This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 82 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $700k UFC 295 Special with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Middleweight
Brendan Allen (22-5-0) v. Paul Craig (17-6-1)
DK Salaries: Allen ($9,400), Craig ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Allen (-395), Craig (+310)
By far one of the most underrated fighters in the entire company, Allen, who turns 28 years of age in late-December, enters having won five straight, including three in a row via stoppage. He's 10-2 in a dozen bouts with the UFC, with his two setbacks coming via knockout to Chris Curtis and current UFC Middleweight Champion Sean Strickland. I'm a big fan of Allen and think this surge is entirely sustainable.
Craig will be 36 years of age nine days after this event takes place. A one-dimensional mat specialist with virtually no power, Craig may have very well saved his job with a knockout win over Andre Muniz this past July. Now, he's in the main event just four months later. While Craig is at a distinct disadvantage in prolonged striking exchanges, he has knocked out both Muniz and former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Jamahal Hill during his UFC run.
A long-time 205-pounder, the Muniz fight was Craig's middleweight debut. He's a big, physical guy with a ton of size for 185 pounds, which is probably his greatest asset moving forward. I don't expect prolonged success simply because Craig's offensive arsenal is extremely limited, but his UFC run has already gone far better than I originally expected.
Allen is an excellent grappler, but rolling around on the mat with Craig is a recipe for disaster. It's by far Paul's clearest path to victory, and Allen would be wise to try to keep this fight standing by any means necessary.
This will also be the rare fight in which Allen is the smaller man. He's giving up an inch in both height and reach to Craig, but I doubt that comes into play given Craig's striking struggles.
My guess is Allen wins this fight easily, probably by overwhelming Craig on the feet, but we certainly aren't getting a discount on the price tag, as he's the second-most expensive fighter on the entire DK slate.
Using Craig as an punt play is simply hoping he catches Allen in some submission during a fight that's scheduled for five rounds. I'd absolutely bet against that.
UFC VEGAS 82 PICK: Allen
Co-Main Event - Welterweight
Michael Morales (15-0-0) v. Jake Matthews (19-6-0)
DK Salaries: Morales ($9,100), Matthews ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Morales (-270), Matthews (+220)
This is the battle of a current top prospect against a former top prospect.
The current one, Morales, has knockout wins over Trevin Giles and Adam Fugitt and a unanimous decision over Max Griffin in three UFC bouts. He turned just 23 years of age in late-June. He's really good, and might be great one day, but he hasn't fought anyone of note to date. Matthews might not be great and has not lived up to expectations, but there's still an argument to be made he's the best opponent Morales has seen to date.
Matthews, now 29 years old, has alternated wins and losses in his past five fights. He's a strong kid and probably should have been fighting at welterweight all along, but his striking simply has not developed. It's stunning that he absorbs only 2.33 significant strikes per minute, because every time you look at Matthews it seems as if he's getting beaten up on the feet.
Morales enters with a ridiculous six-inch reach edge. He has a clear power edge over Matthews, and he's excellent at defending the takedown, staving off 91 percent of the attempts that come his way. If Morales is able to remain upright, he should be able to easily overwhelm Matthews on the feet. After all, Morales averages 5.17 significant strikes landed per minute.
It should be noted that Morales' win over Griffin was far from smooth sailing. He struggled early on in that fight and improved as it went along. That's an excellent sign for such a young competitor.
Matthews is a live underdog simply because Morales is going to make mistakes along the way given his youth, but it's worth noting Jake's four most recent wins came against Darrius Flowers, Andre Fialho, Diego Sanchez and Emil Meek. He hasn't defeated anyone of note (Li Jingliang) since February 2018.
I'll wager on Morales' physical gifts and assume he can adjust to anything Matthews may throw his way. Again, his opponent hasn't exactly been a juggernaut of late.
UFC VEGAS 82 PICK: Morales
Lightweight
Chase Hooper (12-3-1) v. Jordan Leavitt (11-2-0)
DK Salaries: Hooper ($8,800), Leavitt ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Hooper (-230), Leavitt (+190)
Few fighters on the UFC roster have been as inconsistent as Hooper. Dating back to December 2019 debut, Chase has alternated wins and losses in his seven fights with the company. If that trend holds, he's in trouble on Saturday.
Leavitt hasn't been much better, going 4-2 in his six bouts with the UFC, although it's worth noting he's coming off his best performance to date, a knockout of Victor Martinez a little over two minutes in this past February.
While the inconsistencies of Hooper have been frustrating, it's important to remember he's still just a kid. Chase turned just 24 years of age this past September. The good news is that a fighter that young should be making significant improvements on a fight-by-fight basis. The bad news is that we haven't really seen that from Hooper. I think there's a real chance what we've seen to date -- a .500 fighter with zero consistency -- is what we're going to get moving forward.
The most obvious and significant aspect of this fight figures to be Hooper's massive size advantage. At 6-foot-1, he's about as big as any lightweight on the roster. He'll enter with a four-inch edge in height and three-inch edge in reach on Leavitt, but we've seen Chase really struggle with his striking defense at times, so I'm not sure he's in position to take advantage of what should theoretically be a big edge in the stand-up.
