This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 75 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Zac Pauga (6-1-0) v. Modestas Bukauskas (14-5-0)
Zac Pauga - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 76" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 1 finishes in 6 wins
Modestas Bukauskas - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 78" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect this fight to remain on the feet for as long as it lasts. Both guys have significant power, and this will unlikely go 15 minutes. Bukauskas will have the faster hands and likely come away with the win. If Pauga can work inside while avoiding the big shot, he could score the upset, but I do not see it happening.
UFC Vegas 75 Pick: Bukauskas
Dan Argueta (9-1-0) v. Ronnie Lawrence (8-2-0)
Dan Argueta - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" - Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 9 wins
Ronnie Lawrence - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 68" – Switch
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a tough fight between two skilled grapplers. Lawrence will be the one pushing the pace and recording the takedowns. Argueta is a sneaky submission artist, so Lawrence does need to be careful about the positions he puts himself in.
UFC Vegas 75 Pick: Lawrence
Tereza Bleda (6-1-0) v. Gabriella Fernandes (8-2-0)
Tereza Bleda - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 6 wins
Gabriella Fernandes - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 66" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Both ladies are coming in after a debut loss. I give Bleda a significant advantage in the first round, but her cardio is a significant question mark afterwards. If Fernandes makes it through the first round without issue, I see her potentially taking over and winning the next two rounds, but I will lean toward Bleda for her constant pressure.
UFC Vegas 75 Pick: Bleda
Zhalgas Zhumagulov (14-8-0) v. Felipe Bunes (13-6-0)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 66" - Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 8 finishes in 14 wins
Felipe Bunes - Height: 5'7" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: Bunes is making his debut and likely has a difficult time in this one. His best path to victory is getting this down to the mat and in control. Zhumagulov needs a statement win to avoid getting torched by judges again. I expect him to come out fast and never let up.
UFC Vegas 75 Pick: Zhumagulov
Carlos Hernandez (8-2-0) v. Denys Bondar (16-4-0)
Carlos Hernandez - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 67" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 8 wins
Denys Bondar - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Bondar is a finisher, having done so in all 14 of his wins, but his competition could have been better. Hernandez should be slightly better everywhere the fight goes but must be careful not to put himself in a position that could get him caught. This fight is close, and I would not be surprised to see this go either way.
UFC Vegas 75 Pick: Hernandez
Kyung Ho Kang (18-9-0) v. Cristian Quinonez (18-3-0)
Kyung Ho Kang - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 73" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 18 wins
Cristian Quinonez - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 13 finishes in 18 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect this to be a classic striker vs. grappler match. Kang will hold a significant advantage on the mat, while Quinonez will have a considerable edge on the feet. Quinonez has excellent leg kicks and will likely look to slow Kang early in the fight. Kang will be the first to truly test the takedown defense of Quinonez, and if he has success, I see him winning this fight.
UFC Vegas 75 Pick: Kang
Jimmy Flick (16-6-0) v. Alessandro Costa (12-3-0)
Jimmy Flick - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 16 wins
Alessandro Costa - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Flick will need instant control from a takedown to win this fight. He struggles when pressured and gets cracked often if he cannot find takedowns. I expect Costa to stuff the takedowns and end this fight early. He is one of my favorite plays for DFS.
UFC Vegas 75 Pick: Costa
Raoni Barcelos (17-4-0) v. Miles Johns (13-2-0)
Raoni Barcelos - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 67" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 17 wins
Miles Johns - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 6 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: Barcelos has had a string of bad fights, winning just one over his last four and suffering a nasty knockout in his most recent trip to the cage. While this looks like a potential bounce-back for him, I think he will struggle again. Johns has elite takedown defense, so if Barcelos wins this fight, it will be from volume. Johns carries power and could find himself recording a knockout early, smashing value.
UFC Vegas 75 Pick: Johns
Muslim Salikhov (19-3-0) v. Nicolas Dalby (21-4-1)
Muslim Salikhov - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 15 finishes in 19 wins
Nicolas Dalby - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 74" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 10 finishes in 21 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be a tightly contested fight for 15 minutes, and it could go either way. Both guys are solid everywhere, and this should come down to damage done. I lean toward Salikhov ever so slightly, as he is also more likely to record a finish.
UFC Vegas 75 Pick: Salikhov
Manuel Torres (13-2-0) v. Nikolas Motta (13-4-0)
Manuel Torres - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 13 wins
Nikolas Motta - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: I think Motta is in a world of trouble with this matchup. If he is going to win, he needs to land something flush and knock Torres out. Torres will push the pace and can win this fight anywhere. I expect another big win and score from the young prospect.
UFC Vegas 75 Pick: Torres
Pat Sabatini (17-4-0) v. Lucas Almeida (14-1-0)
Pat Sabatini - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 17 wins
Lucas Almeida - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: If Sabatini cannot record takedowns and keep control, he will have another short night in the cage. He makes a living by keeping control on the mat, but Almeida has grappling chops of his own. Almeida will have a massive edge on the feet, and with each stuffed takedown, he heightens his chance to end this fight early on the feet.
UFC Vegas 75 Pick: Almeida
Christian Leroy Duncan (8-0-0) v. Armen Petrosyan (7-2-0)
Christian Leroy Duncan - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 79" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 8 wins
Armen Petrosyan - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be a fast-paced, high-intensity striking match. If there were to be a takedown, I would expect Duncan to initiate it and then completely dominate on the mat. He should also have a slight edge in volume and power on the feet. If it goes to the scorecards, the judges will likely go off of damage done, and Duncan should be ahead.
UFC Vegas 75 Pick: Duncan
Arman Tsarukyan (19-3-0) v. Joaquim Silva (12-3-0)
Arman Tsarukyan - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 19 wins
Joaquim Silva - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 69" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Most expect Tsarukyan to have his way with Silva in this one. While I believe Tsarukyan wins, I do not think it will be an easy fight. He is better everywhere the fight goes, but Silva is not far behind and only needs to catch Tsarukyan once. I find it difficult to see Tsarukyan paying off his salary as the highest-priced fighter without an early, Round 1 finish, but I like him to win.
UFC Vegas 75 Pick: Tsarukyan
Marvin Vettori (19-5-1) v. Jared Cannonier (16-6-0)
Marvin Vettori - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 19 wins
Jared Cannonier - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 77" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect this to be a Fight of the Night candidate and for it to reach the 25-minute mark and judges' scorecards. Cannonier has upped his volume of late and will need to do so again, as Vettori has never been finished and has one of the best chins the UFC has ever seen. Vettori can win this fight on the feet but would find more and much easier success shooting for takedowns and keeping control. I like Vettori to win at least four rounds and shatter value at his price point.
UFC Vegas 75 Pick: Vettori
For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our UFC Vegas 75 DraftKings preview, or test your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.
FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
