweight. He was also scheduled to face Daniel Rodriguez at 170 pounds in his most recent bout last June (a unanimous decision win), but Gastelum acknowledged issues during his weight cut and the fight was moved to 185 pounds. Here, he's not even bothering trying to cut down.
This seems like smart matchmaking and a reasonable test for Pyfer. The 28-year-old is 4-1 in the UFC, with four stoppage wins and a five-round, main event loss to Hermansson on his resume. Even in defeat, Pyfer looked excellent early on before gassing out and falling to the veteran. That said, Pyfer's best UFC wins are over Marc-Andre Barriault and Abdul Razak Alhassan. He might not be quite ready for showtime at 185 pounds, so a fight against Gastelum seems like a smart compromise.
Gastelum is a tough fighter to figure out. A former high-level wrestler in college, there are some fights -- primarly against pure strikers -- in which Kelvin uses his wrestling to completely smother his opposition. In other bouts, like the one against Brady, Gastelum is pinned to the mat seemingly the entire fight and can't get out of first gear. All told, he averages 1.1 takedowns per 15 minutes, so he's clearly not leaning on his wrestling every time out.
The size difference here figures to be a big problem for Kelvin. At 5-foot-9 with a 71-inch reach, Gastelum's ideal weight class is welterweight. He's too undersized to repeatedly succeed at 185 pounds, but because of the weight cutting issues, he's forced to move up.
Pyfer is 6-foot-2 with a 75-inch reach and probably wouldn't look out of place at light heavyweight. Kelvin's easiest path to victory is to try to lean on that wrestling, but Pyfer is so big and strong that I don't think it's a realistic option.
On the feet, Gastelum has always been a talented striker that excels at stringing together combinations, but Pyfer's power is ridiculous. Also ridiculous is Kelvin's durability, having never been finished in 29 pro fights.
It's a near-certainty Gastelum is going to have to weather some rough seas early on. If you're a Kelvin backer, you're hoping he can tough it out and take advantage of a hopefully-tiring Pyfer late.
I'd have far more interest in Kelvin as an upset pick if this was scheduled for five rounds. As is, Pyfer is the choice, even if he seems a bit overpriced given his overall body of work.
UFC MEXICO CITY PICK: Pyfer
Bantamweight
Raul Rosas (10-1-0) v. Vince Morales (16-9-0)
DK Salaries: Rosas ($9,200), Morales ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Rosas (-395), Morales (+310)
The UFC continues to take things exceedingly slow with Rosas, which is fine because he won't turn 21 years of age until early-October. He's 4-1 in the UFC, with wins over Aori Qileng, Ricky Turcios, Terrence Mitchell and Jay Perrin, and a unanimous decision loss to Christian Rodriguez in a fight in which Rodriguez missed weight. It should also be noted that Rosas started very quickly in his one defeat before gassing out. I imagine it would be an entirely different result if the two fought today.
We have a long track record across two separate stints with the company that tells us Morales probably won't be pulling the upset here. Vince joined the UFC in November 2018 and went 3-5 before being released. He returned last September on short notice and dropped a unanimous decision to Taylor Lapilus. He dropped another unanimous decision to a fellow top prospect in Elijah Smith in February. To recap, Morales will be competing in his second fight in six weeks and will be staring down the barrel of a release if he comes up short in enemy territory. He's in no position to pick and choose is opposition, so he's stuck fighting Rosas here.
Rosas is entirely reliant on his power wrestling game for success. He's averaging 4.02 takedowns per 15 minutes and has gotten each of his opponents to the mat at least twice, outside of Mitchell, who he knocked out in 54 seconds. Raul's striking is improving, but it's never going to be on the level of his grappling. You're essentially just hoping it gets to an acceptable level that he can threaten his opposition on the feet. He has very little stopping power in his hands despite the Mitchell result.
It's pretty hard to envision how Morales wins this fight. I would say maybe he can survive the early blitz that's undoubtedly forthcoming and then take over late, but Vince is landing just 3.84 significant strikes per minute. I don't see him overwhelming Rosas on the feet, even if the latter is unable to get his wrestling game going.
I will say that Morales put forth a better effort against Smith than I expected. Yes, he allowed three takedowns on four attempts, but he landed two takedowns of his own. It should be noted that was Smith's UFC debut. Rosas has considerably more big fight experience and should be more comfortable here.
It goes without saying that the company was never going to give Rosas a fight here that they thought he couldn't win with relative ease. Raul is so young that it's all about getting reps inside the Octagon and staying healthy.
Rosas' game may never be conducive to producing huge DK scores, but I think he wins this one easily.
UFC MEXICO CITY PICK: Rosas
Other Bouts
Bantamweight
David Martinez (11-1-0) v. Saimon Oliveira (18-5-0)
DK Salaries: Martinez ($9,400), Oliveira ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Martinez (-395), Oliveira (+310)
THE PICK: Martinez
Flyweight
Ronaldo Rodriguez (17-2-0) v. Kevin Borjas (9-3-0)
DK Salaries: Rodriguez ($8,500), Borjas ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Rodriguez (-170), Borjas (+140)
THE PICK: Borjas
Flyweight
Edgar Chairez (11-6-0, 1NC) v. C.J. Vergara (12-6-1)
DK Salaries: Chairez ($9,000), Vergara ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Chairez (-270), Vergara (+220)
THE PICK: Chairez
Middleweight
Jose Medina (11-4-0) v. Ateba Gautier (6-1-0)
DK Salaries: Medina ($6,600), Gautier ($9,600)
Vegas Odds: Medina (+360), Gautier (-470)
THE PICK: Gautier
Women's Strawweight
Lupita Godinez (12-5-0) v. Julia Polastri (13-4-0)
DK Salaries: Godinez ($8,800), Polastri ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Godinez (-240), Polastri (+195)
THE PICK: Godinez
Lightweight
Rafa Garcia (16-4-0) v. Vinc Pichel (14-4-0)
DK Salaries: Garcia ($9,500), Pichel ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Garcia (-485), Pichel (+370)
THE PICK: Garcia
Featherweight
Jamall Emmers (20-8-0) v. Gabriel Miranda (17-7-0)
DK Salaries: Emmers ($9,100), Miranda ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Emmers (-190), Miranda (+160)
THE PICK: Emmers
Lightweight
Marquel Mederos (9-1-0) v. Austin Hubbard (17-8-0)
DK Salaries: Mederos ($8,700), Hubbard ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Mederos (-190), Hubbard (+160)
THE PICK: Hubbard
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Mexico City with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