Leavitt needs to make this fight ugly. Hooper has given up takedowns in three of his past four fights (often times due to his tendency and willingness to pull guard and work his jiu-jitsu). He battered Nick Fiore in his most recent bout in May, but still gave up four takedowns in the process. I'm pretty confident Jordan can get him to the mat once or twice, and that may be all that's needed in a three-round fight. I'm less confident he can keep Hooper pinned to the mat for a significant period of time. Remember, holding your opponent on the mat doesn't mean much in the eyes of judges anymore. You actually have to do damage from top position.
This looks like a prime position to back an underdog given the value Leavitt brings to the table. The size difference is a concern, and Leavitt is far from a volume puncher (2.64 significant strikes landed per minute), but Hooper provides openings for his opposition almost every single fight. Fiore couldn't take advantage, but Leavitt is significantly better. I expect a pretty solid showing from the underdog even if he comes up short.
UFC VEGAS 82 PICK: Leavitt
Women's Strawweight
Luana Pinheiro (11-1-0) v. Amanda Ribas (11-4-0)
DK Salaries: Pinheiro ($7,200), Ribas ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Pinheiro (+210), Ribas (-260)
Pinheiro's 3-0 record in the UFC -- plus a win on Dana White's Contender Series -- looks great on paper, but a deeper dive reveals concerns. Those three wins were a pair of decisions over Michelle Waterson (split) and Sam Hughes (unanimous) along with a DQ win over Randa Markos following an illegal upkick. Having faced limited competition to date and set to turn exactly 30 years of age the day this fight is scheduled to take place, I'm not sure there's much upside here.
I always felt Ribas had some upside, but she's another one that has been unable to string together victories of late. She's alternated wins and losses in her past five fights dating back to July 2020, and unlike Hooper, she's in line for a victory if the streak holds.
I mentioned earlier the lack of quality competition Pinheiro has faced. Ribas has been in the Octagon with the likes of Maycee Barber, Katlyn Chookagian, Marina Rodriguez, Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern. All of those fighters are lightyears better than anyone Luana has gone up against.
One thing that isn't in question is Ribas' toughness. Three of her four career defeats have come via knockout, but it takes a ton to get her out of there. Barber battered her from start to finish in her most recent bout, and Amanda dug deep to hang around until late Round 2. I expect she'll have any easier time of it against Pinheiro, who hasn't shown any stopping power since officially joining the company. The constant striking pressure Ribas has struggled with in the past is unlikely to manifest itself against Luana.
Pinheiro's best chance of winning this fight is to get it to the mat, and although she's averaging 2.83 takedowns per 15 minutes, she failed on all five of her attempts against Waterson. Michelle is one of the smallest fighters in the strawweight division, and the fact Luana wasn't able to get her to the mat even once is a poor sign for her ability to get Ribas down with any consistency.
The most likely scenario here is that Amanda remains upright without issue and lands more than enough volume on the feet to take a decision.
UFC VEGAS 82 PICK: Ribas
Other Bouts
Bantamweight
Payton Talbott (6-0-0) v. Nick Aguirre (7-1-0)
DK Salaries: Talbott ($9,500), Aguirre ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Talbott (-550), Aguirre (+410)
UFC VEGAS 82 PICK: Talbott
Welterweight
Jonny Parsons (9-3-0) v. Uros Medic (9-1-0)
DK Salaries: Parsons ($7,300), Medic ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Parsons (+190), Medic (-230)
UFC VEGAS 82 PICK: Medic
Featherweight
Jonathan Pearce (14-4-0) v. Joanderson Brito (15-3-1)
DK Salaries: Pearce ($8,400), Brito ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Pearce (-130), Brito (+110)
UFC VEGAS 82 PICK: Pearce
Bantamweight
Chad Anheliger (12-6-0) v. Jose Johnson (15-8-0)
DK Salaries: Anheliger ($7,500), Johnson ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Anheliger (+170), Johnson (-205)
UFC VEGAS 82 PICK: Johnson
Heavyweight
Michael Parkin (7-0-0) v. Caio Machado (8-1-1)
DK Salaries: Parkin ($9,200), Machado ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Parkin (-345), Machado (-275)
UFC VEGAS 82 PICK: Parkin
Featherweight
Jeka Saragih (13-3-0) v. Lucas Alexander (8-3-0)
DK Salaries: Saragih ($6,900), Alexander ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Saragih (+295), Alexander (-375)
UFC VEGAS 82 PICK: Alexander
Women's Bantamweight
Lucie Pudilova (14-8-0) v. Ailin Perez (8-2-0)
DK Salaries: Pudilova ($7,600), Perez ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Pudilova (+150), Perez (-180)
UFC VEGAS 82 PICK: Pudilova
Lightweight
Trey Ogden (16-6-0) v. Nikolas Motta (13-5-0)
DK Salaries: Ogden ($7,900), Motta ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Ogden (+115), Motta (-135)
UFC VEGAS 82 PICK: Motta
Flyweight
Charles Johnson (13-5-0) v. Rafael Estevam (11-0-0)
DK Salaries: Johnson ($8,000), Estevam ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Johnson (+105), Estevam (-125)
UFC VEGAS 82 PICK: Estevam
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Vegas 82 with more MMA betting content.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
